Rankings/Iowa City, IA

Iowa City, IA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 26980Compare

Risk Rank: #41 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +24

60score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Iowa City experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 2 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Iowa City's housing market shows average risk, ranking 41st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permit growth and price momentum. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permit Growth

p97 (highest risk decile)

YoY permit change

Price Momentum

p81 (elevated risk)

12-month HPI change

Permits per Capita

p79 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking +16% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+9.8%p59

Days on Market YoY

+16.4%p77

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.3%p70

Months in status34

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum81

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth97

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita79

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability8

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment21

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration77

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+4.2%	p81
Permit Growth	+80.9%	p97
Permits/1K Pop	7.20	p79
Affordability	0.21	p8
Employment	+1.0%	p21
Net AGI Migration	-$41K	p77

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+80.9%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+9.8%

Days on Market YoY+16.4%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	50	86	5	7	73	76
2025-10	Ress	44	89	5	7	40	76
2025-08	Hyp	44	84	5	7	42	76
2025-07	Exp	40	76	5	7	25	76
2025-05	Exp	41	83	5	8	24	76
2025-04	Hyp	42	81	5	8	35	76
2025-03	Rec	38	70	5	7	18	76
2025-01	Rec	40	79	5	7	21	76
2024-11	Hyp	32	13	5	6	42	76
2024-09	Rec	35	21	5	7	50	76
2024-07	Exp	40	34	5	7	71	76
2024-05	Exp	36	29	5	6	52	76
2024-02	Rec	29	4	5	6	32	76
2023-12	Rec	35	30	5	8	40	76
2023-10	Exp	39	32	5	8	61	76
2023-08	Exp	42	39	5	7	78	76
2023-07	Rec	46	56	5	7	79	76
2023-05	Rec	42	47	5	8	65	76
2023-04	Exp	40	36	5	8	68	76
2023-02	Exp	50	72	5	11	84	76
2023-01	Rec	50	74	5	11	82	76
2022-11	Rec	45	62	5	8	69	76
2022-10	Exp	42	50	5	8	65	76
2022-08	Exp	37	11	5	5	76	76
2022-05	Rec	41	13	5	7	94	76
2022-03	Rec	34	2	5	5	68	76
2022-02	Exp	34	2	5	5	63	76
2021-12	Exp	36	7	4	8	70	75
2021-10	Rec	37	5	4	8	77	75
2021-08	Rec	36	4	4	9	76	75
2021-06	Exp	40	8	4	11	90	75
2021-04	Exp	40	6	4	11	91	75
2021-03	Rec	36	1	4	10	74	75
2021-01	Rec	34	2	4	10	64	75
2020-10	Exp	34	2	4	11	64	75
2020-08	Exp	33	2	4	11	58	75
2020-06	Rec	30	7	4	12	31	75
2020-04	Rec	30	5	4	12	37	75
2020-03	Hyp	34	5	4	12	60	75
2020-01	Rec	39	5	4	12	88	75
2019-11	Rec	34	5	4	14	65	64
2019-08	Rec	34	3	4	14	66	64
2019-07	Hyp	36	5	4	14	76	64
2019-05	Ress	39	10	4	15	93	64
2019-03	Ress	41	19	4	16	95	64
2019-02	Exp	43	24	4	16	98	64
2019-01	Exp	43	30	4	16	94	64

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022