Rankings/Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN

Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN

NeutralTier 1CBSA 26900Compare

Risk Rank: #109 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -1

52score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Indianapolis's housing market shows average risk, ranking 109th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Indianapolis experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+26% YoY) and days on market are up +7% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

3 months in current phase·from Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permits per capita, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp70

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap67

Permits per 1,000 residents

Employmentp58

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+26% YoY) and days on market are up +7% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY

+25.8%p75

Days on Market YoY

+6.7%p61

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.6%p73

Months in status39

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+3.0%p49

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-1.5%p51

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

5.60p67

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.23p15

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.1%p58

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$18Kp70

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-1.5%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 27.5%

6 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Indianapolis's 11 counties show moderate divergence — Hamilton County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Madison County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.2

11 of 11 counties scored

Indianapolis, IN shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Hamilton County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Madison County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Boone County<5%	82	High Risk	3.5%	90	70	90
Hancock County<5%	78	High Risk	4.0%	70	90	50
Hamilton CountyRisk Driver	65	Elevated	17.1%	60	30	80
Tipton County<5%	50	Average	0.7%	100	80	0
Brown County<5%	50	Average	0.7%	80	60	20
Shelby County<5%	48	Average	2.1%	30	100	10
Morgan County<5%	42	Below Average	3.4%	50	50	40
Hendricks County	42	Below Average	8.6%	0	40	60
Johnson County	40	Below Average	7.8%	10	20	70
Marion County	35	Below Average	45.8%	20	10	100
Madison CountyStabilizer	18	Low Risk	6.2%	40	0	30

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	52	54	35	14	50	93
2025-09	Rec	48	61	35	14	18	93
2025-07	Ress	54	67	35	14	51	93
2025-05	Ress	58	70	35	14	72	93
2025-04	Rec	56	69	35	14	60	93
2025-03	Hyp	58	82	35	15	57	93
2025-01	Hyp	59	76	35	15	72	93
2024-12	Rec	53	62	35	14	48	93
2024-10	Rec	49	45	35	14	45	93
2024-09	Hyp	46	38	35	14	34	93
2024-07	Rec	47	50	35	14	27	93
2024-05	Ress	44	33	35	14	28	93
2024-03	Hyp	45	29	35	14	36	93
2024-02	Exp	45	34	35	14	29	93
2023-12	Exp	50	67	35	15	27	93
2023-09	Rec	47	49	35	14	27	93
2023-07	Rec	47	39	35	14	37	93
2023-06	Hyp	49	52	35	15	34	93
2023-04	Hyp	49	60	35	15	28	93
2023-02	Ress	47	46	35	15	30	93
2022-12	Ress	49	50	35	14	36	93
2022-09	Ress	50	70	35	14	25	93
2022-06	Hyp	50	62	35	13	32	93
2022-05	Exp	50	60	35	13	33	93
2022-03	Exp	50	54	35	13	39	93
2021-12	Rec	44	53	35	12	43	60
2021-10	Rec	43	49	35	12	40	60
2021-09	Exp	44	45	35	12	51	60
2021-07	Exp	44	48	35	12	46	60
2021-04	Rec	45	64	35	12	37	60
2021-02	Rec	43	62	35	10	27	60
2020-12	Exp	44	83	35	17	32	32
2020-10	Exp	42	82	35	17	23	32
2020-09	Rec	44	86	35	16	28	32
2020-07	Rec	44	84	35	16	32	32
2020-06	Exp	44	73	35	15	42	32
2020-04	Exp	44	70	35	15	49	32
2020-03	Rec	45	68	35	14	55	32
2020-01	Rec	45	72	35	14	53	32
2019-11	Exp	41	78	35	14	29	25
2019-09	Exp	44	82	35	13	46	25
2019-08	Rec	43	83	35	13	37	25
2019-06	Rec	42	86	35	14	31	25
2019-03	Ress	42	75	35	13	39	25
2019-02	Hyp	40	78	35	13	25	25
2019-01	Exp	42	82	35	13	33	25

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023