Rankings/Idaho Falls, ID

Idaho Falls, ID

NeutralTier 1CBSA 26820Compare

Risk Rank: #137 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -23

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Idaho Falls experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 2 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Idaho Falls's housing market shows average risk, ranking 137th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+12% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permits per capita and affordability. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p90 (highest risk decile)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordability

p70 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentum

p53 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +12% pace with homes taking +11% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+11.6%p61

Days on Market YoY

+10.8%p69

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.6%p56

Months in status12

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum53

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth2

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita90

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability70

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment41

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration45

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.5%	p53
Permit Growth	-39.7%	p2
Permits/1K Pop	9.20	p90
Affordability	0.30	p70
Employment	+0.5%	p41
Net AGI Migration	+$22K	p45

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-39.7%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+11.6%

Days on Market YoY+10.8%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Idaho Falls's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Bonneville County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Butte County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.9Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Idaho Falls, ID shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Bonneville County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by affordability), while Butte County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Bonneville CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	33.3%	50	50	100
Jefferson County	50	Average	33.3%	0	100	50
Butte CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	33.3%	100	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	60	33	84	70	31	44
2025-10	Hyp	54	19	84	70	13	44
2025-09	Rec	56	25	84	70	16	44
2025-08	Ress	58	32	84	70	24	44
2025-06	Ress	55	27	84	66	10	44
2025-05	Hyp	59	40	84	66	25	44
2025-04	Ress	60	52	84	66	15	44
2025-02	Ress	56	38	84	66	6	44
2025-01	Hyp	56	32	84	65	13	44
2024-11	Hyp	74	95	84	72	49	44
2024-10	Exp	74	97	84	72	50	44
2024-09	Hyp	63	72	84	68	15	44
2024-08	Rec	59	47	84	68	13	44
2024-06	Exp	58	4	84	66	56	44
2024-04	Exp	56	4	84	66	43	44
2024-03	Rec	56	5	84	69	34	44
2024-01	Rec	54	7	84	69	23	44
2023-12	Exp	51	1	84	77	3	44
2023-10	Exp	51	2	84	77	4	44
2023-09	Rec	53	5	84	82	7	44
2023-07	Rec	54	3	84	82	11	44
2023-05	Hyp	55	4	84	84	16	44
2023-03	Hyp	61	4	84	86	50	44
2023-02	Ress	57	4	84	86	26	44
2022-12	Ress	55	5	84	83	17	44
2022-10	Hyp	58	10	84	83	27	44
2022-08	Hyp	68	50	84	86	44	44
2022-07	Ress	68	52	84	86	46	44
2022-05	Ress	73	87	84	90	37	44
2022-03	Hyp	72	95	84	88	26	44
2022-01	Hyp	75	97	84	88	40	44
2021-11	Ress	73	98	84	84	32	41
2021-09	Ress	73	99	84	85	32	41
2021-08	Exp	73	99	84	85	34	41
2021-07	Rec	74	99	84	85	36	41
2021-05	Rec	73	99	84	82	37	41
2021-04	Exp	72	99	84	82	32	41
2021-02	Exp	67	99	84	78	1	41
2020-12	Rec	66	99	84	79	1	36
2020-10	Rec	66	99	84	79	0	36
2020-07	Exp	66	100	84	76	0	36
2020-05	Exp	64	100	84	69	0	36
2020-04	Hyp	64	100	84	69	1	36
2020-03	Rec	65	100	84	68	4	36
2020-02	Exp	65	100	84	68	7	36
2019-12	Exp	64	100	84	66	1	37
2019-11	Rec	64	100	84	66	1	37
2019-09	Rec	64	99	84	63	4	37
2019-08	Exp	64	99	84	63	1	37
2019-06	Exp	64	99	84	60	7	37
2019-04	Rec	63	99	84	60	3	37
2019-02	Rec	63	98	84	54	8	37
2019-01	Rec	64	98	84	54	15	37

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022