US Metro Real Estate Intelligence
Rankings/Idaho Falls, ID

Idaho Falls, ID

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 26820Compare
Risk Rank: #26 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m): +3
62score
Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Idaho Falls's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 26th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Idaho Falls experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is declining (-8% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession
1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

2019202020212022202320242025

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and permits per capita, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp92
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Permits per Capitap91
Permits per 1,000 residents
Affordabilityp70
Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-8% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable
Active Listings YoY
-8.3%p39
Days on Market YoY
+8.1%p64
Months in status1
Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced
Rent vs. Price Growth
-1.1%p47
Months in status1
Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.
Factor Details
Lower riskHigher risk
Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk
Price MomentumElevated
+2.3%p67

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk
-29.2%p9

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk
9.87p91

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated
0.31p70

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk
-1.4%p92

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg
+$29Kp40

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards
-3.7Normal
Rate Change (YoY)
-38 bpsNormal
Mortgage Risk Premium
+199 bpsElevated
Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio
0.90Elevated
Completion-Permit Divergence
-5.9 ppNormal
Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2
Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling
YoY Permit Growth
-29.2%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated
Largest SectorRetail Trade 23.4%
QCEW 2024 annual averages
Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History
MonthScore
2025-1246
2025-1054
2025-0956
2025-0858
2025-0655
2025-0559
2025-0460
2025-0256
2025-0156
2024-1174
2024-1074
2024-0963
2024-0859
2024-0658
2024-0456
2024-0356
2024-0154
2023-1251
2023-1051
2023-0953
2023-0754
2023-0555
2023-0361
2023-0257
2022-1255
2022-1058
2022-0868
2022-0768
2022-0573
2022-0372
2022-0175
2021-1173
2021-0973
2021-0873
2021-0774
2021-0573
2021-0472
2021-0267
2020-1266
2020-1066
2020-0766
2020-0564
2020-0464
2020-0365
2020-0265
2019-1264
2019-1164
2019-0964
2019-0864
2019-0664
2019-0463
2019-0263
2019-0164
Data Vintages
Price (HPI)2026-Q1
Permits2026-05
Income2024
Employment2026-05
Migration2023