Rankings/Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX

Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX

NeutralTier 1CBSA 26420Compare

Risk Rank: #169 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +3

47score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Houston's housing market shows average risk, ranking 169th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Recovery underway but inventory still elevated — watch for follow-through.

Houston experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is elevated (+17% YoY) and days on market are up +8% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and affordability, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap88

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp66

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growthp53

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+17% YoY) and days on market are up +8% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+17.1%p67

Days on Market YoY

+8.5%p65

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.0%p50

Months in status36

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+1.1%p19

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-0.3%p53

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

8.73p88

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.30p66

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.4%p43

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$198Kp15

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-0.2%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorRetail Trade 27.7%

7 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Houston's 10 counties show moderate divergence — Montgomery County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Brazoria County anchors the lower end.

Moderate10.7Limited data

10 of 10 counties scored

Houston, TX shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Montgomery County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Brazoria County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Montgomery CountyRisk Driver	70	Elevated	9.2%	100	11	78
Fort Bend County	67	Elevated	12.0%	67	56	67
Galveston County<5%	61	Elevated	4.8%	44	89	89
Austin County<5%	53	Average	0.4%	33	78	33
Chambers County<5%	53	Average	0.7%	89	67	11
Harris County	44	Below Average	65.0%	78	0	100
San Jacinto County<5%	42	Below Average	0.4%	11	33	22
Waller County<5%	42	Below Average	0.8%	0	100	56
Brazoria CountyStabilizer	36	Below Average	5.3%	22	44	44
Liberty County<5%	34	Below Average	1.4%	56	22	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	44	23	38	67	41	9
2025-10	Hyp	44	23	38	67	39	9
2025-08	Hyp	46	22	38	67	55	9
2025-05	Ress	44	22	38	65	43	9
2025-03	Ress	49	54	38	68	41	9
2025-01	Hyp	44	31	38	68	32	9
2024-11	Rec	44	25	38	70	38	9
2024-09	Rec	44	26	38	69	36	9
2024-08	Hyp	43	27	38	69	28	9
2024-06	Ress	40	13	38	68	25	9
2024-04	Ress	41	12	38	68	33	9
2024-03	Hyp	46	35	38	73	33	9
2024-01	Exp	44	29	38	73	30	9
2023-11	Exp	41	24	38	64	24	9
2023-09	Rec	39	27	38	64	10	9
2023-07	Rec	40	31	38	64	12	9
2023-06	Hyp	42	44	38	66	8	9
2023-04	Hyp	43	53	38	66	6	9
2023-03	Ress	43	53	38	68	4	9
2023-01	Ress	40	35	38	68	4	9
2022-10	Ress	45	59	38	73	6	9
2022-09	Hyp	44	53	38	72	7	9
2022-07	Hyp	44	56	38	72	6	9
2022-06	Exp	40	30	38	68	9	9
2022-04	Exp	40	24	38	68	14	9
2022-01	Rec	46	43	38	73	29	9
2021-11	Rec	40	19	38	65	23	12
2021-10	Exp	40	18	38	65	22	12
2021-08	Exp	41	9	38	66	36	12
2021-05	Rec	52	11	38	72	94	12
2021-03	Rec	48	9	38	73	70	12
2021-01	Exp	47	12	38	73	63	12
2020-11	Exp	61	18	38	66	66	91
2020-10	Rec	62	20	38	66	70	91
2020-08	Rec	62	25	38	67	66	91
2020-05	Rec	60	49	38	69	25	91
2020-04	Exp	58	47	38	69	20	91
2020-02	Exp	58	33	38	69	29	91
2020-01	Rec	58	36	38	69	26	91
2019-11	Rec	56	22	38	68	25	96
2019-08	Rec	57	27	38	70	24	96
2019-05	Rec	56	32	38	69	18	96
2019-03	Hyp	57	36	38	70	18	96
2019-01	Hyp	57	39	38	70	14	96

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023