Rankings/Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX

Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX

NeutralTier 1CBSA 26420Compare

Risk Rank: #168 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +3

47score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Houston experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 2 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Houston's housing market shows average risk, ranking 168th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permits per capita and affordability. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p88 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordability

p67 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growth

p53 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+17% YoY) and days on market are up +8% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+17.1%p67

Days on Market YoY

+8.5%p65

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.6%p56

Months in status36

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum22

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth53

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita88

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability67

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment42

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration9

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+0.6%	p22
Permit Growth	-0.3%	p53
Permits/1K Pop	8.73	p88
Affordability	0.29	p67
Employment	+0.4%	p42
Net AGI Migration	+$558K	p9

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-0.2%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY+17.1%

Days on Market YoY+8.5%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Houston's 10 counties show moderate divergence — Galveston County carries the most risk (Elevated) while San Jacinto County anchors the lower end.

Moderate16.0

10 of 10 counties scored

Houston, TX shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Galveston County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while San Jacinto County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Galveston CountyRisk Driver	74	Elevated	10.0%	44	89	89
Montgomery County	63	Elevated	10.0%	100	11	78
Fort Bend County	63	Elevated	10.0%	67	56	67
Harris County	59	Elevated	10.0%	78	0	100
Chambers County	56	Elevated	10.0%	89	67	11
Waller County	52	Average	10.0%	0	100	56
Austin County	48	Average	10.0%	33	78	33
Brazoria County	37	Below Average	10.0%	22	44	44
Liberty County	26	Below Average	10.0%	56	22	0
San Jacinto CountyStabilizer	22	Low Risk	10.0%	11	33	22

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	44	23	38	67	41	9
2025-10	Hyp	44	23	38	67	39	9
2025-08	Hyp	46	22	38	67	55	9
2025-05	Ress	44	22	38	65	43	9
2025-03	Ress	49	54	38	68	41	9
2025-01	Hyp	44	31	38	68	32	9
2024-11	Rec	44	25	38	70	38	9
2024-09	Rec	44	26	38	69	36	9
2024-08	Hyp	43	27	38	69	28	9
2024-06	Ress	40	13	38	68	25	9
2024-04	Ress	41	12	38	68	33	9
2024-03	Hyp	46	35	38	73	33	9
2024-01	Exp	44	29	38	73	30	9
2023-11	Exp	41	24	38	64	24	9
2023-09	Rec	39	27	38	64	10	9
2023-07	Rec	40	31	38	64	12	9
2023-06	Hyp	42	44	38	66	8	9
2023-04	Hyp	43	53	38	66	6	9
2023-03	Ress	43	53	38	68	4	9
2023-01	Ress	40	35	38	68	4	9
2022-10	Ress	45	59	38	73	6	9
2022-09	Hyp	44	53	38	72	7	9
2022-07	Hyp	44	56	38	72	6	9
2022-06	Exp	40	30	38	68	9	9
2022-04	Exp	40	24	38	68	14	9
2022-01	Rec	46	43	38	73	29	9
2021-11	Rec	40	19	38	65	23	12
2021-10	Exp	40	18	38	65	22	12
2021-08	Exp	41	9	38	66	36	12
2021-05	Rec	52	11	38	72	94	12
2021-03	Rec	48	9	38	73	70	12
2021-01	Exp	47	12	38	73	63	12
2020-11	Exp	61	18	38	66	66	91
2020-10	Rec	62	20	38	66	70	91
2020-08	Rec	62	25	38	67	66	91
2020-05	Rec	60	49	38	69	25	91
2020-04	Exp	58	47	38	69	20	91
2020-02	Exp	58	33	38	69	29	91
2020-01	Rec	58	36	38	69	26	91
2019-11	Rec	56	22	38	68	25	96
2019-08	Rec	57	27	38	70	24	96
2019-05	Rec	56	32	38	69	18	96
2019-03	Hyp	57	36	38	70	18	96
2019-01	Hyp	57	39	38	70	14	96

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022