Rankings/Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux, LA

Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux, LA

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 26380Compare

Risk Rank: #37 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +14

61score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Houma experienced a market correction from early 2024 through mid-2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 1 month·Previously: Hypersupply

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Houma's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 37th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+13% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Elevated, driven primarily by employment and migration. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Employment

p88 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration

p76 (elevated risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p64 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking -4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+12.8%p62

Days on Market YoY

-3.5%p41

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.9%p78

Months in status7

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum64

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth42

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita36

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability62

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment88

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration76

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.3%	p64
Permit Growth	-5.0%	p42
Permits/1K Pop	2.90	p36
Affordability	0.29	p62
Employment	-0.7%	p88
Net AGI Migration	-$39K	p76

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-5.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY+12.8%

Days on Market YoY-3.5%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	58	67	46	62	60	75
2025-10	Exp	62	70	46	62	84	75
2025-09	Rec	55	65	46	62	45	75
2025-07	Rec	59	54	46	62	79	75
2025-06	Hyp	56	58	46	62	55	75
2025-04	Hyp	54	64	46	62	42	75
2025-01	Hyp	52	3	46	58	90	75
2024-12	Rec	47	1	46	58	64	75
2024-11	Hyp	48	1	46	58	71	75
2024-10	Rec	48	0	46	58	73	75
2024-08	Hyp	50	4	46	61	79	75
2024-06	Hyp	50	2	46	59	83	75
2024-04	Ress	50	3	46	59	76	75
2024-02	Ress	47	31	46	69	24	75
2024-01	Hyp	47	31	46	69	23	75
2023-11	Hyp	46	27	46	67	21	75
2023-08	Hyp	40	9	46	61	14	75
2023-05	Hyp	43	26	46	65	10	75
2023-02	Hyp	42	17	46	67	12	75
2023-01	Ress	40	11	46	67	5	75
2022-11	Ress	42	21	46	69	6	75
2022-08	Exp	55	5	46	68	99	75
2022-06	Exp	54	1	46	67	99	75
2022-03	Exp	56	3	46	76	100	75
2021-12	Rec	51	1	46	51	100	73
2021-10	Rec	51	1	46	51	100	73
2021-09	Exp	52	1	46	54	100	73
2021-07	Exp	47	1	46	54	73	73
2021-04	Rec	52	1	46	59	97	73
2021-02	Rec	48	2	46	66	63	73
2021-01	Exp	48	4	46	66	62	73
2020-11	Exp	52	6	46	92	71	62
2020-09	Rec	58	27	46	96	82	62
2020-07	Rec	56	20	46	96	76	62
2020-04	Rec	48	21	46	96	30	62
2020-03	Exp	56	3	46	96	90	62
2020-01	Exp	54	3	46	96	79	62
2019-10	Rec	54	12	46	96	73	64
2019-08	Rec	51	12	46	96	55	64
2019-06	Exp	56	7	46	97	87	64
2019-04	Exp	56	4	46	97	89	64
2019-01	Exp	55	7	46	98	79	64

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022