Rankings/Hilton Head Island-Bluffton-Port Royal, SC

Hilton Head Island-Bluffton-Port Royal, SC

NeutralTier 1CBSA 25940Compare

Risk Rank: #158 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -2

48score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Hilton Head Island experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 1 month·Previously: Hypersupply

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Hilton Head Island's housing market shows average risk, ranking 158th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+15% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permits per capita and affordability. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p97 (highest risk decile)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordability

p78 (elevated risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growth

p53 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +15% pace with homes taking +18% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+14.9%p64

Days on Market YoY

+17.7%p78

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.2%p32

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum49

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth53

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita97

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability78

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment2

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration10

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.3%	p49
Permit Growth	-0.3%	p53
Permits/1K Pop	13.33	p97
Affordability	0.31	p78
Employment	+2.2%	p2
Net AGI Migration	+$416K	p10

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-0.3%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+14.9%

Days on Market YoY+17.7%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	49	56	51	78	3	10
2025-10	Rec	51	67	51	78	3	10
2025-09	Hyp	52	71	51	78	7	10
2025-07	Hyp	65	81	51	78	74	10
2025-06	Ress	60	75	51	74	56	10
2025-04	Ress	57	96	51	74	18	10
2025-01	Rec	52	77	51	79	3	10
2024-12	Hyp	50	53	51	76	12	10
2024-10	Hyp	48	44	51	76	14	10
2024-07	Hyp	54	33	51	74	64	10
2024-05	Ress	48	5	51	65	64	10
2024-03	Ress	62	59	51	74	84	10
2023-12	Ress	60	76	51	81	45	10
2023-09	Hyp	59	99	51	80	17	10
2023-08	Rec	57	99	51	80	9	10
2023-07	Hyp	56	95	51	80	6	10
2023-05	Hyp	57	99	51	76	10	10
2023-03	Ress	57	100	51	80	4	10
2023-01	Ress	58	99	51	80	12	10
2022-10	Ress	54	88	51	59	20	10
2022-07	Hyp	60	94	51	61	49	10
2022-06	Exp	55	72	51	50	52	10
2022-04	Exp	56	74	51	50	59	10
2022-02	Rec	60	91	51	53	62	10
2021-12	Rec	63	82	51	67	74	11
2021-11	Exp	61	75	51	67	69	11
2021-09	Exp	57	73	51	66	47	11
2021-06	Exp	62	77	51	65	76	11
2021-05	Rec	53	76	51	65	22	11
2021-03	Rec	52	56	51	62	39	11
2020-12	Rec	52	76	51	45	33	12
2020-09	Rec	48	27	51	40	61	12
2020-06	Rec	51	62	51	41	47	12
2020-05	Exp	54	54	51	41	70	12
2020-03	Exp	46	43	51	42	36	12
2020-02	Rec	46	40	51	42	34	12
2019-12	Rec	45	42	51	43	25	13
2019-10	Exp	45	31	51	43	37	13
2019-08	Exp	43	44	51	38	17	13
2019-07	Rec	48	68	51	38	21	13
2019-05	Rec	48	55	51	41	36	13
2019-03	Exp	46	64	51	43	12	13
2019-01	Exp	49	75	51	43	17	13

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022