Rankings/Hilton Head Island-Bluffton-Port Royal, SC

Hilton Head Island-Bluffton-Port Royal, SC

NeutralTier 1CBSA 25940Compare

Risk Rank: #146 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↓ -10

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Hilton Head Island's housing market shows average risk, ranking 146th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recession. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Active correction with rising inventory — downside risk is elevated.

Hilton Head Island experienced a market correction from mid-2026 through mid-2026.

Inventory is elevated (+21% YoY) and days on market are up +7% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recession

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and affordability, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap95

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp77

Mortgage payment / income

Employmentp59

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+21% YoY) and days on market are up +7% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+21.1%p71

Days on Market YoY

+6.8%p62

Months in status1

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.1%p63

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.0%p35

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-13.0%p27

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

11.93p95

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.32p77

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.2%p59

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$309Kp10

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-13.0%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both sides are decelerating. Broad market slowdown — builders and buyers are both pulling back simultaneously.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorAccommodation & Food 17.7%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Ress	47	31	59	77	9	10
2025-12	Rec	40	3	53	75	3	10
2025-11	Hyp	49	56	51	78	3	10
2025-10	Rec	51	67	51	78	3	10
2025-09	Hyp	52	71	51	78	7	10
2025-07	Hyp	65	81	51	78	74	10
2025-06	Ress	60	75	51	74	56	10
2025-04	Ress	57	96	51	74	18	10
2025-01	Rec	52	77	51	79	3	10
2024-12	Hyp	50	53	51	76	12	10
2024-10	Hyp	48	44	51	76	14	10
2024-07	Hyp	54	33	51	74	64	10
2024-05	Ress	48	5	51	65	64	10
2024-03	Ress	62	59	51	74	84	10
2023-12	Ress	60	76	51	81	45	10
2023-09	Hyp	59	99	51	80	17	10
2023-08	Rec	57	99	51	80	9	10
2023-07	Hyp	56	95	51	80	6	10
2023-05	Hyp	57	99	51	76	10	10
2023-03	Ress	57	100	51	80	4	10
2023-01	Ress	58	99	51	80	12	10
2022-10	Ress	54	88	51	59	20	10
2022-07	Hyp	60	94	51	61	49	10
2022-06	Exp	55	72	51	50	52	10
2022-04	Exp	56	74	51	50	59	10
2022-02	Rec	60	91	51	53	62	10
2021-12	Rec	63	82	51	67	74	11
2021-11	Exp	61	75	51	67	69	11
2021-09	Exp	57	73	51	66	47	11
2021-06	Exp	62	77	51	65	76	11
2021-05	Rec	53	76	51	65	22	11
2021-03	Rec	52	56	51	62	39	11
2020-12	Rec	52	76	51	45	33	12
2020-09	Rec	48	27	51	40	61	12
2020-06	Rec	51	62	51	41	47	12
2020-05	Exp	54	54	51	41	70	12
2020-03	Exp	46	43	51	42	36	12
2020-02	Rec	46	40	51	42	34	12
2019-12	Rec	45	42	51	43	25	13
2019-10	Exp	45	31	51	43	37	13
2019-08	Exp	43	44	51	38	17	13
2019-07	Rec	48	68	51	38	21	13
2019-05	Rec	48	55	51	41	36	13
2019-03	Exp	46	64	51	43	12	13
2019-01	Exp	49	75	51	43	17	13

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023