Rankings/Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC

Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 25860Compare

Risk Rank: #37 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -15

61score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Hickory's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 37th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Recovery underway but inventory still elevated — watch for follow-through.

Hickory experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is elevated (+25% YoY) and days on market are up +7% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and affordability, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap86

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp82

Mortgage payment / income

Employmentp75

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+25% YoY) and days on market are up +7% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+25.2%p75

Days on Market YoY

+7.0%p62

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.5%p90

Months in status11

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.4%p26

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+9.6%p70

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

8.23p86

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.32p82

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.3%p75

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$53Kp29

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+9.6%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorManufacturing 34.7%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Hickory's counties diverge significantly — Catawba County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Caldwell County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High35.2Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Hickory, NC shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Catawba County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Caldwell County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Catawba CountyRisk Driver	100	High Risk	44.4%	100	100	100
Alexander County	42	Below Average	9.9%	67	67	0
Burke County	42	Below Average	23.8%	0	33	67
Caldwell CountyStabilizer	16	Low Risk	21.9%	33	0	33

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	60	28	71	83	64	34
2025-10	Ress	56	24	71	83	45	34
2025-09	Hyp	62	42	71	83	59	34
2025-07	Hyp	71	80	71	83	76	34
2025-06	Ress	67	60	71	81	78	34
2025-04	Ress	60	37	71	81	59	34
2025-01	Hyp	74	92	71	83	85	34
2024-11	Hyp	76	98	71	82	93	34
2024-08	Ress	68	50	71	79	93	34
2024-06	Ress	74	89	71	81	87	34
2024-05	Hyp	74	90	71	81	88	34
2024-04	Ress	74	87	71	81	94	34
2024-02	Ress	64	28	71	75	98	34
2023-12	Hyp	68	41	71	83	96	34
2023-11	Rec	68	48	71	83	91	34
2023-10	Hyp	67	50	71	83	86	34
2023-08	Rec	70	60	71	83	92	34
2023-06	Hyp	70	63	71	82	92	34
2023-04	Hyp	71	76	71	82	82	34
2023-02	Ress	70	94	71	82	57	34
2022-12	Ress	63	88	71	68	40	34
2022-09	Ress	64	86	71	68	47	34
2022-06	Exp	62	80	71	63	49	34
2022-04	Exp	66	82	71	63	70	34
2022-02	Rec	67	75	71	60	85	34
2021-12	Rec	68	66	72	69	81	41
2021-09	Exp	64	61	72	69	67	41
2021-07	Exp	64	66	72	69	60	41
2021-04	Rec	56	50	72	68	27	41
2021-02	Rec	57	60	72	67	25	41
2021-01	Exp	58	59	72	67	30	41
2020-11	Exp	58	63	72	64	29	39
2020-08	Rec	60	68	72	62	42	39
2020-06	Rec	65	89	72	64	49	39
2020-04	Exp	68	88	72	64	64	39
2020-02	Exp	71	94	72	63	78	39
2019-11	Rec	71	96	72	62	79	41
2019-09	Rec	70	90	72	61	82	41
2019-08	Exp	72	93	72	61	85	41
2019-06	Exp	68	92	72	59	64	41
2019-05	Rec	68	88	72	59	69	41
2019-03	Rec	64	80	72	58	56	41
2019-01	Rec	64	80	72	58	59	41

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023