Rankings/Hattiesburg, MS

Hattiesburg, MS

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 25620Compare

Risk Rank: #261 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↓ -10

32score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Hattiesburg's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 261st of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+14% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Hattiesburg experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking -3% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and affordability, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp71

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp60

Mortgage payment / income

Migrationp52

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking -3% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+14.0%p64

Days on Market YoY

-3.4%p40

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+5.4%p98

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

-1.4%p1

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-29.9%p8

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

0.66p0

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.29p60

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.4%p71

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$3Kp52

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-29.9%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 31.6%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Hattiesburg's counties diverge significantly — Forrest County (Elevated) contrasts sharply with Perry County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High18.9Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Hattiesburg, MS shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Forrest County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Perry County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Forrest CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	50.4%	100	0	100
Lamar County	38	Below Average	42.3%	0	50	50
Perry CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	7.4%	—	100	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Exp	36	12	9	73	70	52
2025-10	Rec	45	48	15	68	78	59
2025-08	Rec	33	24	15	68	33	59
2025-05	Rec	42	49	15	69	59	59
2025-04	Ress	48	60	15	69	87	59
2025-03	Hyp	56	100	15	79	84	59
2025-01	Hyp	57	99	15	79	91	59
2024-10	Ress	46	39	15	67	96	59
2024-08	Ress	57	99	15	72	95	59
2024-07	Hyp	57	100	15	72	95	59
2024-05	Ress	56	98	15	68	94	59
2024-03	Ress	51	83	15	63	86	59
2023-12	Ress	48	59	15	78	76	59
2023-10	Hyp	49	58	15	78	84	59
2023-08	Rec	40	11	15	69	86	59
2023-06	Hyp	32	5	15	65	50	59
2023-04	Hyp	33	16	15	65	44	59
2023-03	Ress	45	62	15	76	57	59
2023-01	Ress	44	67	15	76	43	59
2022-11	Exp	48	70	15	70	71	59
2022-10	Hyp	45	71	15	70	56	59
2022-09	Rec	45	77	15	74	45	59
2022-08	Ress	42	67	15	74	39	59
2022-06	Hyp	38	22	15	68	62	59
2022-05	Exp	38	23	15	68	65	59
2022-03	Rec	37	15	15	67	67	59
2022-01	Rec	38	19	15	67	67	59
2021-10	Rec	29	12	15	49	43	55
2021-09	Exp	36	37	15	56	54	55
2021-07	Exp	33	31	15	56	42	55
2021-04	Rec	31	19	15	55	42	55
2021-02	Rec	24	9	15	56	11	55
2020-12	Exp	29	16	15	72	14	55
2020-10	Exp	34	41	15	72	18	55
2020-09	Rec	36	50	15	74	23	55
2020-07	Rec	31	16	15	74	24	55
2020-04	Rec	36	28	15	76	41	55
2020-01	Rec	50	57	15	78	94	55
2019-12	Exp	39	4	15	74	86	56
2019-10	Exp	38	2	15	74	82	56
2019-07	Rec	38	5	15	79	74	56
2019-05	Rec	34	8	15	78	47	56
2019-03	Exp	38	7	15	77	70	56
2019-01	Exp	35	12	15	77	49	56

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023