Rankings/Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA

Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 25420Compare

Risk Rank: #217 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):— 0

42score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Harrisburg's housing market shows average risk, ranking 217th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Harrisburg experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +5% pace with homes taking +0% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and migration, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump77

12-month HPI change

Migrationp69

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employmentp40

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +5% pace with homes taking +0% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+5.3%p54

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p45

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.9%p77

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+2.6%p77

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-11.0%p34

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.08p21

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.23p10

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.3%p40

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$16Kp69

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-11.0%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 23%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Harrisburg's counties diverge significantly — Perry County (Elevated) contrasts sharply with Dauphin County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High18.5Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Harrisburg, PA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Perry County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Dauphin County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Cumberland County	62	Elevated	44.4%	0	50	100
Perry CountyRisk Driver	62	Elevated	7.6%	100	100	0
Dauphin CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	47.9%	50	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Rec	38	78	15	10	32	69
2025-10	Rec	41	81	27	10	26	71
2025-09	Hyp	39	75	27	10	19	71
2025-08	Rec	39	65	27	10	26	71
2025-06	Ress	42	84	27	10	24	71
2025-04	Ress	42	90	27	10	19	71
2025-03	Rec	36	58	27	9	21	71
2025-02	Ress	35	52	27	9	18	71
2025-01	Hyp	36	48	27	9	30	71
2024-12	Rec	35	47	27	10	22	71
2024-10	Hyp	39	65	27	9	30	71
2024-09	Ress	41	86	27	10	20	71
2024-07	Ress	44	77	27	10	47	71
2024-06	Hyp	41	55	27	9	49	71
2024-04	Hyp	46	56	27	9	77	71
2024-03	Exp	45	68	27	11	58	71
2024-01	Exp	43	67	27	11	47	71
2023-10	Exp	42	53	27	9	58	71
2023-07	Rec	47	77	27	9	62	71
2023-05	Rec	43	78	27	9	40	71
2023-03	Ress	42	70	27	10	42	71
2023-01	Exp	40	60	27	10	35	71
2022-12	Ress	37	53	27	11	25	71
2022-11	Hyp	37	54	27	11	27	71
2022-10	Exp	36	56	27	11	18	71
2022-08	Rec	34	35	27	10	28	71
2022-06	Rec	34	25	27	9	35	71
2022-05	Exp	35	26	27	9	44	71
2022-03	Exp	38	37	27	10	51	71
2022-02	Rec	38	31	27	10	54	71
2021-12	Rec	31	19	27	3	59	44
2021-11	Exp	34	20	27	3	76	44
2021-09	Exp	34	24	27	4	74	44
2021-06	Exp	26	16	27	3	36	44
2021-03	Exp	34	32	27	4	64	44
2020-12	Rec	34	20	27	8	68	49
2020-10	Rec	35	31	27	7	62	49
2020-09	Exp	37	45	27	8	61	49
2020-07	Exp	36	31	27	8	68	49
2020-05	Rec	36	31	27	7	71	49
2020-03	Rec	38	65	27	8	47	49
2019-12	Exp	30	37	27	7	37	41
2019-10	Exp	28	15	27	7	46	41
2019-09	Rec	31	31	27	7	47	41
2019-07	Rec	29	35	27	7	32	41
2019-06	Exp	28	22	27	7	36	41
2019-04	Exp	30	28	27	7	47	41
2019-03	Rec	28	18	27	6	40	41
2019-01	Rec	28	15	27	6	44	41

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023