Rankings/Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA

Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 25420Compare

Risk Rank: #252 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +3

38score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Harrisburg experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 3 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Harrisburg's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 252nd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+13% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by price momentum and migration. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p80 (elevated risk)

12-month HPI change

Migration

p71 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employment

p31 (below average risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking +14% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+13.3%p63

Days on Market YoY

+14.0%p74

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.9%p51

Months in status14

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum80

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth14

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita22

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability10

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment31

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration71

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+4.2%	p80
Permit Growth	-24.1%	p14
Permits/1K Pop	2.13	p22
Affordability	0.22	p10
Employment	+0.7%	p31
Net AGI Migration	-$20K	p71

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-24.1%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+13.3%

Days on Market YoY+14.0%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Harrisburg's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Perry County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Dauphin County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.9Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Harrisburg, PA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Perry County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Dauphin County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Perry CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	33.3%	100	100	0
Cumberland County	50	Average	33.3%	0	50	100
Dauphin CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	33.3%	50	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	41	82	27	10	25	71
2025-09	Hyp	39	75	27	10	19	71
2025-08	Rec	39	65	27	10	26	71
2025-06	Ress	42	84	27	10	24	71
2025-04	Ress	42	90	27	10	19	71
2025-03	Rec	36	58	27	9	21	71
2025-02	Ress	35	52	27	9	18	71
2025-01	Hyp	36	48	27	9	30	71
2024-12	Rec	35	47	27	10	22	71
2024-10	Hyp	39	65	27	9	30	71
2024-09	Ress	41	86	27	10	20	71
2024-07	Ress	44	77	27	10	47	71
2024-06	Hyp	41	55	27	9	49	71
2024-04	Hyp	46	56	27	9	77	71
2024-03	Exp	45	68	27	11	58	71
2024-01	Exp	43	67	27	11	47	71
2023-10	Exp	42	53	27	9	58	71
2023-07	Rec	47	77	27	9	62	71
2023-05	Rec	43	78	27	9	40	71
2023-03	Ress	42	70	27	10	42	71
2023-01	Exp	40	60	27	10	35	71
2022-12	Ress	37	53	27	11	25	71
2022-11	Hyp	37	54	27	11	27	71
2022-10	Exp	36	56	27	11	18	71
2022-08	Rec	34	35	27	10	28	71
2022-06	Rec	34	25	27	9	35	71
2022-05	Exp	35	26	27	9	44	71
2022-03	Exp	38	37	27	10	51	71
2022-02	Rec	38	31	27	10	54	71
2021-12	Rec	31	19	27	3	59	44
2021-11	Exp	34	20	27	3	76	44
2021-09	Exp	34	24	27	4	74	44
2021-06	Exp	26	16	27	3	36	44
2021-03	Exp	34	32	27	4	64	44
2020-12	Rec	34	20	27	8	68	49
2020-10	Rec	35	31	27	7	62	49
2020-09	Exp	37	45	27	8	61	49
2020-07	Exp	36	31	27	8	68	49
2020-05	Rec	36	31	27	7	71	49
2020-03	Rec	38	65	27	8	47	49
2019-12	Exp	30	37	27	7	37	41
2019-10	Exp	28	15	27	7	46	41
2019-09	Rec	31	31	27	7	47	41
2019-07	Rec	29	35	27	7	32	41
2019-06	Exp	28	22	27	7	36	41
2019-04	Exp	30	28	27	7	47	41
2019-03	Rec	28	18	27	6	40	41
2019-01	Rec	28	15	27	6	44	41

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022