Rankings/Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA

Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 25420Compare

Risk Rank: #128 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +11

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Harrisburg's housing market shows average risk, ranking 128th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Harrisburg experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and permit growth, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump81

12-month HPI change

Permit Growthp78

YoY permit change

Migrationp69

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+2.6%p51

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p45

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.2%p45

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+3.7%p81

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+20.3%p78

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.58p27

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.24p11

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.8%p33

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$16Kp69

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+20.2%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 23%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Harrisburg's counties diverge significantly — Perry County (Elevated) contrasts sharply with Dauphin County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High18.5Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Harrisburg, PA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Perry County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Dauphin County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Cumberland County	62	Elevated	44.4%	0	50	100
Perry CountyRisk Driver	62	Elevated	7.6%	100	100	0
Dauphin CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	47.9%	50	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	49	79	55	10	55	69
2025-12	Rec	38	78	15	10	32	69
2025-09	Hyp	39	75	27	10	19	71
2025-08	Rec	39	65	27	10	26	71
2025-06	Ress	42	84	27	10	24	71
2025-04	Ress	42	90	27	10	19	71
2025-03	Rec	36	58	27	9	21	71
2025-02	Ress	35	52	27	9	18	71
2025-01	Hyp	36	48	27	9	30	71
2024-12	Rec	35	47	27	10	22	71
2024-10	Hyp	39	65	27	9	30	71
2024-09	Ress	41	86	27	10	20	71
2024-07	Ress	44	77	27	10	47	71
2024-06	Hyp	41	55	27	9	49	71
2024-04	Hyp	46	56	27	9	77	71
2024-03	Exp	45	68	27	11	58	71
2024-01	Exp	43	67	27	11	47	71
2023-10	Exp	42	53	27	9	58	71
2023-07	Rec	47	77	27	9	62	71
2023-05	Rec	43	78	27	9	40	71
2023-03	Ress	42	70	27	10	42	71
2023-01	Exp	40	60	27	10	35	71
2022-12	Ress	37	53	27	11	25	71
2022-11	Hyp	37	54	27	11	27	71
2022-10	Exp	36	56	27	11	18	71
2022-08	Rec	34	35	27	10	28	71
2022-06	Rec	34	25	27	9	35	71
2022-05	Exp	35	26	27	9	44	71
2022-03	Exp	38	37	27	10	51	71
2022-02	Rec	38	31	27	10	54	71
2021-12	Rec	31	19	27	3	59	44
2021-11	Exp	34	20	27	3	76	44
2021-09	Exp	34	24	27	4	74	44
2021-06	Exp	26	16	27	3	36	44
2021-03	Exp	34	32	27	4	64	44
2020-12	Rec	34	20	27	8	68	49
2020-10	Rec	35	31	27	7	62	49
2020-09	Exp	37	45	27	8	61	49
2020-07	Exp	36	31	27	8	68	49
2020-05	Rec	36	31	27	7	71	49
2020-03	Rec	38	65	27	8	47	49
2019-12	Exp	30	37	27	7	37	41
2019-10	Exp	28	15	27	7	46	41
2019-09	Rec	31	31	27	7	47	41
2019-07	Rec	29	35	27	7	32	41
2019-06	Exp	28	22	27	7	36	41
2019-04	Exp	30	28	27	7	47	41
2019-03	Rec	28	18	27	6	40	41
2019-01	Rec	28	15	27	6	44	41

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023