Rankings/Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA

Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 25420Compare

Risk Rank: #238 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +3

38score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Harrisburg's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 238th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+13% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Harrisburg experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking +14% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

3 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and migration, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump78

12-month HPI change

Migrationp73

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employmentp32

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking +14% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+13.3%p63

Days on Market YoY

+14.0%p74

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.1%p47

Months in status14

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+4.4%p78

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-24.1%p15

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.13p22

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.22p10

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.7%p32

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$20Kp73

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-24.1%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 23%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Harrisburg's counties diverge significantly — Perry County (Elevated) contrasts sharply with Dauphin County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High18.5Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Harrisburg, PA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Perry County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Dauphin County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Cumberland County	62	Elevated	44.4%	0	50	100
Perry CountyRisk Driver	62	Elevated	7.6%	100	100	0
Dauphin CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	47.9%	50	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	41	82	27	10	25	71
2025-09	Hyp	39	75	27	10	19	71
2025-08	Rec	39	65	27	10	26	71
2025-06	Ress	42	84	27	10	24	71
2025-04	Ress	42	90	27	10	19	71
2025-03	Rec	36	58	27	9	21	71
2025-02	Ress	35	52	27	9	18	71
2025-01	Hyp	36	48	27	9	30	71
2024-12	Rec	35	47	27	10	22	71
2024-10	Hyp	39	65	27	9	30	71
2024-09	Ress	41	86	27	10	20	71
2024-07	Ress	44	77	27	10	47	71
2024-06	Hyp	41	55	27	9	49	71
2024-04	Hyp	46	56	27	9	77	71
2024-03	Exp	45	68	27	11	58	71
2024-01	Exp	43	67	27	11	47	71
2023-10	Exp	42	53	27	9	58	71
2023-07	Rec	47	77	27	9	62	71
2023-05	Rec	43	78	27	9	40	71
2023-03	Ress	42	70	27	10	42	71
2023-01	Exp	40	60	27	10	35	71
2022-12	Ress	37	53	27	11	25	71
2022-11	Hyp	37	54	27	11	27	71
2022-10	Exp	36	56	27	11	18	71
2022-08	Rec	34	35	27	10	28	71
2022-06	Rec	34	25	27	9	35	71
2022-05	Exp	35	26	27	9	44	71
2022-03	Exp	38	37	27	10	51	71
2022-02	Rec	38	31	27	10	54	71
2021-12	Rec	31	19	27	3	59	44
2021-11	Exp	34	20	27	3	76	44
2021-09	Exp	34	24	27	4	74	44
2021-06	Exp	26	16	27	3	36	44
2021-03	Exp	34	32	27	4	64	44
2020-12	Rec	34	20	27	8	68	49
2020-10	Rec	35	31	27	7	62	49
2020-09	Exp	37	45	27	8	61	49
2020-07	Exp	36	31	27	8	68	49
2020-05	Rec	36	31	27	7	71	49
2020-03	Rec	38	65	27	8	47	49
2019-12	Exp	30	37	27	7	37	41
2019-10	Exp	28	15	27	7	46	41
2019-09	Rec	31	31	27	7	47	41
2019-07	Rec	29	35	27	7	32	41
2019-06	Exp	28	22	27	7	36	41
2019-04	Exp	30	28	27	7	47	41
2019-03	Rec	28	18	27	6	40	41
2019-01	Rec	28	15	27	6	44	41

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022