Rankings/Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV

Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV

NeutralTier 1CBSA 25180Compare

Risk Rank: #213 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +3

42score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Hagerstown's housing market shows average risk, ranking 213th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Recovery underway but inventory still elevated — watch for follow-through.

Hagerstown experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is elevated (+19% YoY) and days on market are up +9% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Hypersupply

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and permits per capita, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp91

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap64

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp39

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+19% YoY) and days on market are up +9% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+18.5%p68

Days on Market YoY

+9.3%p66

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.8%p91

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+1.0%p18

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-7.7%p39

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

5.44p64

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.23p16

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-1.0%p91

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$136Kp22

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-7.7%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both sides are decelerating. Broad market slowdown — builders and buyers are both pulling back simultaneously.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 20.4%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Hagerstown's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Berkeley County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Morgan County anchors the lower end.

Moderate14.8Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Hagerstown, MD-WV shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Berkeley County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Morgan County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Berkeley CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	42.8%	50	100	50
Washington County	50	Average	51.4%	100	0	100
Morgan CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	5.8%	0	50	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	56	85	50	21	93	23
2025-10	Ress	54	80	50	21	85	23
2025-08	Ress	55	96	50	21	73	23
2025-07	Hyp	58	99	50	21	85	23
2025-06	Rec	57	90	50	18	96	23
2025-05	Hyp	53	76	50	18	85	23
2025-03	Ress	47	40	50	19	83	23
2025-01	Ress	45	31	50	19	82	23
2024-12	Hyp	39	51	50	20	21	23
2024-10	Hyp	40	73	50	20	4	23
2024-08	Exp	32	26	50	15	12	23
2024-06	Exp	42	92	50	19	1	23
2024-05	Rec	44	93	50	19	12	23
2024-03	Rec	46	99	50	21	18	23
2024-02	Exp	48	99	50	21	26	23
2023-12	Exp	53	90	50	21	66	23
2023-09	Rec	52	75	50	19	79	23
2023-07	Rec	51	61	50	19	87	23
2023-04	Hyp	45	29	50	17	82	23
2023-03	Ress	46	26	50	19	93	23
2023-01	Ress	46	21	50	19	97	23
2022-12	Hyp	46	13	50	25	96	23
2022-11	Ress	45	14	50	25	91	23
2022-09	Ress	46	19	50	26	94	23
2022-08	Hyp	46	20	50	26	91	23
2022-07	Ress	46	23	50	26	90	23
2022-05	Ress	48	38	50	28	84	23
2022-04	Hyp	49	38	50	28	86	23
2022-03	Rec	52	59	50	32	79	23
2022-01	Rec	51	60	50	32	73	23
2021-12	Exp	49	55	50	22	77	24
2021-10	Exp	49	55	50	22	75	24
2021-07	Exp	39	57	50	21	15	24
2021-04	Rec	38	34	50	20	31	24
2021-02	Rec	39	52	50	20	22	24
2021-01	Exp	43	59	50	20	38	24
2020-11	Exp	44	32	50	26	60	27
2020-09	Rec	41	20	50	26	58	27
2020-07	Rec	48	34	50	26	84	27
2020-04	Rec	49	55	50	28	69	27
2020-01	Rec	50	53	50	26	78	27
2019-10	Exp	54	61	50	30	89	29
2019-08	Exp	46	14	50	27	86	29
2019-06	Rec	41	10	50	28	61	29
2019-04	Rec	43	6	50	28	76	29
2019-03	Exp	41	1	50	26	72	29
2019-01	Exp	44	1	50	26	91	29

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022