Rankings/Gulfport-Biloxi, MS

Gulfport-Biloxi, MS

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 25060Compare

Risk Rank: #19 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +12

64score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Gulfport experienced a market correction from late 2023 through mid-2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 4 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Gulfport's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 19th of 287 metros. The market has been in Expansion for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Elevated, driven primarily by permits per capita and permit growth. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p85 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growth

p72 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Price Momentum

p68 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+3.6%p52

Days on Market YoY

+2.4%p53

Months in status10

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.3%p89

Months in status23

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum68

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth72

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita85

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability65

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment54

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration38

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.5%	p68
Permit Growth	+11.3%	p72
Permits/1K Pop	8.01	p85
Affordability	0.29	p65
Employment	+0.2%	p54
Net AGI Migration	+$45K	p38

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+11.2%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY+3.6%

Days on Market YoY+2.4%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 10 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Gulfport's counties diverge significantly — Harrison County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Jackson County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High25.6Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Gulfport, MS shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Harrison County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Jackson County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Harrison CountyRisk Driver	89	High Risk	25.0%	67	100	100
Stone County	56	Elevated	25.0%	100	67	0
Hancock County	33	Below Average	25.0%	33	0	67
Jackson CountyStabilizer	22	Low Risk	25.0%	0	33	33

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	59	69	39	64	71	37
2025-09	Exp	59	67	39	64	69	37
2025-08	Rec	56	70	39	64	48	37
2025-06	Rec	40	6	39	53	30	37
2025-05	Exp	44	14	39	53	46	37
2025-03	Exp	61	77	39	62	75	37
2025-02	Hyp	54	68	39	62	41	37
2024-12	Hyp	52	40	39	61	56	37
2024-09	Hyp	49	35	39	62	43	37
2024-06	Hyp	51	27	39	58	68	37
2024-05	Ress	47	16	39	58	57	37
2024-03	Ress	46	24	39	60	38	37
2023-12	Ress	59	75	39	69	59	37
2023-11	Hyp	54	66	39	69	40	37
2023-09	Hyp	44	19	39	62	33	37
2023-08	Rec	43	24	39	62	22	37
2023-07	Hyp	44	25	39	62	27	37
2023-05	Hyp	58	82	39	71	43	37
2023-02	Ress	58	45	39	64	88	37
2022-12	Ress	63	67	39	65	93	37
2022-09	Hyp	60	54	39	64	91	37
2022-07	Ress	60	53	39	64	94	37
2022-05	Ress	56	40	39	60	82	37
2022-04	Exp	55	50	39	60	67	37
2022-02	Exp	51	47	39	62	45	37
2022-01	Rec	50	43	39	62	46	37
2021-11	Rec	52	37	39	56	57	46
2021-10	Exp	48	31	39	56	44	46
2021-08	Exp	52	36	39	57	62	46
2021-05	Exp	39	12	39	52	9	46
2021-04	Rec	40	13	39	52	16	46
2021-02	Rec	46	34	39	56	24	46
2020-12	Exp	52	76	39	69	11	39
2020-10	Exp	50	66	39	69	13	39
2020-09	Rec	50	66	39	66	16	39
2020-07	Rec	54	76	39	66	27	39
2020-05	Exp	59	62	39	65	73	39
2020-03	Exp	41	19	39	66	10	39
2020-02	Rec	43	15	39	66	22	39
2019-12	Rec	48	26	39	66	40	43
2019-09	Exp	56	56	39	66	58	43
2019-07	Exp	60	77	39	66	56	43
2019-06	Rec	60	83	39	67	50	43
2019-04	Rec	60	49	39	67	89	43
2019-03	Exp	65	78	39	68	84	43
2019-01	Exp	62	70	39	68	79	43

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022