Rankings/Greenville-Anderson-Greer, SC

Greenville-Anderson-Greer, SC

NeutralTier 1CBSA 24860Compare

Risk Rank: #76 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +2

56score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Greenville experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recession for 3 months·Previously: Recession

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Greenville's housing market shows average risk, ranking 76th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permits per capita and affordability. The market is in Recession phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p90 (highest risk decile)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordability

p73 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentum

p55 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +36% YoY with days on market up +2% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress—

Active Listings YoY

+36.5%p84

Days on Market YoY

+1.5%p50

Months in status11

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.4%p43

Months in status14

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum55

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth49

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita90

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability73

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment54

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration12

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.8%	p55
Permit Growth	-2.3%	p49
Permits/1K Pop	8.99	p90
Affordability	0.30	p73
Employment	+0.2%	p54
Net AGI Migration	+$348K	p12

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-2.3%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Liquidity

Stress—

Active Listings YoY+36.5%

Days on Market YoY+1.5%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 11 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Greenville's 4 counties show moderate divergence — Laurens County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Anderson County anchors the lower end.

Moderate12.5Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Greenville, SC shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Laurens County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Anderson County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Laurens CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	25.0%	100	100	0
Greenville County	55	Average	25.0%	33	33	100
Pickens County	45	Below Average	25.0%	0	67	67
Anderson CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	25.0%	67	0	33

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Ress	54	56	69	73	26	12
2025-09	Hyp	59	64	69	73	46	12
2025-07	Hyp	54	79	69	73	4	12
2025-06	Ress	53	71	69	71	7	12
2025-04	Ress	54	52	69	71	29	12
2025-01	Rec	56	54	69	70	46	12
2024-12	Hyp	54	56	69	71	25	12
2024-10	Hyp	55	56	69	71	34	12
2024-09	Ress	49	38	69	67	21	12
2024-07	Ress	55	59	69	67	33	12
2024-04	Hyp	56	84	69	72	13	12
2024-03	Exp	60	89	69	71	32	12
2024-01	Exp	60	79	69	71	43	12
2023-12	Rec	57	79	69	74	22	12
2023-10	Rec	59	78	69	74	33	12
2023-07	Rec	57	64	69	71	38	12
2023-06	Hyp	59	62	69	70	51	12
2023-04	Ress	58	72	69	70	36	12
2023-02	Ress	58	84	69	70	27	12
2023-01	Hyp	56	82	69	70	18	12
2022-12	Ress	58	82	69	72	25	12
2022-10	Ress	57	84	69	72	17	12
2022-07	Ress	57	85	69	71	17	12
2022-06	Hyp	54	81	69	67	9	12
2022-05	Exp	55	79	69	67	13	12
2022-03	Exp	58	77	69	67	36	12
2022-02	Rec	58	76	69	67	36	12
2021-12	Rec	60	63	70	59	61	17
2021-10	Exp	55	58	70	59	38	17
2021-08	Exp	54	48	70	57	43	17
2021-05	Rec	50	37	70	56	32	17
2021-03	Rec	47	27	70	57	24	17
2021-01	Exp	48	30	70	57	26	17
2020-11	Exp	50	36	70	59	31	18
2020-10	Rec	51	37	70	59	33	18
2020-08	Rec	53	37	70	59	44	18
2020-05	Rec	61	66	70	61	62	18
2020-04	Exp	62	69	70	61	63	18
2020-02	Exp	65	77	70	60	79	18
2019-12	Rec	64	84	70	59	63	19
2019-10	Rec	66	91	70	59	70	19
2019-09	Exp	62	93	70	58	46	19
2019-07	Exp	60	82	70	58	43	19
2019-06	Rec	60	80	70	57	43	19
2019-04	Rec	60	82	70	57	46	19
2019-03	Exp	57	70	70	56	40	19
2019-01	Exp	54	51	70	56	38	19

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022