Rankings/Greenville, NC

Greenville, NC

NeutralTier 1CBSA 24780Compare

Risk Rank: #158 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -18

48score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Greenville's housing market shows average risk, ranking 158th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Significant oversupply — conditions increasingly favor buyers over sellers.

Greenville experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory has surged +15% YoY with days on market up +25% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and migration, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap78

Permits per 1,000 residents

Migrationp73

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp57

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +15% YoY with days on market up +25% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+15.2%p65

Days on Market YoY

+25.4%p86

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.1%p88

Months in status10

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+1.0%p18

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-3.0%p48

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

7.12p78

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.28p57

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.3%p13

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$23Kp73

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-3.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 31.1%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	50	49	37	61	4	69
2025-10	Rec	52	62	37	61	8	69
2025-09	Hyp	53	57	37	61	15	69
2025-07	Ress	51	47	37	61	16	69
2025-05	Ress	49	3	37	51	54	69
2025-04	Hyp	52	4	37	51	75	69
2025-02	Hyp	71	88	37	63	90	69
2024-11	Hyp	68	72	37	59	92	69
2024-08	Hyp	57	26	37	62	68	69
2024-07	Ress	50	11	37	62	42	69
2024-05	Ress	56	78	37	63	10	69
2024-02	Hyp	52	60	37	55	14	69
2024-01	Exp	54	55	37	55	29	69
2023-11	Exp	46	26	37	32	34	69
2023-10	Rec	45	19	37	32	33	69
2023-08	Rec	58	94	37	45	26	69
2023-07	Hyp	60	96	37	45	36	69
2023-05	Hyp	52	31	37	29	65	69
2023-03	Ress	50	43	37	32	43	69
2023-01	Ress	50	58	37	32	26	69
2022-10	Ress	61	95	37	42	42	69
2022-08	Exp	61	69	37	32	79	69
2022-06	Exp	60	68	37	35	73	69
2022-03	Rec	60	65	37	31	78	69
2022-01	Rec	54	60	37	31	49	69
2021-11	Exp	62	39	36	62	75	82
2021-09	Exp	69	65	36	69	82	82
2021-06	Exp	56	45	36	65	32	82
2021-03	Rec	60	61	36	65	41	82
2021-01	Rec	64	53	36	65	68	82
2020-10	Rec	52	57	36	19	45	77
2020-07	Rec	46	30	36	17	36	77
2020-05	Exp	47	38	36	17	37	77
2020-03	Exp	58	49	36	17	89	77
2019-12	Exp	54	38	36	17	85	71
2019-09	Exp	51	66	36	17	40	71
2019-06	Rec	50	14	36	16	88	71
2019-04	Rec	52	32	36	16	80	71
2019-01	Rec	48	34	36	17	55	71

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023