Rankings/Greensboro-High Point, NC

Greensboro-High Point, NC

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 24660Compare

Risk Rank: #25 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +9

64score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Greensboro's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 25th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Deep correction with severe liquidity stress — significant risk remains.

Greensboro experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025.

Inventory has surged +22% YoY with days on market up +14% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permit growth, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp82

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp80

YoY permit change

Price Momentump77

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +22% YoY with days on market up +14% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+22.0%p72

Days on Market YoY

+13.7%p74

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.0%p49

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+3.5%p77

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+22.1%p80

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

5.80p67

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.29p47

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.9%p28

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$42Kp82

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+22.1%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Above-normal supply meeting deteriorating demand. Correction risk is rising — new units are entering a market where existing inventory is already building.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorManufacturing 13.5%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Greensboro's counties diverge significantly — Guilford County (Elevated) contrasts sharply with Randolph County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High24.1Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Greensboro, NC shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Guilford County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Randolph County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Guilford CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	69.7%	50	50	100
Rockingham County	62	Elevated	11.7%	100	100	0
Randolph CountyStabilizer	12	Low Risk	18.6%	0	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Hyp	49	32	49	42	29	82
2026-05	Rec	51	36	61	42	25	82
2025-12	Hyp	48	42	17	46	40	82
2025-10	Hyp	53	46	86	42	24	52
2025-07	Hyp	56	42	86	42	42	52
2025-06	Ress	58	44	86	42	51	52
2025-04	Ress	62	56	86	42	69	52
2025-02	Hyp	68	69	86	47	83	52
2024-12	Hyp	66	61	86	45	82	52
2024-09	Hyp	66	80	86	47	60	52
2024-07	Ress	64	68	86	47	60	52
2024-05	Ress	61	66	86	42	48	52
2024-02	Hyp	64	79	86	45	52	52
2023-12	Exp	65	51	86	42	87	52
2023-10	Exp	66	60	86	42	88	52
2023-08	Rec	68	75	86	41	86	52
2023-06	Rec	69	69	86	39	96	52
2023-05	Hyp	70	74	86	39	96	52
2023-03	Hyp	72	88	86	41	92	52
2023-02	Ress	71	87	86	41	92	52
2022-12	Ress	69	80	86	39	89	52
2022-10	Hyp	68	82	86	39	81	52
2022-09	Rec	69	84	86	38	82	52
2022-07	Hyp	70	82	86	38	94	52
2022-05	Exp	67	74	86	36	83	52
2022-03	Exp	66	69	86	35	87	52
2022-02	Rec	67	69	86	35	91	52
2021-12	Rec	67	59	86	25	89	72
2021-11	Exp	66	60	86	25	86	72
2021-09	Exp	62	54	86	24	68	72
2021-06	Exp	60	50	86	24	57	72
2021-04	Rec	58	43	86	24	52	72
2021-02	Rec	58	56	86	24	39	72
2021-01	Exp	59	60	86	24	43	72
2020-11	Exp	60	53	86	30	37	82
2020-10	Rec	60	51	86	30	40	82
2020-08	Rec	65	62	86	31	59	82
2020-05	Exp	66	70	86	32	57	82
2020-03	Exp	66	55	86	31	71	82
2020-02	Rec	68	66	86	31	71	82
2019-12	Rec	65	70	86	30	52	85
2019-10	Exp	64	51	86	30	66	85
2019-08	Exp	65	56	86	31	61	85
2019-05	Exp	64	69	86	32	44	85
2019-02	Exp	60	39	86	28	53	85
2019-01	Exp	61	40	86	28	57	85

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023