Rankings/Greensboro-High Point, NC

Greensboro-High Point, NC

NeutralTier 1CBSA 24660Compare

Risk Rank: #158 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -18

48score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Greensboro's housing market shows average risk, ranking 158th of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 6 months. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Significant oversupply — conditions increasingly favor buyers over sellers.

Greensboro experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory has surged +26% YoY with days on market up +17% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

6 months in current phase·from Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permits per capita, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp82

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap59

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp46

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +26% YoY with days on market up +17% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+25.9%p76

Days on Market YoY

+16.9%p77

Months in status22

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.1%p64

Months in status22

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+2.5%p42

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-22.1%p17

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.91p59

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.27p46

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.5%p40

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$42Kp82

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-22.1%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are already retreating and demand is weak. A correction may be underway — the market is contracting on both the supply and demand side.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorManufacturing 13.5%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Greensboro's counties diverge significantly — Randolph County (Elevated) contrasts sharply with Rockingham County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High24.1Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Greensboro, NC shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Randolph County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Rockingham County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Guilford County	75	Elevated	69.7%	50	50	100
Randolph CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	18.6%	100	100	50
Rockingham CountyStabilizer	0	Low Risk	11.7%	0	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	53	43	86	42	27	52
2025-09	Hyp	54	44	86	42	29	52
2025-06	Ress	58	44	86	42	51	52
2025-04	Ress	62	56	86	42	69	52
2025-02	Hyp	68	69	86	47	83	52
2024-12	Hyp	66	61	86	45	82	52
2024-09	Hyp	66	80	86	47	60	52
2024-07	Ress	64	68	86	47	60	52
2024-05	Ress	61	66	86	42	48	52
2024-02	Hyp	64	79	86	45	52	52
2023-12	Exp	65	51	86	42	87	52
2023-10	Exp	66	60	86	42	88	52
2023-08	Rec	68	75	86	41	86	52
2023-06	Rec	69	69	86	39	96	52
2023-05	Hyp	70	74	86	39	96	52
2023-03	Hyp	72	88	86	41	92	52
2023-02	Ress	71	87	86	41	92	52
2022-12	Ress	69	80	86	39	89	52
2022-10	Hyp	68	82	86	39	81	52
2022-09	Rec	69	84	86	38	82	52
2022-07	Hyp	70	82	86	38	94	52
2022-05	Exp	67	74	86	36	83	52
2022-03	Exp	66	69	86	35	87	52
2022-02	Rec	67	69	86	35	91	52
2021-12	Rec	67	59	86	25	89	72
2021-11	Exp	66	60	86	25	86	72
2021-09	Exp	62	54	86	24	68	72
2021-06	Exp	60	50	86	24	57	72
2021-04	Rec	58	43	86	24	52	72
2021-02	Rec	58	56	86	24	39	72
2021-01	Exp	59	60	86	24	43	72
2020-11	Exp	60	53	86	30	37	82
2020-10	Rec	60	51	86	30	40	82
2020-08	Rec	65	62	86	31	59	82
2020-05	Exp	66	70	86	32	57	82
2020-03	Exp	66	55	86	31	71	82
2020-02	Rec	68	66	86	31	71	82
2019-12	Rec	65	70	86	30	52	85
2019-10	Exp	64	51	86	30	66	85
2019-08	Exp	65	56	86	31	61	85
2019-05	Exp	64	69	86	32	44	85
2019-02	Exp	60	39	86	28	53	85
2019-01	Exp	61	40	86	28	57	85

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023