Rankings/Greensboro-High Point, NC

Greensboro-High Point, NC

NeutralTier 1CBSA 24660Compare

Risk Rank: #234 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -25

41score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Greensboro experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 6 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Greensboro's housing market shows average risk, ranking 234th of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 6 months. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permits per capita and migration. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p59 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Migration

p53 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordability

p44 (below average risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +26% YoY with days on market up +17% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+25.9%p76

Days on Market YoY

+16.9%p77

Months in status22

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.8%p76

Months in status22

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum36

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth16

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita59

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability44

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment39

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration53

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.7%	p36
Permit Growth	-22.1%	p16
Permits/1K Pop	4.91	p59
Affordability	0.27	p44
Employment	+0.5%	p39
Net AGI Migration	+$8K	p53

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-22.1%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are already retreating and demand is weak. A correction may be underway — the market is contracting on both the supply and demand side.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY+25.9%

Days on Market YoY+16.9%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 22 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Greensboro's counties diverge significantly — Randolph County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Rockingham County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High36.0Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Greensboro, NC shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Randolph County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Rockingham County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Randolph CountyRisk Driver	83	High Risk	33.3%	100	100	50
Guilford County	67	Elevated	33.3%	50	50	100
Rockingham CountyStabilizer	0	Low Risk	33.3%	0	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	53	43	86	42	27	52
2025-09	Hyp	54	44	86	42	29	52
2025-06	Ress	58	44	86	42	51	52
2025-04	Ress	62	56	86	42	69	52
2025-02	Hyp	68	69	86	47	83	52
2024-12	Hyp	66	61	86	45	82	52
2024-09	Hyp	66	80	86	47	60	52
2024-07	Ress	64	68	86	47	60	52
2024-05	Ress	61	66	86	42	48	52
2024-02	Hyp	64	79	86	45	52	52
2023-12	Exp	65	51	86	42	87	52
2023-10	Exp	66	60	86	42	88	52
2023-08	Rec	68	75	86	41	86	52
2023-06	Rec	69	69	86	39	96	52
2023-05	Hyp	70	74	86	39	96	52
2023-03	Hyp	72	88	86	41	92	52
2023-02	Ress	71	87	86	41	92	52
2022-12	Ress	69	80	86	39	89	52
2022-10	Hyp	68	82	86	39	81	52
2022-09	Rec	69	84	86	38	82	52
2022-07	Hyp	70	82	86	38	94	52
2022-05	Exp	67	74	86	36	83	52
2022-03	Exp	66	69	86	35	87	52
2022-02	Rec	67	69	86	35	91	52
2021-12	Rec	67	59	86	25	89	72
2021-11	Exp	66	60	86	25	86	72
2021-09	Exp	62	54	86	24	68	72
2021-06	Exp	60	50	86	24	57	72
2021-04	Rec	58	43	86	24	52	72
2021-02	Rec	58	56	86	24	39	72
2021-01	Exp	59	60	86	24	43	72
2020-11	Exp	60	53	86	30	37	82
2020-10	Rec	60	51	86	30	40	82
2020-08	Rec	65	62	86	31	59	82
2020-05	Exp	66	70	86	32	57	82
2020-03	Exp	66	55	86	31	71	82
2020-02	Rec	68	66	86	31	71	82
2019-12	Rec	65	70	86	30	52	85
2019-10	Exp	64	51	86	30	66	85
2019-08	Exp	65	56	86	31	61	85
2019-05	Exp	64	69	86	32	44	85
2019-02	Exp	60	39	86	28	53	85
2019-01	Exp	61	40	86	28	57	85

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022