Rankings/Green Bay, WI

Green Bay, WI

NeutralTier 1CBSA 24580Compare

Risk Rank: #183 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↓ -12

46score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Green Bay's housing market shows average risk, ranking 183rd of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Deep correction with severe liquidity stress — significant risk remains.

Green Bay experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025.

Inventory has surged +99% YoY with days on market up -20% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and permits per capita, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump79

12-month HPI change

Permits per Capitap64

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp49

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +99% YoY with days on market up -20% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+98.6%p98

Days on Market YoY

-20.4%p16

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.3%p68

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+2.7%p79

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-2.3%p49

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

5.43p64

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.26p27

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.8%p21

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$45Kp34

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-2.3%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorManufacturing 34.5%

7 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Green Bay's counties diverge significantly — Brown County (Elevated) contrasts sharply with Oconto County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High20.4Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Green Bay, WI shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Brown County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Oconto County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Brown CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	81.8%	50	50	100
Kewaunee County	62	Elevated	6.2%	100	100	0
Oconto CountyStabilizer	12	Low Risk	12.0%	0	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Ress	35	66	18	26	13	34
2025-10	Rec	62	97	95	27	29	61
2025-08	Rec	58	92	95	27	11	61
2025-07	Exp	60	91	95	27	24	61
2025-05	Exp	58	85	95	22	20	61
2025-04	Hyp	58	88	95	22	17	61
2025-03	Exp	59	88	95	23	21	61
2025-02	Rec	57	80	95	23	20	61
2024-12	Rec	55	42	95	21	46	61
2024-09	Rec	58	78	95	21	26	61
2024-08	Ress	64	80	95	21	61	61
2024-06	Ress	60	63	95	19	60	61
2024-04	Hyp	67	69	95	19	93	61
2024-03	Exp	71	95	95	22	87	61
2024-01	Exp	72	96	95	22	94	61
2023-10	Exp	68	79	95	19	90	61
2023-07	Rec	69	98	95	19	79	61
2023-05	Rec	64	96	95	17	50	61
2023-03	Hyp	62	85	95	16	48	61
2023-02	Ress	62	86	95	16	48	61
2022-12	Ress	62	95	95	22	35	61
2022-10	Hyp	61	87	95	22	36	61
2022-09	Rec	62	68	95	19	64	61
2022-08	Ress	65	66	95	19	84	61
2022-06	Ress	63	46	95	18	92	61
2022-05	Hyp	62	45	95	18	88	61
2022-04	Exp	62	43	95	18	93	61
2022-02	Exp	58	32	95	17	82	61
2022-01	Rec	60	35	95	17	91	61
2021-11	Rec	56	34	95	14	86	43
2021-10	Exp	56	32	95	14	89	43
2021-08	Exp	57	38	95	14	89	43
2021-05	Exp	53	43	95	13	59	43
2021-04	Rec	52	43	95	13	53	43
2021-02	Rec	49	28	95	13	51	43
2021-01	Exp	49	27	95	13	50	43
2020-11	Exp	50	30	95	10	53	50
2020-10	Rec	52	30	95	10	61	50
2020-08	Rec	47	20	95	10	42	50
2020-05	Rec	50	20	95	11	60	50
2020-04	Exp	50	23	95	11	56	50
2020-02	Exp	55	29	95	11	81	50
2019-12	Rec	62	35	95	11	90	80
2019-10	Rec	63	40	95	11	87	80
2019-07	Exp	64	42	95	11	90	80
2019-05	Exp	64	44	95	11	87	80
2019-02	Exp	68	68	95	11	87	80
2019-01	Exp	66	68	95	11	76	80

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023