Rankings/Green Bay, WI

Green Bay, WI

NeutralTier 1CBSA 24580Compare

Risk Rank: #203 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -11

44score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Green Bay experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recession for 2 months·Previously: Recession

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Green Bay's housing market shows average risk, ranking 203rd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and migration. The market is in Recession phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p90 (highest risk decile)

12-month HPI change

Migration

p61 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permits per Capita

p54 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +67% YoY with days on market up -14% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+67.2%p95

Days on Market YoY

-14.1%p24

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.8%p76

Months in status22

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum90

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth17

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita54

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability28

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment12

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration61

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+5.4%	p90
Permit Growth	-21.1%	p17
Permits/1K Pop	4.27	p54
Affordability	0.25	p28
Employment	+1.3%	p12
Net AGI Migration	-$3K	p61

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-21.1%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both supply and demand are in contraction. The market is in full retreat — builders have stopped and buyers have pulled back.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY+67.2%

Days on Market YoY-14.1%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Green Bay's counties diverge significantly — Brown County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Kewaunee County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High36.0Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Green Bay, WI shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Brown County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Kewaunee County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Brown CountyRisk Driver	83	High Risk	33.3%	50	100	100
Oconto County	67	Elevated	33.3%	100	50	50
Kewaunee CountyStabilizer	0	Low Risk	33.3%	0	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Ress	61	94	95	27	24	61
2025-10	Rec	62	97	95	27	29	61
2025-08	Rec	58	92	95	27	11	61
2025-07	Exp	60	91	95	27	24	61
2025-05	Exp	58	85	95	22	20	61
2025-04	Hyp	58	88	95	22	17	61
2025-03	Exp	59	88	95	23	21	61
2025-02	Rec	57	80	95	23	20	61
2024-12	Rec	55	42	95	21	46	61
2024-09	Rec	58	78	95	21	26	61
2024-08	Ress	64	80	95	21	61	61
2024-06	Ress	60	63	95	19	60	61
2024-04	Hyp	67	69	95	19	93	61
2024-03	Exp	71	95	95	22	87	61
2024-01	Exp	72	96	95	22	94	61
2023-10	Exp	68	79	95	19	90	61
2023-07	Rec	69	98	95	19	79	61
2023-05	Rec	64	96	95	17	50	61
2023-03	Hyp	62	85	95	16	48	61
2023-02	Ress	62	86	95	16	48	61
2022-12	Ress	62	95	95	22	35	61
2022-10	Hyp	61	87	95	22	36	61
2022-09	Rec	62	68	95	19	64	61
2022-08	Ress	65	66	95	19	84	61
2022-06	Ress	63	46	95	18	92	61
2022-05	Hyp	62	45	95	18	88	61
2022-04	Exp	62	43	95	18	93	61
2022-02	Exp	58	32	95	17	82	61
2022-01	Rec	60	35	95	17	91	61
2021-11	Rec	56	34	95	14	86	43
2021-10	Exp	56	32	95	14	89	43
2021-08	Exp	57	38	95	14	89	43
2021-05	Exp	53	43	95	13	59	43
2021-04	Rec	52	43	95	13	53	43
2021-02	Rec	49	28	95	13	51	43
2021-01	Exp	49	27	95	13	50	43
2020-11	Exp	50	30	95	10	53	50
2020-10	Rec	52	30	95	10	61	50
2020-08	Rec	47	20	95	10	42	50
2020-05	Rec	50	20	95	11	60	50
2020-04	Exp	50	23	95	11	56	50
2020-02	Exp	55	29	95	11	81	50
2019-12	Rec	62	35	95	11	90	80
2019-10	Rec	63	40	95	11	87	80
2019-07	Exp	64	42	95	11	90	80
2019-05	Exp	64	44	95	11	87	80
2019-02	Exp	68	68	95	11	87	80
2019-01	Exp	66	68	95	11	76	80

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022