Rankings/Greeley, CO

Greeley, CO

NeutralTier 1CBSA 24540Compare

Risk Rank: #158 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +11

48score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Greeley experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Greeley's housing market shows average risk, ranking 158th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permits per capita and employment. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p90 (highest risk decile)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Employment

p90 (highest risk decile)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p58 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +20% YoY with days on market up +11% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress—

Active Listings YoY

+20.0%p70

Days on Market YoY

+11.1%p69

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.4%p71

Months in status39

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum13

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth58

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita90

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability26

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment90

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration12

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	-0.1%	p13
Permit Growth	+2.3%	p58
Permits/1K Pop	9.15	p90
Affordability	0.25	p26
Employment	-0.8%	p90
Net AGI Migration	+$339K	p12

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+2.3%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Liquidity

Stress—

Active Listings YoY+20.0%

Days on Market YoY+11.1%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	46	19	38	25	92	13
2025-09	Hyp	47	19	38	25	97	13
2025-07	Hyp	44	9	38	25	86	13
2025-05	Ress	39	13	38	24	55	13
2025-03	Ress	50	72	38	32	54	13
2024-12	Rec	37	28	38	30	21	13
2024-11	Ress	34	27	38	30	9	13
2024-09	Hyp	36	41	38	31	3	13
2024-08	Rec	35	31	38	31	9	13
2024-07	Hyp	33	24	38	31	2	13
2024-05	Rec	30	7	38	27	5	13
2024-04	Ress	32	10	38	27	12	13
2024-02	Ress	30	7	38	31	2	13
2024-01	Exp	31	7	38	31	6	13
2023-11	Exp	34	8	38	46	11	13
2023-09	Rec	36	23	38	50	4	13
2023-07	Rec	35	17	38	50	1	13
2023-06	Hyp	34	11	38	49	6	13
2023-04	Hyp	35	15	38	49	5	13
2023-03	Ress	40	30	38	55	15	13
2023-01	Ress	44	32	38	55	33	13
2022-12	Rec	37	24	38	46	10	13
2022-11	Ress	38	22	38	46	17	13
2022-10	Hyp	40	20	38	46	29	13
2022-09	Ress	44	42	38	50	28	13
2022-07	Ress	44	50	38	50	24	13
2022-05	Hyp	44	48	38	48	28	13
2022-04	Exp	47	48	38	48	42	13
2022-03	Rec	45	48	38	48	32	13
2022-01	Rec	46	54	38	48	35	13
2021-12	Ress	48	61	38	50	35	14
2021-11	Exp	51	61	38	50	54	14
2021-09	Exp	54	56	38	49	75	14
2021-06	Rec	56	49	38	49	96	14
2021-04	Rec	55	38	38	49	99	14
2021-02	Exp	50	21	38	46	92	14
2020-12	Exp	52	20	38	53	94	15
2020-11	Rec	52	21	38	53	95	15
2020-09	Rec	52	24	38	53	94	15
2020-06	Exp	51	40	38	53	69	15
2020-04	Exp	41	33	38	53	19	15
2020-03	Rec	44	24	38	54	40	15
2020-01	Rec	41	24	38	54	23	15
2019-10	Rec	36	16	38	54	4	12
2019-09	Hyp	37	25	38	54	2	12
2019-07	Hyp	42	57	38	54	1	12
2019-06	Ress	46	76	38	55	1	12
2019-04	Ress	48	84	38	55	8	12
2019-02	Hyp	48	86	38	56	3	12
2019-01	Hyp	48	83	38	56	5	12

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022