Rankings/Greeley, CO

Greeley, CO

NeutralTier 1CBSA 24540Compare

Risk Rank: #165 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):— +4

47score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Greeley's housing market shows average risk, ranking 165th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Greeley experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +7% pace with homes taking +2% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and employment, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap91

Permits per 1,000 residents

Employmentp80

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp69

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +7% pace with homes taking +2% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+6.9%p56

Days on Market YoY

+1.9%p51

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.4%p69

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

-0.2%p9

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+13.1%p69

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

9.94p91

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.26p22

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.5%p80

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$291Kp10

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+13.1%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorGovernment 15.5%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	39	14	74	23	19	10
2025-12	Hyp	47	13	57	25	90	10
2025-11	Rec	46	19	38	25	92	13
2025-09	Hyp	47	19	38	25	97	13
2025-07	Hyp	44	9	38	25	86	13
2025-05	Ress	39	13	38	24	55	13
2025-03	Ress	50	72	38	32	54	13
2024-12	Rec	37	28	38	30	21	13
2024-11	Ress	34	27	38	30	9	13
2024-09	Hyp	36	41	38	31	3	13
2024-08	Rec	35	31	38	31	9	13
2024-07	Hyp	33	24	38	31	2	13
2024-05	Rec	30	7	38	27	5	13
2024-04	Ress	32	10	38	27	12	13
2024-02	Ress	30	7	38	31	2	13
2024-01	Exp	31	7	38	31	6	13
2023-11	Exp	34	8	38	46	11	13
2023-09	Rec	36	23	38	50	4	13
2023-07	Rec	35	17	38	50	1	13
2023-06	Hyp	34	11	38	49	6	13
2023-04	Hyp	35	15	38	49	5	13
2023-03	Ress	40	30	38	55	15	13
2023-01	Ress	44	32	38	55	33	13
2022-12	Rec	37	24	38	46	10	13
2022-11	Ress	38	22	38	46	17	13
2022-10	Hyp	40	20	38	46	29	13
2022-09	Ress	44	42	38	50	28	13
2022-07	Ress	44	50	38	50	24	13
2022-05	Hyp	44	48	38	48	28	13
2022-04	Exp	47	48	38	48	42	13
2022-03	Rec	45	48	38	48	32	13
2022-01	Rec	46	54	38	48	35	13
2021-12	Ress	48	61	38	50	35	14
2021-11	Exp	51	61	38	50	54	14
2021-09	Exp	54	56	38	49	75	14
2021-06	Rec	56	49	38	49	96	14
2021-04	Rec	55	38	38	49	99	14
2021-02	Exp	50	21	38	46	92	14
2020-12	Exp	52	20	38	53	94	15
2020-11	Rec	52	21	38	53	95	15
2020-09	Rec	52	24	38	53	94	15
2020-06	Exp	51	40	38	53	69	15
2020-04	Exp	41	33	38	53	19	15
2020-03	Rec	44	24	38	54	40	15
2020-01	Rec	41	24	38	54	23	15
2019-10	Rec	36	16	38	54	4	12
2019-09	Hyp	37	25	38	54	2	12
2019-07	Hyp	42	57	38	54	1	12
2019-06	Ress	46	76	38	55	1	12
2019-04	Ress	48	84	38	55	8	12
2019-02	Hyp	48	86	38	56	3	12
2019-01	Hyp	48	83	38	56	5	12

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023