Rankings/Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI

Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI

NeutralTier 1CBSA 24340Compare

Risk Rank: #150 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -3

49score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Grand Rapids experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 2 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Grand Rapids's housing market shows average risk, ranking 150th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permit growth and price momentum. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permit Growth

p69 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Price Momentum

p62 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Permits per Capita

p47 (below average risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+3.3%p52

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p46

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.9%p77

Months in status23

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum62

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth69

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita47

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability47

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment39

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration28

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.3%	p62
Permit Growth	+8.1%	p69
Permits/1K Pop	3.64	p47
Affordability	0.27	p47
Employment	+0.5%	p39
Net AGI Migration	+$85K	p28

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+8.1%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY+3.3%

Days on Market YoY+0.0%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 6 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Grand Rapids's counties diverge significantly — Ottawa County (Elevated) contrasts sharply with Ionia County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High18.9

5 of 5 counties scored

Grand Rapids, MI shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Ottawa County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by affordability), while Ionia County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Montcalm County	67	Elevated	20.0%	100	100	0
Ottawa CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	20.0%	75	25	100
Barry County	58	Elevated	20.0%	50	75	50
Kent County	42	Below Average	20.0%	0	50	75
Ionia CountyStabilizer	17	Low Risk	20.0%	25	0	25

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	46	72	58	46	34	28
2025-10	Rec	47	76	58	46	35	28
2025-08	Rec	51	67	58	46	65	28
2025-06	Ress	55	77	58	49	78	28
2025-04	Rec	55	66	58	49	89	28
2025-02	Ress	52	60	58	44	78	28
2024-12	Ress	52	53	58	41	89	28
2024-11	Hyp	52	59	58	41	83	28
2024-09	Ress	55	79	58	45	81	28
2024-07	Ress	56	77	58	45	90	28
2024-06	Hyp	55	82	58	47	74	28
2024-04	Hyp	54	67	58	47	80	28
2024-03	Exp	51	67	58	42	72	28
2024-02	Rec	53	80	58	42	69	28
2023-12	Rec	51	79	58	42	56	28
2023-11	Exp	48	76	58	42	46	28
2023-09	Exp	44	78	58	40	19	28
2023-07	Rec	44	71	58	40	26	28
2023-05	Rec	44	77	58	42	20	28
2023-04	Hyp	44	71	58	42	26	28
2023-02	Ress	38	40	58	37	25	28
2022-12	Ress	39	48	58	27	33	28
2022-10	Rec	43	50	58	27	51	28
2022-08	Ress	42	51	58	27	47	28
2022-06	Hyp	40	57	58	29	25	28
2022-04	Exp	39	52	58	29	26	28
2022-02	Exp	41	47	58	26	43	28
2022-01	Rec	40	55	58	26	30	28
2021-11	Rec	44	53	58	29	36	48
2021-10	Exp	46	51	58	29	48	48
2021-08	Exp	46	62	58	29	35	48
2021-05	Rec	44	80	58	30	5	48
2021-03	Rec	53	68	58	26	76	48
2021-01	Exp	53	65	58	26	78	48
2020-11	Exp	52	73	58	31	75	34
2020-10	Rec	52	74	58	31	71	34
2020-08	Rec	52	74	58	31	73	34
2020-07	Exp	52	71	58	31	80	34
2020-05	Exp	52	55	58	29	94	34
2020-04	Rec	52	57	58	29	95	34
2020-02	Rec	48	61	58	30	61	34
2019-12	Exp	50	61	58	29	63	46
2019-10	Exp	53	68	58	29	75	46
2019-09	Rec	55	83	58	30	74	46
2019-07	Rec	56	85	58	30	74	46
2019-04	Ress	53	80	58	29	65	46
2019-02	Ress	54	86	58	29	61	46
2019-01	Hyp	53	87	58	29	56	46

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022