Rankings/Grand Junction, CO

Grand Junction, CO

NeutralTier 1CBSA 24300Compare

Risk Rank: #177 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -7

46score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Grand Junction experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 6 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Grand Junction's housing market shows average risk, ranking 177th of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 6 months. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by affordability and employment. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p92 (highest risk decile)

Mortgage payment / income

Employment

p77 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capita

p58 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +17% YoY with days on market up +22% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+17.4%p67

Days on Market YoY

+21.7%p82

Months in status9

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+5.2%p98

Months in status46

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum4

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth13

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita58

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability92

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment77

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration31

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	-2.0%	p4
Permit Growth	-24.2%	p13
Permits/1K Pop	4.82	p58
Affordability	0.35	p92
Employment	-0.3%	p77
Net AGI Migration	+$66K	p31

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-24.2%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both supply and demand are in contraction. The market is in full retreat — builders have stopped and buyers have pulled back.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY+17.4%

Days on Market YoY+21.7%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 9 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	51	6	19	92	87	31
2025-09	Hyp	51	11	19	92	83	31
2025-06	Ress	49	27	19	93	52	31
2025-04	Ress	47	39	19	93	31	31
2025-01	Rec	56	96	19	94	22	31
2024-12	Hyp	53	88	19	93	15	31
2024-10	Hyp	52	83	19	93	17	31
2024-08	Exp	51	83	19	93	10	31
2024-07	Ress	53	76	19	93	26	31
2024-06	Exp	50	57	19	92	33	31
2024-04	Exp	48	38	19	92	35	31
2024-01	Exp	47	26	19	90	46	31
2023-10	Exp	50	41	19	95	42	31
2023-08	Rec	52	55	19	96	43	31
2023-06	Rec	60	75	19	97	68	31
2023-04	Hyp	58	49	19	97	83	31
2023-02	Ress	56	37	19	96	83	31
2022-12	Ress	50	28	19	87	66	31
2022-10	Hyp	52	22	19	87	85	31
2022-08	Hyp	52	17	19	85	92	31
2022-06	Ress	58	47	19	88	91	31
2022-04	Ress	55	41	19	88	81	31
2022-03	Exp	55	46	19	87	78	31
2022-01	Rec	54	57	19	87	63	31
2021-11	Rec	58	74	19	91	59	36
2021-10	Exp	60	77	19	91	64	36
2021-08	Exp	57	74	19	91	53	36
2021-05	Exp	58	84	19	93	44	36
2021-04	Rec	54	83	19	93	21	36
2021-02	Rec	54	85	19	93	24	36
2021-01	Exp	58	89	19	93	42	36
2020-11	Exp	54	76	19	92	35	31
2020-10	Rec	54	73	19	92	38	31
2020-08	Rec	54	71	19	91	45	31
2020-06	Exp	56	85	19	92	41	31
2020-04	Exp	61	89	19	92	67	31
2020-03	Rec	60	73	19	91	76	31
2020-01	Rec	57	73	19	91	60	31
2019-12	Exp	63	76	19	91	86	35
2019-10	Exp	56	69	19	91	52	35
2019-07	Exp	57	92	19	92	33	35
2019-06	Rec	62	89	19	90	68	35
2019-04	Rec	57	92	19	90	34	35
2019-03	Exp	54	88	19	91	22	35
2019-01	Exp	51	79	19	91	10	35

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022