Rankings/Grand Junction, CO

Grand Junction, CO

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 24300Compare

Risk Rank: #17 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +14

66score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Grand Junction's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 17th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers. Valuations are also showing some stretch.

Grand Junction experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+25% YoY) and days on market are up +7% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Home prices are outpacing rents (-4.2% rent-price ratio change), indicating some valuation compression.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and affordability, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump98

12-month HPI change

Affordabilityp96

Mortgage payment / income

Employmentp78

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+25% YoY) and days on market are up +7% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+25.4%p76

Days on Market YoY

+7.4%p63

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Compressed—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-4.2%p14

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+6.5%p98

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-5.6%p37

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

5.17p62

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.40p96

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.4%p78

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$70Kp25

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-5.6%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both sides are decelerating. Broad market slowdown — builders and buyers are both pulling back simultaneously.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 18.3%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Hyp	63	94	30	94	74	25
2025-12	Hyp	54	55	14	95	77	25
2025-09	Hyp	51	11	19	92	83	31
2025-06	Ress	49	27	19	93	52	31
2025-04	Ress	47	39	19	93	31	31
2025-01	Rec	56	96	19	94	22	31
2024-12	Hyp	53	88	19	93	15	31
2024-10	Hyp	52	83	19	93	17	31
2024-08	Exp	51	83	19	93	10	31
2024-07	Ress	53	76	19	93	26	31
2024-06	Exp	50	57	19	92	33	31
2024-04	Exp	48	38	19	92	35	31
2024-01	Exp	47	26	19	90	46	31
2023-10	Exp	50	41	19	95	42	31
2023-08	Rec	52	55	19	96	43	31
2023-06	Rec	60	75	19	97	68	31
2023-04	Hyp	58	49	19	97	83	31
2023-02	Ress	56	37	19	96	83	31
2022-12	Ress	50	28	19	87	66	31
2022-10	Hyp	52	22	19	87	85	31
2022-08	Hyp	52	17	19	85	92	31
2022-06	Ress	58	47	19	88	91	31
2022-04	Ress	55	41	19	88	81	31
2022-03	Exp	55	46	19	87	78	31
2022-01	Rec	54	57	19	87	63	31
2021-11	Rec	58	74	19	91	59	36
2021-10	Exp	60	77	19	91	64	36
2021-08	Exp	57	74	19	91	53	36
2021-05	Exp	58	84	19	93	44	36
2021-04	Rec	54	83	19	93	21	36
2021-02	Rec	54	85	19	93	24	36
2021-01	Exp	58	89	19	93	42	36
2020-11	Exp	54	76	19	92	35	31
2020-10	Rec	54	73	19	92	38	31
2020-08	Rec	54	71	19	91	45	31
2020-06	Exp	56	85	19	92	41	31
2020-04	Exp	61	89	19	92	67	31
2020-03	Rec	60	73	19	91	76	31
2020-01	Rec	57	73	19	91	60	31
2019-12	Exp	63	76	19	91	86	35
2019-10	Exp	56	69	19	91	52	35
2019-07	Exp	57	92	19	92	33	35
2019-06	Rec	62	89	19	90	68	35
2019-04	Rec	57	92	19	90	34	35
2019-03	Exp	54	88	19	91	22	35
2019-01	Exp	51	79	19	91	10	35

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023