Rankings/Gainesville, GA

Gainesville, GA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 23580Compare

Risk Rank: #109 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -17

52score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Gainesville's housing market shows average risk, ranking 109th of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 8 months. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Significant oversupply — conditions increasingly favor buyers over sellers.

Gainesville experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory has surged +19% YoY with days on market up +16% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

8 months in current phase·from Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and price momentum, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap80

Permits per 1,000 residents

Price Momentump66

12-month HPI change

Employmentp62

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +19% YoY with days on market up +16% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+19.2%p69

Days on Market YoY

+15.6%p76

Months in status20

Data through Dec 2025

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+4.0%p66

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-12.1%p32

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

7.44p80

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.28p53

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

+0.0%p62

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$103Kp22

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-12.1%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are already retreating and demand is weak. A correction may be underway — the market is contracting on both the supply and demand side.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorManufacturing 24.7%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	61	35	94	51	69	23
2025-09	Hyp	62	44	94	51	71	23
2025-06	Hyp	63	67	94	50	54	23
2025-04	Ress	56	29	94	50	47	23
2025-02	Ress	60	46	94	50	57	23
2025-01	Hyp	59	55	94	50	40	23
2024-11	Hyp	72	89	94	54	77	23
2024-10	Ress	73	91	94	54	86	23
2024-08	Ress	51	27	94	46	22	23
2024-05	Ress	58	67	94	53	18	23
2024-04	Hyp	57	63	94	53	19	23
2024-03	Exp	55	55	94	50	15	23
2024-01	Exp	58	78	94	50	12	23
2023-10	Rec	50	30	94	59	3	23
2023-08	Rec	55	61	94	61	1	23
2023-05	Rec	58	72	94	61	4	23
2023-04	Hyp	57	67	94	61	3	23
2023-03	Ress	50	36	94	56	1	23
2023-01	Ress	54	57	94	57	3	23
2022-12	Hyp	60	94	94	55	0	23
2022-11	Ress	60	97	94	55	1	23
2022-09	Ress	59	90	94	52	3	23
2022-08	Hyp	60	89	94	52	8	23
2022-07	Ress	59	88	94	52	3	23
2022-05	Ress	62	98	94	54	12	23
2022-04	Hyp	64	99	94	54	24	23
2022-03	Exp	69	97	94	49	60	23
2022-01	Exp	66	92	94	49	45	23
2021-10	Exp	70	77	94	54	79	22
2021-07	Exp	70	83	94	53	77	22
2021-04	Rec	58	51	94	47	43	22
2021-02	Rec	57	80	94	47	8	22
2020-12	Exp	56	91	94	31	5	23
2020-10	Exp	55	85	94	31	6	23
2020-09	Rec	53	74	94	28	5	23
2020-07	Rec	54	81	94	28	5	23
2020-04	Exp	57	93	94	30	10	23
2020-02	Exp	51	53	94	26	18	23
2020-01	Rec	50	47	94	26	18	23
2019-11	Rec	56	58	94	27	43	22
2019-09	Ress	61	58	94	26	73	22
2019-07	Ress	62	91	94	26	49	22
2019-06	Hyp	59	87	94	25	32	22
2019-05	Ress	57	79	94	25	29	22
2019-03	Ress	56	73	94	26	32	22
2019-02	Rec	54	60	94	26	31	22
2019-01	Hyp	51	48	94	26	23	22

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023