Rankings/Gainesville, FL

Gainesville, FL

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 23540Compare

Risk Rank: #1 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +23

78score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Gainesville experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 2 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Gainesville's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 1st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Elevated, driven primarily by affordability and employment. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p98 (highest risk decile)

Mortgage payment / income

Employment

p92 (highest risk decile)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p87 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +9% pace with homes taking +7% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+8.8%p58

Days on Market YoY

+6.7%p61

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.6%p74

Months in status21

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum47

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth87

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita70

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability98

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment92

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration75

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.3%	p47
Permit Growth	+30.3%	p87
Permits/1K Pop	5.91	p70
Affordability	0.39	p98
Employment	-1.1%	p92
Net AGI Migration	-$38K	p75

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+30.3%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+8.8%

Days on Market YoY+6.7%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Gainesville's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Alachua County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Levy County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.9Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Gainesville, FL shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Alachua County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Levy County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Alachua CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	33.3%	0	100	100
Gilchrist County	50	Average	33.3%	100	50	0
Levy CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	33.3%	50	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	62	44	55	98	31	75
2025-10	Hyp	59	39	55	98	19	75
2025-08	Hyp	57	27	55	98	22	75
2025-07	Ress	58	25	55	98	28	75
2025-05	Ress	57	38	55	97	13	75
2025-04	Hyp	62	60	55	97	22	75
2025-02	Hyp	58	29	55	98	23	75
2024-11	Hyp	59	32	55	97	29	75
2024-08	Hyp	60	29	55	98	39	75
2024-06	Ress	61	3	55	97	70	75
2024-04	Ress	67	37	55	97	73	75
2024-01	Ress	76	90	55	99	71	75
2023-12	Hyp	75	80	55	96	77	75
2023-11	Exp	72	79	55	96	59	75
2023-09	Exp	77	96	55	98	73	75
2023-08	Rec	73	91	55	98	53	75
2023-06	Rec	61	33	55	95	41	75
2023-05	Ress	59	39	55	95	25	75
2023-03	Hyp	64	57	55	95	33	75
2023-02	Ress	63	62	55	95	24	75
2022-12	Ress	65	60	55	92	40	75
2022-10	Hyp	69	60	55	92	64	75
2022-09	Exp	73	82	55	93	66	75
2022-07	Hyp	75	83	55	93	77	75
2022-06	Exp	75	75	55	91	89	75
2022-04	Exp	74	76	55	91	78	75
2022-01	Rec	72	73	55	92	71	75
2021-11	Rec	69	74	55	94	44	82
2021-10	Exp	70	74	55	94	50	82
2021-08	Exp	69	63	55	93	57	82
2021-05	Exp	70	42	55	94	78	82
2021-04	Rec	64	37	55	94	51	82
2021-02	Rec	58	32	55	96	20	82
2021-01	Exp	59	32	55	96	25	82
2020-11	Exp	61	37	55	99	29	82
2020-10	Rec	62	46	55	99	25	82
2020-08	Rec	67	78	55	98	21	82
2020-05	Exp	67	89	55	99	11	82
2020-03	Exp	74	89	55	99	50	82
2020-02	Rec	73	83	55	99	52	82
2019-12	Rec	69	67	55	99	39	87
2019-11	Exp	71	86	55	99	30	87
2019-09	Exp	72	81	55	99	41	87
2019-08	Rec	71	78	55	99	41	87
2019-06	Rec	69	75	55	99	31	87
2019-03	Exp	71	79	55	99	38	87
2019-01	Exp	68	75	55	99	27	87

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022