Fresno, CA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 23420Compare

Risk Rank: #146 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↓ -5

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Fresno's housing market shows average risk, ranking 146th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Fresno experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (-2% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and price momentum, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp75

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentump74

12-month HPI change

Migrationp71

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-2% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-1.9%p46

Days on Market YoY

+5.8%p60

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.2%p79

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+2.2%p74

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-9.2%p33

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.92p33

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.32p75

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.6%p12

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$20Kp71

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-9.2%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 18.6%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Rec	45	69	21	75	4	71
2025-12	Hyp	50	35	34	75	52	71
2025-11	Rec	60	38	74	74	66	67
2025-10	Hyp	57	29	74	74	58	67
2025-08	Ress	58	37	74	74	56	67
2025-06	Ress	55	49	74	73	27	67
2025-05	Hyp	56	60	74	73	20	67
2025-04	Ress	58	71	74	73	21	67
2025-02	Ress	48	30	74	69	8	67
2025-01	Hyp	47	22	74	69	11	67
2024-12	Rec	52	48	74	75	8	67
2024-10	Hyp	52	46	74	75	9	67
2024-08	Hyp	51	41	74	73	9	67
2024-07	Ress	52	50	74	73	5	67
2024-05	Ress	46	10	74	71	17	67
2024-03	Exp	51	32	74	74	21	67
2024-01	Exp	52	46	74	74	11	67
2023-10	Exp	57	42	74	73	45	67
2023-08	Rec	52	23	74	71	35	67
2023-06	Rec	58	31	74	76	58	67
2023-04	Hyp	55	27	74	76	44	67
2023-02	Hyp	54	21	74	73	49	67
2023-01	Ress	56	20	74	73	59	67
2022-11	Ress	50	22	74	70	23	67
2022-09	Hyp	55	48	74	75	24	67
2022-08	Ress	57	55	74	75	28	67
2022-06	Ress	58	67	74	75	26	67
2022-03	Exp	56	73	74	78	6	67
2022-02	Rec	57	72	74	78	9	67
2021-12	Rec	55	73	74	77	9	58
2021-11	Exp	56	72	74	77	15	58
2021-09	Exp	57	73	74	76	19	58
2021-06	Exp	63	75	74	76	55	58
2021-03	Rec	65	75	74	75	70	58
2021-01	Rec	65	74	74	75	70	58
2020-12	Exp	62	56	74	80	61	61
2020-10	Exp	60	53	74	80	55	61
2020-09	Rec	59	43	74	80	56	61
2020-07	Rec	57	51	74	80	38	61
2020-06	Exp	58	58	74	80	34	61
2020-04	Exp	55	53	74	80	22	61
2020-03	Rec	51	42	74	80	7	61
2020-01	Rec	50	37	74	80	8	61
2019-10	Rec	52	32	74	81	8	76
2019-07	Rec	54	33	74	81	23	76
2019-05	Hyp	53	36	74	82	12	76
2019-04	Rec	54	38	74	82	14	76
2019-02	Hyp	60	59	74	83	27	76
2019-01	Hyp	59	61	74	83	20	76

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023