Rankings/Fort Wayne, IN

Fort Wayne, IN

NeutralTier 1CBSA 23060Compare

Risk Rank: #194 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -9

45score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Fort Wayne experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 1 month·Previously: Recession

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Fort Wayne's housing market shows average risk, ranking 194th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+13% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and migration. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p67 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Migration

p61 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employment

p50 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking +22% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+12.6%p62

Days on Market YoY

+21.6%p82

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.9%p50

Months in status22

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum67

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth10

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita42

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability38

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment50

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration61

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.5%	p67
Permit Growth	-26.7%	p10
Permits/1K Pop	3.29	p42
Affordability	0.26	p38
Employment	+0.3%	p50
Net AGI Migration	-$3K	p61

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-26.7%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+12.6%

Days on Market YoY+21.6%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Fort Wayne's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Allen County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Whitley County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.9Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Fort Wayne, IN shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Allen County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by affordability), while Whitley County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Allen CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	33.3%	50	50	100
Wells County	50	Average	33.3%	100	0	50
Whitley CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	33.3%	0	100	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Ress	46	59	21	36	44	60
2025-09	Ress	43	55	21	36	32	60
2025-08	Hyp	47	53	21	36	60	60
2025-07	Rec	41	56	21	36	17	60
2025-06	Hyp	51	48	21	36	89	60
2025-04	Ress	49	44	21	36	79	60
2025-02	Ress	50	51	21	36	81	60
2025-01	Hyp	49	61	21	36	60	60
2024-11	Hyp	52	82	21	38	55	60
2024-10	Rec	52	79	21	38	60	60
2024-08	Ress	54	83	21	38	65	60
2024-06	Ress	55	87	21	38	69	60
2024-05	Rec	53	76	21	38	67	60
2024-04	Hyp	51	71	21	38	64	60
2024-03	Ress	50	64	21	33	65	60
2024-01	Ress	56	88	21	33	81	60
2023-12	Hyp	56	92	21	41	67	60
2023-11	Rec	56	94	21	41	68	60
2023-10	Ress	54	94	21	41	56	60
2023-08	Ress	54	95	21	38	56	60
2023-07	Rec	54	94	21	38	56	60
2023-06	Ress	52	97	21	40	39	60
2023-04	Ress	52	91	21	40	44	60
2023-03	Hyp	46	58	21	31	51	60
2023-02	Ress	48	68	21	31	54	60
2022-12	Ress	47	69	21	24	52	60
2022-09	Hyp	37	47	21	24	18	60
2022-07	Ress	38	45	21	24	22	60
2022-05	Ress	43	63	21	25	35	60
2022-04	Hyp	44	64	21	25	40	60
2022-03	Rec	40	40	21	22	41	60
2022-01	Rec	44	53	21	22	55	60
2021-12	Exp	48	62	21	21	59	71
2021-10	Exp	50	57	21	21	75	71
2021-07	Rec	52	58	21	22	88	71
2021-05	Rec	43	70	21	21	20	71
2021-04	Exp	42	75	21	21	12	71
2021-02	Exp	42	53	21	18	35	71
2021-01	Rec	42	54	21	18	37	71
2020-11	Rec	48	79	21	20	39	73
2020-08	Rec	49	94	21	21	32	73
2020-06	Exp	49	74	21	19	52	73
2020-04	Exp	55	79	21	19	84	73
2020-03	Rec	54	80	21	18	79	73
2020-01	Rec	51	80	21	18	62	73
2019-12	Exp	43	64	21	18	51	53
2019-10	Exp	44	55	21	18	62	53
2019-07	Exp	44	89	21	18	33	53
2019-06	Rec	44	84	21	17	35	53
2019-04	Rec	44	82	21	17	39	53
2019-03	Exp	44	80	21	16	43	53
2019-01	Exp	43	84	21	16	29	53

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022