Rankings/Fort Smith, AR-OK

Fort Smith, AR-OK

NeutralTier 1CBSA 22900Compare

Risk Rank: #177 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -6

46score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Fort Smith experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Fort Smith's housing market shows average risk, ranking 177th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permit growth and affordability. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permit Growth

p81 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Affordability

p65 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Migration

p57 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+28% YoY) and days on market are up +1% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+28.1%p77

Days on Market YoY

+1.3%p50

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+6.5%p99

Months in status9

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum3

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth81

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita35

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability65

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment33

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration57

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	-2.4%	p3
Permit Growth	+19.0%	p81
Permits/1K Pop	2.83	p35
Affordability	0.29	p65
Employment	+0.7%	p33
Net AGI Migration	+$946	p57

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+19.0%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Building is elevated but demand is cooling. Early warning of supply-demand imbalance — if liquidity continues to soften, this pipeline could become a problem.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY+28.1%

Days on Market YoY+1.3%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Fort Smith's counties diverge significantly — Sebastian County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Crawford County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High23.6Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Fort Smith, AR-OK shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Sebastian County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Crawford County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Sebastian CountyRisk Driver	83	High Risk	33.3%	100	50	100
Crawford CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	33.3%	50	0	50
Sequoyah County	33	Below Average	33.3%	0	100	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	34	8	18	64	29	57
2025-09	Hyp	40	26	18	64	49	57
2025-07	Ress	43	21	18	64	72	57
2025-05	Ress	46	65	18	68	41	57
2025-04	Hyp	46	72	18	68	35	57
2025-02	Rec	55	98	18	77	52	57
2024-12	Rec	52	64	18	66	77	57
2024-11	Ress	51	60	18	66	77	57
2024-10	Hyp	49	54	18	66	69	57
2024-08	Hyp	54	73	18	67	79	57
2024-06	Ress	52	47	18	64	95	57
2024-04	Ress	50	38	18	64	97	57
2024-01	Ress	46	15	18	63	94	57
2023-11	Hyp	49	46	18	59	84	57
2023-09	Rec	50	55	18	58	87	57
2023-07	Rec	52	67	18	58	81	57
2023-06	Hyp	55	76	18	58	95	57
2023-04	Hyp	51	65	18	58	78	57
2023-02	Ress	56	94	18	64	77	57
2022-12	Ress	56	71	18	78	85	57
2022-10	Hyp	54	64	18	78	78	57
2022-09	Rec	49	47	18	77	69	57
2022-07	Rec	50	49	18	77	71	57
2022-06	Exp	54	59	18	78	82	57
2022-04	Exp	57	65	18	78	94	57
2022-01	Rec	54	49	18	76	98	57
2021-11	Rec	54	57	18	64	96	66
2021-10	Exp	53	53	18	64	92	66
2021-08	Exp	57	65	18	67	99	66
2021-05	Exp	54	59	18	66	86	66
2021-03	Rec	40	33	18	65	29	66
2021-01	Rec	35	20	18	65	17	66
2020-10	Rec	37	19	18	70	22	68
2020-07	Rec	34	5	18	66	17	68
2020-04	Exp	33	2	18	68	14	68
2020-02	Exp	48	11	18	72	91	68
2020-01	Rec	48	18	18	72	87	68
2019-11	Rec	48	33	18	73	72	65
2019-10	Exp	49	39	18	73	72	65
2019-08	Exp	46	16	18	72	82	65
2019-07	Rec	45	12	18	72	79	65
2019-05	Rec	56	61	18	76	89	65
2019-03	Exp	53	39	18	75	96	65
2019-01	Exp	50	18	18	75	96	65

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022