Fort Collins-Loveland, CO
Cycle Phase
Fort Collins experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.
Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption
Fort Collins's housing market shows average risk, ranking 41st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.
Executive Summary
Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permit growth and permits per capita. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.
Top Risk Drivers (This Month)
Market Signals
Inventory has surged +17% YoY with days on market up +14% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.
Liquidity
Valuation
Factor Details
Factor Breakdown
12-month HPI change — higher = overheating
YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure
Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk
Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
Underlying Values
| Metric | Value | Pctile |
|---|---|---|
| Price Momentum | +2.4% | p50 |
| Permit Growth | +35.6% | p90 |
| Permits/1K Pop | 6.51 | p73 |
| Affordability | 0.29 | p63 |
| Employment | -0.2% | p71 |
| Net AGI Migration | +$228K | p16 |
National ContextDoes not affect score
Credit Conditions
Credit Regime
Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.
Supply Pipeline
Supply Regime
Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.
Local SignalsDoes not affect score
Metro Permit Activity
Permit Activity
ElevatedRaw signal — not the composite percentile
Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro
Above-normal supply meeting deteriorating demand. Correction risk is rising — new units are entering a market where existing inventory is already building.
Liquidity
Liquidity
Internal Structure
County-level structural analysis.
County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.
Score History
| Month | Score |
|---|---|
| 2025-11 | 45 |
| 2025-10 | 42 |
| 2025-08 | 46 |
| 2025-05 | 40 |
| 2025-03 | 42 |
| 2025-01 | 45 |
| 2024-11 | 42 |
| 2024-09 | 46 |
| 2024-07 | 43 |
| 2024-06 | 40 |
| 2024-05 | 36 |
| 2024-03 | 27 |
| 2023-12 | 26 |
| 2023-10 | 28 |
| 2023-09 | 28 |
| 2023-07 | 31 |
| 2023-04 | 36 |
| 2023-03 | 41 |
| 2023-01 | 43 |
| 2022-12 | 39 |
| 2022-11 | 40 |
| 2022-09 | 46 |
| 2022-07 | 41 |
| 2022-05 | 41 |
| 2022-04 | 41 |
| 2022-03 | 41 |
| 2022-01 | 38 |
| 2021-12 | 37 |
| 2021-11 | 39 |
| 2021-10 | 39 |
| 2021-08 | 41 |
| 2021-05 | 40 |
| 2021-03 | 36 |
| 2021-02 | 37 |
| 2020-12 | 38 |
| 2020-11 | 36 |
| 2020-09 | 36 |
| 2020-06 | 35 |
| 2020-05 | 35 |
| 2020-03 | 31 |
| 2020-02 | 31 |
| 2019-12 | 34 |
| 2019-09 | 33 |
| 2019-07 | 33 |
| 2019-05 | 37 |
| 2019-03 | 38 |
| 2019-02 | 41 |
| 2019-01 | 40 |