Rankings/Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL

Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 22520Compare

Risk Rank: #39 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +12

60score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Florence's housing market shows average risk, ranking 39th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers. Valuations are also showing some stretch.

Florence has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Recovery.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +7% pace with homes taking -3% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Home prices are outpacing rents (-4.0% rent-price ratio change), indicating some valuation compression.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Expansion

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Valuation Lag — Liquidity is improving but rent-price ratios remain compressed.

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and price momentum, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permit Growthp95

YoY permit change

Price Momentump85

12-month HPI change

Migrationp53

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +7% pace with homes taking -3% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+6.8%p56

Days on Market YoY

-2.6%p42

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Compressed↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

-4.0%p15

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+5.1%p85

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+53.3%p95

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.54p31

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.28p50

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.3%p47

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$10Kp53

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+53.3%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 19.3%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	46	37	79	45	46	51
2025-09	Exp	48	50	79	45	44	51
2025-06	Exp	35	22	79	35	6	51
2025-03	Exp	40	41	79	44	12	51
2024-12	Exp	48	77	79	48	17	51
2024-09	Exp	50	59	79	39	58	51
2024-06	Exp	64	99	79	47	91	51
2024-03	Exp	60	94	79	48	74	51
2023-12	Exp	47	13	79	48	77	51
2023-09	Exp	46	44	79	44	45	51
2023-06	Exp	41	35	79	38	27	51
2023-03	Exp	60	99	79	60	58	51
2022-12	Exp	53	61	79	52	60	51
2022-09	Exp	54	77	79	51	53	51
2022-06	Exp	52	49	79	46	74	51
2022-03	Exp	56	73	79	52	66	51
2021-12	Exp	56	42	80	50	92	57
2021-09	Exp	56	41	80	50	91	57
2021-06	Exp	56	51	80	50	84	57
2021-03	Exp	49	50	80	50	41	57
2020-12	Exp	47	45	80	64	22	55
2020-09	Rec	51	63	80	64	30	55
2020-07	Rec	47	32	80	64	34	55
2020-04	Exp	50	34	80	62	55	55
2020-02	Exp	57	45	80	64	82	55
2020-01	Rec	56	27	80	64	91	55
2019-11	Rec	48	17	80	62	59	53
2019-08	Rec	58	76	80	65	58	53
2019-06	Exp	53	42	80	64	65	53
2019-04	Exp	45	22	80	64	36	53
2019-03	Rec	58	70	80	66	61	53
2019-01	Rec	54	71	80	66	35	53

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022