Rankings/Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL

Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 22520Compare

Risk Rank: #254 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -14

34score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Florence's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 254th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Significant oversupply — conditions increasingly favor buyers over sellers.

Florence experienced a market correction from mid-2026 through mid-2026. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory has surged +24% YoY with days on market up +16% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and affordability, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump69

12-month HPI change

Affordabilityp50

Mortgage payment / income

Migrationp48

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +24% YoY with days on market up +16% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+24.2%p75

Days on Market YoY

+16.1%p77

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.1%p46

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+3.1%p69

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-31.2%p6

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.76p14

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.29p50

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.4%p17

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$11Kp48

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-31.2%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Builders are already retreating and demand is weak. A correction may be underway — the market is contracting on both the supply and demand side.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 19.3%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Ress	41	12	92	39	28	48
2026-05	Hyp	47	31	98	39	31	48
2025-12	Rec	59	85	95	50	47	48
2025-11	Exp	46	37	79	45	46	51
2025-09	Exp	48	50	79	45	44	51
2025-06	Exp	35	22	79	35	6	51
2025-03	Exp	40	41	79	44	12	51
2024-12	Exp	48	77	79	48	17	51
2024-09	Exp	50	59	79	39	58	51
2024-06	Exp	64	99	79	47	91	51
2024-03	Exp	60	94	79	48	74	51
2023-12	Exp	47	13	79	48	77	51
2023-09	Exp	46	44	79	44	45	51
2023-06	Exp	41	35	79	38	27	51
2023-03	Exp	60	99	79	60	58	51
2022-12	Exp	53	61	79	52	60	51
2022-09	Exp	54	77	79	51	53	51
2022-06	Exp	52	49	79	46	74	51
2022-03	Exp	56	73	79	52	66	51
2021-12	Exp	56	42	80	50	92	57
2021-09	Exp	56	41	80	50	91	57
2021-06	Exp	56	51	80	50	84	57
2021-03	Exp	49	50	80	50	41	57
2020-12	Exp	47	45	80	64	22	55
2020-09	Rec	51	63	80	64	30	55
2020-07	Rec	47	32	80	64	34	55
2020-04	Exp	50	34	80	62	55	55
2020-02	Exp	57	45	80	64	82	55
2020-01	Rec	56	27	80	64	91	55
2019-11	Rec	48	17	80	62	59	53
2019-08	Rec	58	76	80	65	58	53
2019-06	Exp	53	42	80	64	65	53
2019-04	Exp	45	22	80	64	36	53
2019-03	Rec	58	70	80	66	61	53
2019-01	Rec	54	71	80	66	35	53

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023