Rankings/Florence, SC

Florence, SC

NeutralTier 1CBSA 22500Compare

Risk Rank: #97 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -15

53score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Florence's housing market shows average risk, ranking 97th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Florence experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+16% YoY) and days on market are up +3% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Recovery

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and affordability, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permit Growthp70

YoY permit change

Affordabilityp64

Mortgage payment / income

Migrationp64

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+16% YoY) and days on market are up +3% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+15.6%p65

Days on Market YoY

+2.7%p53

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.1%p67

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+3.6%p62

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+9.8%p70

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.64p55

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.29p64

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+2.1%p4

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$9Kp64

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+9.8%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 20.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	59	93	72	73	3	62
2025-09	Rec	60	99	72	73	2	62
2025-06	Rec	42	7	72	55	1	62
2025-04	Ress	45	15	72	55	12	62
2025-03	Hyp	64	99	72	71	26	62
2025-01	Rec	65	100	72	71	34	62
2024-12	Hyp	68	96	72	63	63	62
2024-11	Ress	68	91	72	63	70	62
2024-09	Ress	66	63	72	63	82	62
2024-08	Hyp	65	47	72	63	92	62
2024-06	Hyp	63	48	72	61	83	62
2024-04	Exp	62	79	72	61	44	62
2024-02	Exp	56	9	72	52	85	62
2023-11	Exp	58	29	72	71	62	62
2023-08	Rec	64	45	72	75	75	62
2023-06	Rec	59	21	72	67	80	62
2023-04	Ress	57	34	72	67	53	62
2023-03	Exp	60	83	72	72	18	62
2023-01	Exp	62	84	72	72	31	62
2022-12	Rec	58	72	72	64	28	62
2022-10	Rec	55	40	72	64	38	62
2022-08	Exp	60	71	72	65	38	62
2022-06	Exp	55	42	72	59	42	62
2022-04	Rec	59	49	72	59	62	62
2022-02	Rec	55	15	72	57	70	62
2021-12	Exp	64	49	72	53	82	76
2021-10	Exp	62	40	72	53	78	76
2021-07	Exp	53	13	72	49	59	76
2021-05	Rec	56	3	72	46	91	76
2021-03	Rec	49	7	72	53	36	76
2021-02	Exp	48	9	72	53	29	76
2020-12	Exp	50	29	72	50	32	68
2020-11	Rec	51	41	72	50	25	68
2020-09	Rec	50	25	72	49	34	68
2020-08	Exp	49	16	72	49	36	68
2020-06	Exp	62	86	72	53	39	68
2020-05	Rec	60	93	72	53	24	68
2020-03	Rec	68	90	72	50	76	68
2020-02	Hyp	70	91	72	50	90	68
2020-01	Rec	69	91	72	50	81	68
2019-11	Hyp	56	43	72	49	71	55
2019-09	Hyp	56	63	72	51	50	55
2019-08	Rec	53	49	72	51	42	55
2019-06	Ress	44	3	72	49	39	55
2019-04	Ress	44	3	72	49	40	55
2019-03	Exp	48	0	72	48	66	55
2019-01	Exp	46	0	72	48	56	55

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023