Flint, MI

NeutralTier 1CBSA 22420Compare

Risk Rank: #173 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):— -4

47score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Flint's housing market shows average risk, ranking 173rd of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Flint experienced a market correction from late 2024 through early 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +5% pace with homes taking -11% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and permit growth, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump82

12-month HPI change

Permit Growthp69

YoY permit change

Migrationp53

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +5% pace with homes taking -11% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+5.3%p54

Days on Market YoY

-11.1%p27

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.8%p86

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+2.8%p82

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+8.9%p69

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.10p7

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.26p30

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.3%p42

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$2Kp53

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+8.9%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 17.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Rec	46	87	74	30	27	53
2025-11	Exp	45	90	62	31	17	66
2025-09	Exp	46	91	62	31	22	66
2025-08	Rec	50	89	62	31	50	66
2025-06	Rec	50	81	62	28	61	66
2025-04	Hyp	47	84	62	28	37	66
2025-02	Ress	46	87	62	29	30	66
2024-12	Ress	44	59	62	23	48	66
2024-10	Hyp	36	49	62	23	15	66
2024-09	Rec	46	64	62	26	52	66
2024-08	Ress	42	60	62	26	33	66
2024-06	Ress	41	38	62	25	51	66
2024-05	Exp	45	38	62	25	73	66
2024-03	Exp	41	29	62	23	63	66
2023-12	Exp	48	57	62	26	76	66
2023-09	Exp	50	60	62	28	78	66
2023-08	Rec	49	60	62	28	76	66
2023-06	Rec	41	60	62	28	28	66
2023-03	Hyp	37	31	62	25	34	66
2023-01	Ress	36	25	62	25	31	66
2022-11	Ress	40	22	62	28	56	66
2022-10	Hyp	36	23	62	28	34	66
2022-09	Ress	32	13	62	28	20	66
2022-07	Ress	37	8	62	28	54	66
2022-06	Hyp	42	10	62	29	81	66
2022-04	Ress	36	15	62	29	38	66
2022-02	Ress	47	28	62	34	86	66
2022-01	Hyp	41	29	62	34	51	66
2021-12	Ress	42	29	62	38	43	77
2021-10	Ress	49	34	62	38	79	77
2021-09	Hyp	55	58	62	42	88	77
2021-08	Exp	57	59	62	42	100	77
2021-06	Exp	43	68	62	42	7	77
2021-03	Exp	54	80	62	41	63	77
2020-12	Exp	56	84	62	34	80	70
2020-11	Rec	53	82	62	34	67	70
2020-09	Rec	48	50	62	31	73	70
2020-06	Rec	48	35	62	31	89	70
2020-04	Exp	50	34	62	31	99	70
2020-02	Exp	48	59	62	31	59	70
2020-01	Rec	52	70	62	31	74	70
2019-11	Rec	48	73	62	31	59	56
2019-08	Exp	42	61	62	33	36	56
2019-06	Exp	50	62	62	33	81	56
2019-05	Rec	53	64	62	33	97	56
2019-03	Rec	44	40	62	29	76	56
2019-01	Hyp	46	52	62	29	76	56

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023