Rankings/Flint, MI

Flint, MI

NeutralTier 1CBSA 22420Compare

Risk Rank: #158 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +4

48score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Flint experienced a market correction from late 2024 through early 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 1 month·Previously: Expansion

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Flint's housing market shows average risk, ranking 158th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and permit growth. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p85 (elevated risk)

12-month HPI change

Permit Growth

p74 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Migration

p66 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-4.4%p44

Days on Market YoY

-3.5%p41

Months in status8

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.4%p43

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum85

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth74

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita6

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability32

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment26

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration66

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+4.7%	p85
Permit Growth	+12.9%	p74
Permits/1K Pop	1.08	p6
Affordability	0.25	p32
Employment	+0.8%	p26
Net AGI Migration	-$14K	p66

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+12.9%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY-4.4%

Days on Market YoY-3.5%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 8 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	45	90	62	31	17	66
2025-09	Exp	46	91	62	31	22	66
2025-08	Rec	50	89	62	31	50	66
2025-06	Rec	50	81	62	28	61	66
2025-04	Hyp	47	84	62	28	37	66
2025-02	Ress	46	87	62	29	30	66
2024-12	Ress	44	59	62	23	48	66
2024-10	Hyp	36	49	62	23	15	66
2024-09	Rec	46	64	62	26	52	66
2024-08	Ress	42	60	62	26	33	66
2024-06	Ress	41	38	62	25	51	66
2024-05	Exp	45	38	62	25	73	66
2024-03	Exp	41	29	62	23	63	66
2023-12	Exp	48	57	62	26	76	66
2023-09	Exp	50	60	62	28	78	66
2023-08	Rec	49	60	62	28	76	66
2023-06	Rec	41	60	62	28	28	66
2023-03	Hyp	37	31	62	25	34	66
2023-01	Ress	36	25	62	25	31	66
2022-11	Ress	40	22	62	28	56	66
2022-10	Hyp	36	23	62	28	34	66
2022-09	Ress	32	13	62	28	20	66
2022-07	Ress	37	8	62	28	54	66
2022-06	Hyp	42	10	62	29	81	66
2022-04	Ress	36	15	62	29	38	66
2022-02	Ress	47	28	62	34	86	66
2022-01	Hyp	41	29	62	34	51	66
2021-12	Ress	42	29	62	38	43	77
2021-10	Ress	49	34	62	38	79	77
2021-09	Hyp	55	58	62	42	88	77
2021-08	Exp	57	59	62	42	100	77
2021-06	Exp	43	68	62	42	7	77
2021-03	Exp	54	80	62	41	63	77
2020-12	Exp	56	84	62	34	80	70
2020-11	Rec	53	82	62	34	67	70
2020-09	Rec	48	50	62	31	73	70
2020-06	Rec	48	35	62	31	89	70
2020-04	Exp	50	34	62	31	99	70
2020-02	Exp	48	59	62	31	59	70
2020-01	Rec	52	70	62	31	74	70
2019-11	Rec	48	73	62	31	59	56
2019-08	Exp	42	61	62	33	36	56
2019-06	Exp	50	62	62	33	81	56
2019-05	Rec	53	64	62	33	97	56
2019-03	Rec	44	40	62	29	76	56
2019-01	Hyp	46	52	62	29	76	56

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022