Rankings/Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR

Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR

NeutralTier 1CBSA 22220Compare

Risk Rank: #158 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -2

48score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Fayetteville experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 2 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Fayetteville's housing market shows average risk, ranking 158th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permits per capita and permit growth. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p98 (highest risk decile)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growth

p71 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Affordability

p55 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +44% YoY with days on market up +17% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+43.9%p88

Days on Market YoY

+17.2%p78

Months in status7

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.6%p85

Months in status23

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum41

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth71

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita98

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability55

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment0

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration20

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.9%	p41
Permit Growth	+10.9%	p71
Permits/1K Pop	15.42	p98
Affordability	0.28	p55
Employment	+3.5%	p0
Net AGI Migration	+$186K	p20

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+10.9%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY+43.9%

Days on Market YoY+17.2%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 7 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Fayetteville's counties diverge significantly — Washington County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Madison County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High36.0Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Fayetteville, AR shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Washington County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Madison County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Washington CountyRisk Driver	100	High Risk	33.3%	100	100	100
Benton County	33	Below Average	33.3%	50	0	50
Madison CountyStabilizer	17	Low Risk	33.3%	0	50	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	48	46	69	54	1	20
2025-10	Ress	48	48	69	54	1	20
2025-08	Ress	48	49	69	54	2	20
2025-05	Hyp	50	59	69	56	1	20
2025-03	Exp	53	69	69	55	7	20
2025-02	Rec	52	69	69	55	4	20
2024-12	Rec	50	52	69	54	9	20
2024-11	Exp	48	42	69	54	10	20
2024-09	Exp	48	40	69	56	5	20
2024-08	Rec	49	48	69	56	4	20
2024-06	Rec	50	51	69	53	14	20
2024-05	Hyp	50	46	69	53	16	20
2024-03	Exp	49	42	69	53	14	20
2024-02	Rec	49	40	69	53	15	20
2023-12	Rec	55	69	69	54	21	20
2023-11	Hyp	59	77	69	54	36	20
2023-09	Hyp	57	74	69	50	35	20
2023-06	Hyp	59	85	69	52	32	20
2023-03	Ress	59	96	69	52	21	20
2023-01	Ress	58	97	69	52	12	20
2022-10	Ress	54	85	69	51	4	20
2022-09	Hyp	54	87	69	50	3	20
2022-08	Ress	54	87	69	50	4	20
2022-06	Ress	54	91	69	45	6	20
2022-05	Hyp	54	91	69	45	5	20
2022-04	Exp	56	91	69	45	12	20
2022-02	Rec	56	89	69	42	17	20
2021-12	Rec	55	89	69	30	25	21
2021-11	Exp	56	88	69	30	33	21
2021-09	Exp	55	86	69	27	30	21
2021-06	Exp	54	81	69	24	32	21
2021-03	Rec	47	68	69	21	8	21
2021-01	Rec	48	75	69	21	5	21
2020-12	Exp	51	74	69	37	8	20
2020-10	Exp	48	59	69	37	4	20
2020-09	Rec	45	46	69	36	3	20
2020-07	Rec	44	43	69	35	4	20
2020-06	Exp	45	43	69	36	4	20
2020-04	Exp	44	43	69	36	2	20
2020-03	Rec	40	18	69	34	0	20
2020-01	Rec	40	22	69	34	2	20
2019-10	Rec	43	36	69	36	3	20
2019-07	Rec	50	69	69	36	7	20
2019-04	Rec	53	70	69	37	28	20
2019-03	Exp	56	72	69	39	37	20
2019-01	Exp	52	58	69	38	30	20

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022