Rankings/Fayetteville, NC

Fayetteville, NC

NeutralTier 1CBSA 22180Compare

Risk Rank: #38 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↑ +10

60score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Fayetteville's housing market shows average risk, ranking 38th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Fayetteville experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (-0% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and migration, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump96

12-month HPI change

Migrationp92

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employmentp85

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-0% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

-0.3%p48

Days on Market YoY

+3.9%p56

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.6%p55

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+3.7%p96

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-39.7%p3

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.40p41

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.28p45

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.5%p85

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$126Kp92

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-39.7%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 39.5%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Exp	60	88	2	45	89	92
2025-12	Rec	65	22	77	40	94	92
2025-10	Rec	51	34	12	38	82	84
2025-07	Hyp	48	17	12	38	82	84
2025-05	Hyp	55	45	12	42	87	84
2025-04	Ress	56	51	12	42	87	84
2025-02	Ress	64	88	12	46	97	84
2025-01	Hyp	64	88	12	46	97	84
2024-11	Hyp	60	64	12	42	100	84
2024-08	Hyp	63	94	12	47	84	84
2024-07	Ress	62	96	12	47	74	84
2024-05	Ress	59	81	12	43	76	84
2024-02	Ress	48	46	12	38	53	84
2023-11	Ress	48	91	12	32	10	84
2023-09	Hyp	49	88	12	27	25	84
2023-08	Rec	52	90	12	27	40	84
2023-06	Rec	58	95	12	29	73	84
2023-05	Hyp	55	92	12	29	56	84
2023-03	Ress	58	96	12	29	69	84
2023-01	Ress	58	99	12	29	66	84
2022-10	Hyp	58	81	12	20	96	84
2022-08	Ress	58	78	12	19	97	84
2022-06	Ress	56	87	12	21	76	84
2022-05	Hyp	59	86	12	21	94	84
2022-04	Exp	59	85	12	21	94	84
2022-02	Rec	52	60	12	16	85	84
2021-12	Rec	52	51	11	18	84	89
2021-11	Exp	49	46	11	18	72	89
2021-09	Exp	45	29	11	16	65	89
2021-06	Exp	47	42	11	15	66	89
2021-04	Rec	51	65	11	15	70	89
2021-02	Rec	38	37	11	14	22	89
2021-01	Exp	39	26	11	14	34	89
2020-11	Exp	50	83	11	29	29	87
2020-09	Rec	50	88	11	28	27	87
2020-07	Rec	53	93	11	28	43	87
2020-04	Rec	38	24	11	24	26	87
2020-01	Rec	56	97	11	29	55	87
2019-11	Exp	56	95	11	26	60	88
2019-09	Exp	43	56	11	22	25	88
2019-06	Exp	50	53	11	26	69	88
2019-05	Rec	54	63	11	26	78	88
2019-03	Rec	44	17	11	23	66	88
2019-01	Rec	42	6	11	23	68	88

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023