Rankings/Fargo, ND-MN

Fargo, ND-MN

NeutralTier 1CBSA 22020Compare

Risk Rank: #142 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):— +1

49score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Fargo's housing market shows average risk, ranking 142nd of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Fargo experienced a market correction from mid-2024 through mid-2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (-1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and migration, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump93

12-month HPI change

Migrationp58

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap55

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

-1.3%p47

Days on Market YoY

-1.9%p44

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.8%p35

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+4.8%p93

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-26.0%p9

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.48p55

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.29p47

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.8%p34

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

-$2Kp58

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-26.0%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorHealth Care 17.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	54	33	56	41	70	58
2025-12	Rec	58	50	57	38	78	58
2025-09	Rec	43	49	9	40	44	53
2025-08	Exp	48	45	9	40	79	53
2025-06	Exp	46	58	9	42	51	53
2025-05	Rec	52	68	9	42	76	53
2025-03	Rec	47	33	9	39	85	53
2025-02	Exp	47	37	9	39	81	53
2024-12	Exp	50	58	9	41	71	53
2024-11	Rec	49	46	9	41	78	53
2024-09	Rec	46	46	9	44	62	53
2024-08	Hyp	42	44	9	44	35	53
2024-07	Rec	43	44	9	44	41	53
2024-05	Ress	37	24	9	40	31	53
2024-03	Hyp	39	13	9	41	53	53
2024-01	Rec	40	10	9	41	62	53
2023-11	Rec	43	22	9	46	62	53
2023-10	Ress	40	23	9	46	47	53
2023-08	Ress	40	32	9	47	35	53
2023-07	Hyp	41	38	9	47	33	53
2023-05	Hyp	41	33	9	47	40	53
2023-02	Hyp	40	42	9	49	23	53
2023-01	Ress	42	41	9	49	37	53
2022-11	Ress	43	50	9	51	31	53
2022-10	Hyp	49	48	9	51	66	53
2022-09	Rec	45	20	9	47	77	53
2022-07	Exp	39	16	9	47	43	53
2022-05	Exp	43	10	9	46	74	53
2022-02	Rec	44	7	9	49	82	53
2021-12	Rec	40	6	9	47	49	65
2021-11	Exp	40	5	9	47	51	65
2021-09	Exp	41	6	9	51	48	65
2021-06	Exp	40	6	9	54	42	65
2021-05	Rec	46	7	9	54	77	65
2021-03	Rec	38	4	9	57	29	65
2021-02	Exp	38	3	9	57	31	65
2020-12	Exp	41	4	9	61	38	70
2020-11	Rec	41	5	9	61	34	70
2020-09	Rec	39	5	9	62	25	70
2020-06	Rec	42	2	9	63	43	70
2020-03	Rec	40	7	9	65	26	70
2019-12	Rec	44	6	9	65	68	51
2019-11	Exp	42	6	9	65	56	51
2019-09	Exp	42	4	9	66	55	51
2019-06	Exp	39	9	9	68	29	51
2019-05	Hyp	40	7	9	68	37	51
2019-03	Exp	42	6	9	67	54	51
2019-01	Exp	46	8	9	67	75	51

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023