Rankings/Fargo, ND-MN

Fargo, ND-MN

NeutralTier 1CBSA 22020Compare

Risk Rank: #51 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +8

58score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Fargo's housing market shows average risk, ranking 51st of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Fargo experienced a market correction from mid-2024 through mid-2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (-3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

4 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and permits per capita, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp78

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap68

Permits per 1,000 residents

Migrationp58

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-2.9%p46

Days on Market YoY

-29.6%p9

Months in status16

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.3%p30

Months in status37

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+3.1%p50

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

+1.7%p57

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

5.80p68

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.27p38

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.3%p78

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

-$2Kp58

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+1.7%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorHealth Care 17.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	43	62	9	40	28	53
2025-09	Rec	43	49	9	40	44	53
2025-08	Exp	48	45	9	40	79	53
2025-06	Exp	46	58	9	42	51	53
2025-05	Rec	52	68	9	42	76	53
2025-03	Rec	47	33	9	39	85	53
2025-02	Exp	47	37	9	39	81	53
2024-12	Exp	50	58	9	41	71	53
2024-11	Rec	49	46	9	41	78	53
2024-09	Rec	46	46	9	44	62	53
2024-08	Hyp	42	44	9	44	35	53
2024-07	Rec	43	44	9	44	41	53
2024-05	Ress	37	24	9	40	31	53
2024-03	Hyp	39	13	9	41	53	53
2024-01	Rec	40	10	9	41	62	53
2023-11	Rec	43	22	9	46	62	53
2023-10	Ress	40	23	9	46	47	53
2023-08	Ress	40	32	9	47	35	53
2023-07	Hyp	41	38	9	47	33	53
2023-05	Hyp	41	33	9	47	40	53
2023-02	Hyp	40	42	9	49	23	53
2023-01	Ress	42	41	9	49	37	53
2022-11	Ress	43	50	9	51	31	53
2022-10	Hyp	49	48	9	51	66	53
2022-09	Rec	45	20	9	47	77	53
2022-07	Exp	39	16	9	47	43	53
2022-05	Exp	43	10	9	46	74	53
2022-02	Rec	44	7	9	49	82	53
2021-12	Rec	40	6	9	47	49	65
2021-11	Exp	40	5	9	47	51	65
2021-09	Exp	41	6	9	51	48	65
2021-06	Exp	40	6	9	54	42	65
2021-05	Rec	46	7	9	54	77	65
2021-03	Rec	38	4	9	57	29	65
2021-02	Exp	38	3	9	57	31	65
2020-12	Exp	41	4	9	61	38	70
2020-11	Rec	41	5	9	61	34	70
2020-09	Rec	39	5	9	62	25	70
2020-06	Rec	42	2	9	63	43	70
2020-03	Rec	40	7	9	65	26	70
2019-12	Rec	44	6	9	65	68	51
2019-11	Exp	42	6	9	65	56	51
2019-09	Exp	42	4	9	66	55	51
2019-06	Exp	39	9	9	68	29	51
2019-05	Hyp	40	7	9	68	37	51
2019-03	Exp	42	6	9	67	54	51
2019-01	Exp	46	8	9	67	75	51

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023