Rankings/Fargo, ND-MN

Fargo, ND-MN

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 22020Compare

Risk Rank: #30 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +12

62score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Fargo experienced a market correction from mid-2024 through mid-2024. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 4 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Valuation Lag — Liquidity is improving but rent-price ratios remain compressed.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Fargo's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 30th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Elevated, driven primarily by employment and price momentum. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is compressed.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Employment

p79 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p75 (elevated risk)

12-month HPI change

Permits per Capita

p69 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-2.9%p46

Days on Market YoY

-29.6%p9

Months in status16

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Compressed—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-3.1%p23

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum75

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth57

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita69

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability42

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment79

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration53

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.9%	p75
Permit Growth	+1.7%	p57
Permits/1K Pop	5.80	p69
Affordability	0.27	p42
Employment	-0.3%	p79
Net AGI Migration	+$8K	p53

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+1.7%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY-2.9%

Days on Market YoY-29.6%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 16 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	43	62	9	40	28	53
2025-09	Rec	43	49	9	40	44	53
2025-08	Exp	48	45	9	40	79	53
2025-06	Exp	46	58	9	42	51	53
2025-05	Rec	52	68	9	42	76	53
2025-03	Rec	47	33	9	39	85	53
2025-02	Exp	47	37	9	39	81	53
2024-12	Exp	50	58	9	41	71	53
2024-11	Rec	49	46	9	41	78	53
2024-09	Rec	46	46	9	44	62	53
2024-08	Hyp	42	44	9	44	35	53
2024-07	Rec	43	44	9	44	41	53
2024-05	Ress	37	24	9	40	31	53
2024-03	Hyp	39	13	9	41	53	53
2024-01	Rec	40	10	9	41	62	53
2023-11	Rec	43	22	9	46	62	53
2023-10	Ress	40	23	9	46	47	53
2023-08	Ress	40	32	9	47	35	53
2023-07	Hyp	41	38	9	47	33	53
2023-05	Hyp	41	33	9	47	40	53
2023-02	Hyp	40	42	9	49	23	53
2023-01	Ress	42	41	9	49	37	53
2022-11	Ress	43	50	9	51	31	53
2022-10	Hyp	49	48	9	51	66	53
2022-09	Rec	45	20	9	47	77	53
2022-07	Exp	39	16	9	47	43	53
2022-05	Exp	43	10	9	46	74	53
2022-02	Rec	44	7	9	49	82	53
2021-12	Rec	40	6	9	47	49	65
2021-11	Exp	40	5	9	47	51	65
2021-09	Exp	41	6	9	51	48	65
2021-06	Exp	40	6	9	54	42	65
2021-05	Rec	46	7	9	54	77	65
2021-03	Rec	38	4	9	57	29	65
2021-02	Exp	38	3	9	57	31	65
2020-12	Exp	41	4	9	61	38	70
2020-11	Rec	41	5	9	61	34	70
2020-09	Rec	39	5	9	62	25	70
2020-06	Rec	42	2	9	63	43	70
2020-03	Rec	40	7	9	65	26	70
2019-12	Rec	44	6	9	65	68	51
2019-11	Exp	42	6	9	65	56	51
2019-09	Exp	42	4	9	66	55	51
2019-06	Exp	39	9	9	68	29	51
2019-05	Hyp	40	7	9	68	37	51
2019-03	Exp	42	6	9	67	54	51
2019-01	Exp	46	8	9	67	75	51

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022