Rankings/Evansville, IN

Evansville, IN

NeutralTier 1CBSA 21780Compare

Risk Rank: #85 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↑ +7

55score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Evansville's housing market shows average risk, ranking 85th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Significant oversupply — conditions increasingly favor buyers over sellers.

Evansville experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory has surged +18% YoY with days on market up +15% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and migration, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp96

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migrationp63

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp56

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +18% YoY with days on market up +15% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+18.2%p68

Days on Market YoY

+15.4%p75

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+4.7%p97

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.3%p39

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

+1.4%p56

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

3.01p37

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.27p38

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-2.0%p96

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$9Kp63

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+1.4%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorManufacturing 18.9%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Evansville's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Warrick County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Posey County anchors the lower end.

Moderate14.0Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Evansville, IN shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Warrick County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Posey County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Warrick CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	24.1%	50	100	50
Vanderburgh County	50	Average	66.6%	0	50	100
Posey CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	9.3%	100	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Hyp	50	52	50	35	62	63
2025-10	Ress	48	69	17	39	65	68
2025-08	Ress	48	77	17	39	52	68
2025-07	Hyp	47	78	17	39	50	68
2025-06	Rec	51	91	17	40	60	68
2025-05	Hyp	48	92	17	40	41	68
2025-03	Hyp	45	49	17	36	69	68
2025-02	Rec	46	50	17	36	74	68
2024-12	Hyp	51	76	17	39	76	68
2024-10	Hyp	48	67	17	39	63	68
2024-07	Ress	44	33	17	37	74	68
2024-05	Ress	45	29	17	36	89	68
2024-02	Ress	46	38	17	35	88	68
2024-01	Hyp	47	43	17	35	86	68
2023-12	Exp	48	54	17	35	80	68
2023-11	Hyp	48	53	17	35	82	68
2023-10	Exp	48	54	17	35	85	68
2023-08	Rec	50	63	17	37	81	68
2023-06	Rec	47	53	17	35	79	68
2023-05	Hyp	48	57	17	35	81	68
2023-03	Ress	43	39	17	34	69	68
2023-01	Ress	43	33	17	34	76	68
2022-10	Ress	41	28	17	32	69	68
2022-09	Rec	42	31	17	34	68	68
2022-07	Hyp	44	34	17	35	77	68
2022-05	Hyp	38	14	17	34	65	68
2022-04	Exp	37	12	17	34	60	68
2022-02	Exp	45	27	17	38	86	68
2022-01	Rec	47	33	17	38	92	68
2021-11	Rec	43	34	17	34	85	56
2021-10	Exp	43	35	17	34	85	56
2021-08	Exp	43	38	17	33	81	56
2021-05	Exp	44	56	17	37	64	56
2021-04	Rec	38	49	17	37	36	56
2021-02	Rec	35	30	17	36	39	56
2021-01	Exp	35	31	17	36	39	56
2020-11	Exp	36	38	17	38	42	53
2020-10	Rec	38	42	17	38	48	53
2020-08	Rec	34	9	17	37	56	53
2020-05	Rec	38	23	17	41	61	53
2020-02	Rec	47	42	17	41	98	53
2019-11	Exp	42	25	17	39	96	47
2019-09	Exp	52	81	17	44	95	47
2019-08	Rec	51	82	17	44	86	47
2019-06	Rec	44	55	17	42	75	47
2019-05	Exp	45	51	17	42	82	47
2019-03	Exp	36	45	17	42	32	47
2019-01	Exp	37	42	17	42	41	47

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023