Rankings/Eugene-Springfield, OR

Eugene-Springfield, OR

NeutralTier 1CBSA 21660Compare

Risk Rank: #55 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +4

58score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Eugene experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 4 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Eugene's housing market shows average risk, ranking 55th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by affordability and employment. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p86 (elevated risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Employment

p85 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capita

p51 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+0.9%p50

Days on Market YoY

+10.4%p68

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.1%p88

Months in status44

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum48

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth35

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita51

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability86

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment85

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration43

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.3%	p48
Permit Growth	-9.7%	p35
Permits/1K Pop	3.90	p51
Affordability	0.33	p86
Employment	-0.5%	p85
Net AGI Migration	+$27K	p43

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-9.7%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+0.9%

Days on Market YoY+10.4%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 4 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	69	55	88	86	89	43
2025-09	Rec	69	52	88	86	92	43
2025-08	Hyp	60	37	88	86	54	43
2025-06	Hyp	61	12	88	84	85	43
2025-05	Ress	60	15	88	84	77	43
2025-03	Ress	61	34	88	85	62	43
2025-02	Hyp	58	28	88	85	48	43
2025-01	Ress	56	24	88	85	43	43
2024-11	Ress	54	9	88	83	46	43
2024-10	Hyp	58	14	88	83	65	43
2024-08	Hyp	64	34	88	86	75	43
2024-06	Ress	62	19	88	85	81	43
2024-04	Ress	59	17	88	85	68	43
2024-03	Hyp	62	23	88	87	76	43
2024-01	Hyp	63	17	88	87	89	43
2023-12	Ress	59	9	88	85	76	43
2023-10	Ress	56	11	88	85	56	43
2023-08	Hyp	60	13	88	87	71	43
2023-07	Rec	62	14	88	87	84	43
2023-06	Ress	55	15	88	88	39	43
2023-04	Ress	58	16	88	88	57	43
2023-03	Hyp	59	19	88	88	61	43
2023-01	Ress	57	16	88	88	53	43
2022-11	Ress	64	17	88	92	91	43
2022-09	Rec	63	21	88	92	78	43
2022-08	Ress	64	19	88	92	87	43
2022-06	Hyp	63	29	88	93	69	43
2022-04	Exp	64	41	88	93	63	43
2022-02	Exp	63	63	88	94	36	43
2022-01	Rec	63	66	88	94	30	43
2021-11	Rec	67	73	88	92	47	48
2021-09	Exp	70	91	88	94	42	48
2021-07	Exp	72	88	88	94	62	48
2021-05	Rec	70	89	88	95	46	48
2021-03	Rec	77	89	88	95	87	48
2021-02	Exp	78	90	88	95	91	48
2020-12	Exp	72	79	88	94	89	30
2020-11	Rec	73	84	88	93	86	30
2020-09	Rec	73	87	88	94	84	30
2020-06	Rec	72	88	88	94	79	30
2020-05	Exp	72	86	88	94	79	30
2020-03	Exp	66	85	88	94	44	30
2019-12	Rec	67	82	88	94	56	28
2019-10	Rec	67	80	88	94	56	28
2019-07	Exp	68	81	88	94	65	28
2019-05	Exp	67	82	88	93	58	28
2019-04	Rec	67	82	88	93	56	28
2019-02	Rec	72	81	88	93	85	28
2019-01	Rec	68	82	88	93	66	28

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022