Rankings/Eugene-Springfield, OR

Eugene-Springfield, OR

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 21660Compare

Risk Rank: #34 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):— +1

61score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Eugene's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 34th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Eugene experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is declining (-6% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and affordability, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp94

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp85

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growthp53

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-6% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-5.8%p42

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p45

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.2%p80

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+1.6%p51

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-0.1%p53

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.86p48

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.34p85

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-1.5%p94

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$40Kp35

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-0.1%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 17.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Rec	55	41	34	85	85	35
2025-10	Rec	69	62	88	86	78	43
2025-08	Hyp	60	37	88	86	54	43
2025-06	Hyp	61	12	88	84	85	43
2025-05	Ress	60	15	88	84	77	43
2025-03	Ress	61	34	88	85	62	43
2025-02	Hyp	58	28	88	85	48	43
2025-01	Ress	56	24	88	85	43	43
2024-11	Ress	54	9	88	83	46	43
2024-10	Hyp	58	14	88	83	65	43
2024-08	Hyp	64	34	88	86	75	43
2024-06	Ress	62	19	88	85	81	43
2024-04	Ress	59	17	88	85	68	43
2024-03	Hyp	62	23	88	87	76	43
2024-01	Hyp	63	17	88	87	89	43
2023-12	Ress	59	9	88	85	76	43
2023-10	Ress	56	11	88	85	56	43
2023-08	Hyp	60	13	88	87	71	43
2023-07	Rec	62	14	88	87	84	43
2023-06	Ress	55	15	88	88	39	43
2023-04	Ress	58	16	88	88	57	43
2023-03	Hyp	59	19	88	88	61	43
2023-01	Ress	57	16	88	88	53	43
2022-11	Ress	64	17	88	92	91	43
2022-09	Rec	63	21	88	92	78	43
2022-08	Ress	64	19	88	92	87	43
2022-06	Hyp	63	29	88	93	69	43
2022-04	Exp	64	41	88	93	63	43
2022-02	Exp	63	63	88	94	36	43
2022-01	Rec	63	66	88	94	30	43
2021-11	Rec	67	73	88	92	47	48
2021-09	Exp	70	91	88	94	42	48
2021-07	Exp	72	88	88	94	62	48
2021-05	Rec	70	89	88	95	46	48
2021-03	Rec	77	89	88	95	87	48
2021-02	Exp	78	90	88	95	91	48
2020-12	Exp	72	79	88	94	89	30
2020-11	Rec	73	84	88	93	86	30
2020-09	Rec	73	87	88	94	84	30
2020-06	Rec	72	88	88	94	79	30
2020-05	Exp	72	86	88	94	79	30
2020-03	Exp	66	85	88	94	44	30
2019-12	Rec	67	82	88	94	56	28
2019-10	Rec	67	80	88	94	56	28
2019-07	Exp	68	81	88	94	65	28
2019-05	Exp	67	82	88	93	58	28
2019-04	Rec	67	82	88	93	56	28
2019-02	Rec	72	81	88	93	85	28
2019-01	Rec	68	82	88	93	66	28

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023