Erie, PA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 21500Compare

Risk Rank: #217 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -11

43score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Erie experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Erie's housing market shows average risk, ranking 217th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and migration. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p99 (highest risk decile)

12-month HPI change

Migration

p67 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordability

p45 (below average risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+21% YoY) and days on market are up -10% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+21.0%p71

Days on Market YoY

-9.8%p30

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.1%p33

Months in status20

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum99

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth8

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita3

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability45

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment35

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration67

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+8.0%	p99
Permit Growth	-29.5%	p8
Permits/1K Pop	0.96	p3
Affordability	0.27	p45
Employment	+0.6%	p35
Net AGI Migration	-$15K	p67

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-29.5%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY+21.0%

Days on Market YoY-9.8%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	54	99	89	44	21	66
2025-09	Rec	55	98	89	44	27	66
2025-08	Ress	55	95	89	44	28	66
2025-06	Exp	55	82	89	38	48	66
2025-04	Exp	55	90	89	38	42	66
2025-01	Exp	54	87	89	34	39	66
2024-12	Rec	54	87	89	31	45	66
2024-10	Rec	55	79	89	31	61	66
2024-07	Exp	50	80	89	36	23	66
2024-05	Exp	58	82	89	32	71	66
2024-04	Rec	58	89	89	32	67	66
2024-02	Rec	50	34	89	26	79	66
2023-12	Exp	51	56	89	27	60	66
2023-10	Exp	59	92	89	27	74	66
2023-07	Rec	62	93	89	31	84	66
2023-05	Rec	53	56	89	25	76	66
2023-03	Exp	59	81	89	31	79	66
2023-01	Exp	57	73	89	31	75	66
2022-12	Rec	47	18	89	26	75	66
2022-10	Rec	47	22	89	26	72	66
2022-09	Exp	50	26	89	28	83	66
2022-07	Exp	46	20	89	28	64	66
2022-05	Hyp	49	38	89	31	62	66
2022-04	Exp	49	40	89	31	61	66
2022-02	Exp	50	39	89	33	68	66
2022-01	Rec	47	36	89	33	50	66
2021-11	Rec	49	24	89	19	86	68
2021-10	Exp	50	24	89	19	90	68
2021-08	Exp	49	27	89	20	84	68
2021-05	Exp	38	20	89	19	25	68
2021-03	Rec	52	38	89	21	89	68
2021-01	Rec	57	67	89	21	88	68
2020-12	Exp	58	78	89	24	89	64
2020-10	Exp	55	66	89	24	80	64
2020-09	Rec	60	93	89	26	81	64
2020-07	Rec	59	88	89	26	78	64
2020-04	Rec	57	62	89	26	93	64
2020-01	Exp	47	16	89	22	82	64
2019-11	Exp	50	24	89	22	80	75
2019-10	Rec	50	23	89	22	82	75
2019-08	Rec	48	13	89	23	78	75
2019-05	Rec	50	17	89	24	86	75
2019-02	Rec	48	10	89	24	82	75
2019-01	Rec	49	11	89	24	86	75

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022