Rankings/El Paso, TX

El Paso, TX

NeutralTier 1CBSA 21340Compare

Risk Rank: #108 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +4

53score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

El Paso experienced a market correction from early 2024 through mid-2024. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 3 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

El Paso's housing market shows average risk, ranking 108th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+11% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and affordability. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p83 (elevated risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordability

p72 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Employment

p62 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking +16% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+10.6%p60

Days on Market YoY

+15.8%p76

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.9%p77

Months in status14

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum28

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth42

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita29

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability72

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment62

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration83

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.1%	p28
Permit Growth	-6.8%	p42
Permits/1K Pop	2.40	p29
Affordability	0.30	p72
Employment	+0.0%	p62
Net AGI Migration	-$69K	p83

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-6.8%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY+10.6%

Days on Market YoY+15.8%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 3 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	55	34	52	72	57	83
2025-09	Hyp	55	42	52	72	47	83
2025-07	Hyp	56	48	52	72	45	83
2025-06	Exp	57	57	52	72	43	83
2025-04	Exp	50	47	52	72	12	83
2025-01	Exp	52	57	52	73	17	83
2024-11	Rec	51	56	52	71	11	83
2024-09	Rec	49	49	52	70	6	83
2024-08	Hyp	48	46	52	70	5	83
2024-06	Hyp	50	54	52	74	4	83
2024-05	Ress	49	50	52	73	5	83
2024-03	Ress	50	59	52	72	4	83
2024-01	Rec	53	71	52	72	8	83
2023-11	Ress	49	49	52	61	15	83
2023-09	Ress	51	62	52	60	16	83
2023-08	Hyp	53	73	52	60	17	83
2023-06	Hyp	57	91	52	61	22	83
2023-03	Ress	58	92	52	61	30	83
2023-01	Ress	58	92	52	61	29	83
2022-10	Ress	60	90	52	71	30	83
2022-07	Ress	57	79	52	67	27	83
2022-06	Hyp	56	71	52	64	33	83
2022-05	Exp	55	65	52	64	31	83
2022-03	Exp	52	39	52	61	47	83
2022-02	Rec	51	34	52	61	42	83
2021-12	Rec	46	23	52	54	39	78
2021-11	Exp	44	29	52	54	19	78
2021-09	Exp	48	21	52	53	51	78
2021-06	Exp	56	35	52	57	84	78
2021-04	Rec	56	41	52	57	78	78
2021-02	Rec	56	68	52	61	46	78
2021-01	Exp	54	58	52	61	45	78
2020-11	Exp	52	29	52	55	63	80
2020-08	Rec	50	54	52	57	27	80
2020-06	Rec	44	25	52	54	24	80
2020-04	Exp	45	22	52	54	32	80
2020-02	Exp	51	43	52	57	40	80
2019-12	Rec	47	27	52	56	31	84
2019-10	Rec	49	41	52	56	29	84
2019-09	Exp	47	32	52	57	23	84
2019-07	Exp	44	17	52	57	21	84
2019-04	Exp	48	42	52	57	24	84
2019-01	Exp	50	36	52	57	42	84

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022