Rankings/Elkhart-Goshen, IN

Elkhart-Goshen, IN

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 21140Compare

Risk Rank: #16 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— 0

66score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Elkhart experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 3 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Elkhart's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 16th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Elevated, driven primarily by price momentum and permit growth. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p91 (highest risk decile)

12-month HPI change

Permit Growth

p90 (highest risk decile)

YoY permit change

Employment

p81 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-8% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-8.0%p40

Days on Market YoY

+1.8%p51

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.7%p54

Months in status8

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum91

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth90

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita34

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability37

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment81

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration60

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+5.5%	p91
Permit Growth	+37.9%	p90
Permits/1K Pop	2.78	p34
Affordability	0.26	p37
Employment	-0.4%	p81
Net AGI Migration	-$3K	p60

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+37.9%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY-8.0%

Days on Market YoY+1.8%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 3 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	62	78	92	36	78	60
2025-09	Ress	58	58	92	36	75	60
2025-08	Hyp	55	59	92	36	57	60
2025-06	Hyp	59	61	92	35	79	60
2025-04	Rec	60	79	92	35	68	60
2025-03	Ress	50	19	92	29	76	60
2025-01	Exp	55	27	92	29	97	60
2024-11	Hyp	67	87	92	37	97	60
2024-10	Rec	67	89	92	37	98	60
2024-08	Hyp	67	88	92	36	99	60
2024-07	Exp	67	87	92	35	100	60
2024-06	Rec	61	54	92	32	100	60
2024-04	Rec	58	34	92	32	100	60
2024-02	Hyp	60	49	92	32	100	60
2024-01	Ress	61	58	92	32	99	60
2023-11	Ress	57	36	92	29	100	60
2023-08	Rec	57	33	92	29	100	60
2023-06	Hyp	62	64	92	33	100	60
2023-04	Ress	64	70	92	33	100	60
2023-02	Ress	58	42	92	31	100	60
2023-01	Hyp	58	40	92	31	100	60
2022-12	Ress	63	59	92	42	100	60
2022-10	Ress	64	62	92	42	99	60
2022-07	Ress	55	58	92	41	54	60
2022-05	Exp	45	39	92	39	16	60
2022-03	Exp	50	50	92	40	35	60
2022-01	Rec	52	53	92	40	44	60
2021-11	Rec	45	45	92	31	5	71
2021-10	Exp	45	43	92	31	9	71
2021-08	Exp	44	42	92	30	5	71
2021-05	Exp	46	50	92	31	9	71
2021-02	Rec	46	54	92	30	2	71
2020-12	Rec	52	78	92	43	3	72
2020-09	Rec	52	67	92	43	12	72
2020-06	Exp	54	34	92	42	58	72
2020-04	Exp	64	56	92	42	100	72
2020-03	Rec	61	37	92	40	99	72
2020-01	Rec	62	40	92	40	100	72
2019-11	Exp	62	48	92	40	100	69
2019-09	Exp	67	75	92	43	99	69
2019-07	Rec	65	63	92	43	100	69
2019-05	Rec	63	52	92	41	100	69
2019-03	Exp	66	73	92	40	99	69
2019-01	Exp	67	81	92	40	96	69

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022