Rankings/El Centro, CA

El Centro, CA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 20940Compare

Risk Rank: #169 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -6

47score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

El Centro's housing market shows average risk, ranking 169th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Recovery underway but inventory still elevated — watch for follow-through. Valuations are also showing some stretch.

El Centro experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is elevated (+19% YoY) and days on market are up +5% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Home prices are outpacing rents (-3.4% rent-price ratio change), indicating some valuation compression.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Recession

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Valuation Lag — Liquidity is improving but rent-price ratios remain compressed.

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and affordability, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump95

12-month HPI change

Affordabilityp95

Mortgage payment / income

Migrationp74

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+19% YoY) and days on market are up +5% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+19.4%p69

Days on Market YoY

+5.3%p59

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Compressed↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

-3.4%p20

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+6.8%p95

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-43.1%p2

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

0.97p4

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.36p95

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.3%p12

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$24Kp74

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-43.1%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Sharp building pullback with softening demand. Mixed signals — builders saw weakness early, but demand hasn't fully deteriorated yet.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 35.2%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Ress	56	97	40	94	25	72
2025-10	Hyp	59	99	40	94	43	72
2025-09	Ress	58	99	40	94	33	72
2025-07	Ress	60	94	40	94	51	72
2025-06	Hyp	59	96	40	93	46	72
2025-04	Ress	61	92	40	93	61	72
2025-02	Ress	61	87	40	91	69	72
2024-11	Exp	55	80	40	88	41	72
2024-09	Hyp	56	99	40	89	28	72
2024-08	Exp	55	96	40	89	24	72
2024-06	Exp	54	98	40	89	18	72
2024-03	Exp	50	67	40	86	24	72
2023-12	Rec	43	32	40	79	28	72
2023-10	Rec	48	60	40	79	28	72
2023-07	Rec	44	39	40	79	27	72
2023-05	Hyp	43	40	40	77	21	72
2023-03	Hyp	48	74	40	80	16	72
2023-01	Ress	44	49	40	80	14	72
2022-11	Ress	37	18	40	76	10	72
2022-08	Ress	41	42	40	80	6	72
2022-05	Exp	37	16	40	78	6	72
2022-03	Exp	42	41	40	81	8	72
2022-01	Rec	41	34	40	81	10	72
2021-11	Rec	44	51	39	84	9	72
2021-09	Exp	45	51	39	83	16	72
2021-07	Exp	46	54	39	83	16	72
2021-04	Exp	60	57	39	86	95	72
2021-03	Rec	60	80	39	88	75	72
2021-01	Rec	59	72	39	88	72	72
2020-11	Exp	56	59	39	89	72	65
2020-09	Exp	56	63	39	89	68	65
2020-08	Rec	55	59	39	89	69	65
2020-06	Rec	56	70	39	89	63	65
2020-03	Rec	51	75	39	89	27	65
2020-02	Exp	47	60	39	89	20	65
2019-12	Exp	43	12	39	88	42	68
2019-10	Rec	40	12	39	88	22	68
2019-08	Rec	48	34	39	89	48	68
2019-05	Rec	43	35	39	88	20	68
2019-02	Rec	47	47	39	90	31	68
2019-01	Rec	48	36	39	90	46	68

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023