Rankings/El Centro, CA

El Centro, CA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 20940Compare

Risk Rank: #193 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↓ -16

45score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

El Centro's housing market shows average risk, ranking 193rd of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

El Centro experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (-1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and migration, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp94

Mortgage payment / income

Migrationp74

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentump54

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-0.6%p48

Days on Market YoY

+23.4%p84

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+6.2%p99

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+1.8%p54

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-28.7%p10

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.00p5

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.37p94

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.5%p31

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$24Kp74

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-28.7%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 35.2%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Rec	47	95	2	95	12	74
2025-11	Ress	56	97	40	94	25	72
2025-10	Hyp	59	99	40	94	43	72
2025-09	Ress	58	99	40	94	33	72
2025-07	Ress	60	94	40	94	51	72
2025-06	Hyp	59	96	40	93	46	72
2025-04	Ress	61	92	40	93	61	72
2025-02	Ress	61	87	40	91	69	72
2024-11	Exp	55	80	40	88	41	72
2024-09	Hyp	56	99	40	89	28	72
2024-08	Exp	55	96	40	89	24	72
2024-06	Exp	54	98	40	89	18	72
2024-03	Exp	50	67	40	86	24	72
2023-12	Rec	43	32	40	79	28	72
2023-10	Rec	48	60	40	79	28	72
2023-07	Rec	44	39	40	79	27	72
2023-05	Hyp	43	40	40	77	21	72
2023-03	Hyp	48	74	40	80	16	72
2023-01	Ress	44	49	40	80	14	72
2022-11	Ress	37	18	40	76	10	72
2022-08	Ress	41	42	40	80	6	72
2022-05	Exp	37	16	40	78	6	72
2022-03	Exp	42	41	40	81	8	72
2022-01	Rec	41	34	40	81	10	72
2021-11	Rec	44	51	39	84	9	72
2021-09	Exp	45	51	39	83	16	72
2021-07	Exp	46	54	39	83	16	72
2021-04	Exp	60	57	39	86	95	72
2021-03	Rec	60	80	39	88	75	72
2021-01	Rec	59	72	39	88	72	72
2020-11	Exp	56	59	39	89	72	65
2020-09	Exp	56	63	39	89	68	65
2020-08	Rec	55	59	39	89	69	65
2020-06	Rec	56	70	39	89	63	65
2020-03	Rec	51	75	39	89	27	65
2020-02	Exp	47	60	39	89	20	65
2019-12	Exp	43	12	39	88	42	68
2019-10	Rec	40	12	39	88	22	68
2019-08	Rec	48	34	39	89	48	68
2019-05	Rec	43	35	39	88	20	68
2019-02	Rec	47	47	39	90	31	68
2019-01	Rec	48	36	39	90	46	68

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023