Rankings/El Centro, CA

El Centro, CA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 20940Compare

Risk Rank: #185 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -15

45score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

El Centro's housing market shows average risk, ranking 185th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

El Centro experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+28% YoY) and days on market are up +3% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and permit growth, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp94

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growthp74

YoY permit change

Migrationp74

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+28% YoY) and days on market are up +3% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+27.8%p78

Days on Market YoY

+3.2%p55

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+7.5%p99

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.3%p17

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+17.1%p74

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.29p8

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.38p94

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+2.2%p5

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$24Kp74

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+17.1%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 35.2%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	45	22	34	94	39	74
2025-12	Rec	47	95	2	95	12	74
2025-11	Ress	56	97	40	94	25	72
2025-10	Hyp	59	99	40	94	43	72
2025-09	Ress	58	99	40	94	33	72
2025-07	Ress	60	94	40	94	51	72
2025-06	Hyp	59	96	40	93	46	72
2025-04	Ress	61	92	40	93	61	72
2025-02	Ress	61	87	40	91	69	72
2024-11	Exp	55	80	40	88	41	72
2024-09	Hyp	56	99	40	89	28	72
2024-08	Exp	55	96	40	89	24	72
2024-06	Exp	54	98	40	89	18	72
2024-03	Exp	50	67	40	86	24	72
2023-12	Rec	43	32	40	79	28	72
2023-10	Rec	48	60	40	79	28	72
2023-07	Rec	44	39	40	79	27	72
2023-05	Hyp	43	40	40	77	21	72
2023-03	Hyp	48	74	40	80	16	72
2023-01	Ress	44	49	40	80	14	72
2022-11	Ress	37	18	40	76	10	72
2022-08	Ress	41	42	40	80	6	72
2022-05	Exp	37	16	40	78	6	72
2022-03	Exp	42	41	40	81	8	72
2022-01	Rec	41	34	40	81	10	72
2021-11	Rec	44	51	39	84	9	72
2021-09	Exp	45	51	39	83	16	72
2021-07	Exp	46	54	39	83	16	72
2021-04	Exp	60	57	39	86	95	72
2021-03	Rec	60	80	39	88	75	72
2021-01	Rec	59	72	39	88	72	72
2020-11	Exp	56	59	39	89	72	65
2020-09	Exp	56	63	39	89	68	65
2020-08	Rec	55	59	39	89	69	65
2020-06	Rec	56	70	39	89	63	65
2020-03	Rec	51	75	39	89	27	65
2020-02	Exp	47	60	39	89	20	65
2019-12	Exp	43	12	39	88	42	68
2019-10	Rec	40	12	39	88	22	68
2019-08	Rec	48	34	39	89	48	68
2019-05	Rec	43	35	39	88	20	68
2019-02	Rec	47	47	39	90	31	68
2019-01	Rec	48	36	39	90	46	68

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023