Rankings/Durham-Chapel Hill, NC

Durham-Chapel Hill, NC

NeutralTier 1CBSA 20500Compare

Risk Rank: #72 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +23

57score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Durham's housing market shows average risk, ranking 72nd of 273 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Durham experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+16% YoY) and days on market are up +5% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and permit growth, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap94

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp92

YoY permit change

Affordabilityp49

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+16% YoY) and days on market are up +5% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+15.5%p66

Days on Market YoY

+5.2%p59

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.7%p73

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.6%p20

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+50.7%p92

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

11.62p94

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.29p49

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.5%p49

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$29Kp40

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+50.7%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Heavy building into softening demand. The construction pipeline may outrun absorption — watch for inventory acceleration in coming months.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 18.9%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Durham's 4 counties show moderate divergence — Orange County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Person County anchors the lower end.

Moderate16.3Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Durham, NC shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Orange County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Person County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Orange CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	24.9%	67	100	100
Durham County	67	Elevated	55.2%	33	67	67
Chatham County	50	Average	13.3%	100	0	33
Person CountyStabilizer	8	Low Risk	6.6%	0	33	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	60	34	71	54	75	40
2025-12	Hyp	47	57	42	54	5	40
2025-10	Hyp	34	32	3	55	7	36
2025-07	Hyp	35	19	3	55	23	36
2025-06	Ress	33	11	3	54	22	36
2025-04	Ress	36	17	3	54	32	36
2025-01	Ress	38	28	3	55	31	36
2024-12	Hyp	39	38	3	58	27	36
2024-10	Ress	39	41	3	58	26	36
2024-08	Ress	46	71	3	61	34	36
2024-07	Hyp	46	77	3	61	24	36
2024-05	Hyp	40	44	3	59	28	36
2024-03	Exp	41	37	3	59	41	36
2024-01	Exp	42	38	3	59	44	36
2023-10	Exp	42	54	3	47	41	36
2023-09	Rec	39	33	3	44	46	36
2023-07	Rec	38	24	3	44	49	36
2023-06	Hyp	44	48	3	49	57	36
2023-04	Ress	42	54	3	49	36	36
2023-02	Ress	46	85	3	47	32	36
2023-01	Hyp	46	92	3	47	27	36
2022-12	Ress	51	87	3	50	55	36
2022-10	Ress	53	87	3	50	69	36
2022-07	Ress	52	95	3	51	53	36
2022-05	Hyp	51	95	3	49	52	36
2022-04	Exp	51	93	3	49	53	36
2022-02	Rec	48	83	3	39	54	36
2021-12	Rec	46	83	3	43	45	31
2021-11	Exp	42	76	3	43	26	31
2021-09	Exp	41	69	3	39	30	31
2021-06	Exp	36	53	3	38	19	31
2021-05	Rec	44	50	3	38	69	31
2021-03	Rec	28	17	3	34	12	31
2021-02	Exp	30	17	3	34	22	31
2020-12	Exp	30	23	3	46	16	23
2020-11	Rec	32	28	3	46	24	23
2020-09	Rec	36	55	3	47	20	23
2020-06	Rec	36	47	3	47	23	23
2020-03	Rec	41	34	3	48	66	23
2019-12	Rec	33	14	3	48	48	15
2019-09	Exp	37	52	3	48	33	15
2019-07	Exp	44	72	3	48	53	15
2019-06	Rec	44	80	3	48	46	15
2019-04	Rec	44	61	3	48	66	15
2019-03	Exp	46	87	3	49	49	15
2019-01	Exp	43	88	3	49	29	15

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023