Rankings/Durham-Chapel Hill, NC

Durham-Chapel Hill, NC

NeutralTier 1CBSA 20500Compare

Risk Rank: #203 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +5

44score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Durham experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 6 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Durham's housing market shows average risk, ranking 203rd of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 6 months. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permits per capita and affordability. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p83 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordability

p56 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growth

p43 (below average risk)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +41% YoY with days on market up +14% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+41.1%p87

Days on Market YoY

+13.6%p73

Months in status12

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.6%p55

Months in status14

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum42

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth43

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita83

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability56

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment5

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration36

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.0%	p42
Permit Growth	-4.4%	p43
Permits/1K Pop	7.81	p83
Affordability	0.28	p56
Employment	+2.0%	p5
Net AGI Migration	+$49K	p36

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-4.4%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are already retreating and demand is weak. A correction may be underway — the market is contracting on both the supply and demand side.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY+41.1%

Days on Market YoY+13.6%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 12 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Durham's 4 counties show moderate divergence — Durham County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Person County anchors the lower end.

Moderate16.8Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Durham, NC shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Durham County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Person County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Durham CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	25.0%	33	100	67
Orange County	56	Elevated	25.0%	67	0	100
Chatham County	55	Average	25.0%	100	33	33
Person CountyStabilizer	22	Low Risk	25.0%	0	67	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	35	37	3	55	5	36
2025-09	Hyp	33	25	3	55	7	36
2025-06	Ress	33	11	3	54	22	36
2025-04	Ress	36	17	3	54	32	36
2025-01	Ress	38	28	3	55	31	36
2024-12	Hyp	39	38	3	58	27	36
2024-10	Ress	39	41	3	58	26	36
2024-08	Ress	46	71	3	61	34	36
2024-07	Hyp	46	77	3	61	24	36
2024-05	Hyp	40	44	3	59	28	36
2024-03	Exp	41	37	3	59	41	36
2024-01	Exp	42	38	3	59	44	36
2023-10	Exp	42	54	3	47	41	36
2023-09	Rec	39	33	3	44	46	36
2023-07	Rec	38	24	3	44	49	36
2023-06	Hyp	44	48	3	49	57	36
2023-04	Ress	42	54	3	49	36	36
2023-02	Ress	46	85	3	47	32	36
2023-01	Hyp	46	92	3	47	27	36
2022-12	Ress	51	87	3	50	55	36
2022-10	Ress	53	87	3	50	69	36
2022-07	Ress	52	95	3	51	53	36
2022-05	Hyp	51	95	3	49	52	36
2022-04	Exp	51	93	3	49	53	36
2022-02	Rec	48	83	3	39	54	36
2021-12	Rec	46	83	3	43	45	31
2021-11	Exp	42	76	3	43	26	31
2021-09	Exp	41	69	3	39	30	31
2021-06	Exp	36	53	3	38	19	31
2021-05	Rec	44	50	3	38	69	31
2021-03	Rec	28	17	3	34	12	31
2021-02	Exp	30	17	3	34	22	31
2020-12	Exp	30	23	3	46	16	23
2020-11	Rec	32	28	3	46	24	23
2020-09	Rec	36	55	3	47	20	23
2020-06	Rec	36	47	3	47	23	23
2020-03	Rec	41	34	3	48	66	23
2019-12	Rec	33	14	3	48	48	15
2019-09	Exp	37	52	3	48	33	15
2019-07	Exp	44	72	3	48	53	15
2019-06	Rec	44	80	3	48	46	15
2019-04	Rec	44	61	3	48	66	15
2019-03	Exp	46	87	3	49	49	15
2019-01	Exp	43	88	3	49	29	15

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022