Rankings/Duluth, MN-WI

Duluth, MN-WI

NeutralTier 1CBSA 20260Compare

Risk Rank: #55 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +1

58score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Duluth experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 2 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Duluth's housing market shows average risk, ranking 55th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+11% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and affordability. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is compressed.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p98 (highest risk decile)

12-month HPI change

Affordability

p97 (highest risk decile)

Mortgage payment / income

Employment

p66 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking -8% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+11.1%p60

Days on Market YoY

-7.8%p33

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Compressed—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-3.8%p17

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum98

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth10

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita27

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability97

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment66

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration47

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+7.8%	p98
Permit Growth	-26.2%	p10
Permits/1K Pop	2.28	p27
Affordability	0.38	p97
Employment	-0.1%	p66
Net AGI Migration	+$20K	p47

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-26.2%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY+11.1%

Days on Market YoY-7.8%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 5 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Duluth's 3 counties show moderate divergence — St. Louis County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Douglas County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.9Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Duluth, MN-WI shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. St. Louis County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by affordability), while Douglas County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
St. Louis CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	33.3%	50	50	100
Carlton County	50	Average	33.3%	0	100	50
Douglas CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	33.3%	100	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	65	100	49	97	61	46
2025-10	Rec	66	99	49	97	69	46
2025-08	Rec	68	99	49	97	76	46
2025-07	Hyp	66	97	49	97	67	46
2025-05	Hyp	67	96	49	96	75	46
2025-03	Rec	64	73	49	94	84	46
2025-02	Ress	64	71	49	94	85	46
2025-01	Hyp	58	70	49	94	52	46
2024-12	Rec	57	51	49	93	67	46
2024-11	Hyp	58	53	49	93	70	46
2024-10	Rec	60	55	49	93	78	46
2024-09	Hyp	58	65	49	94	53	46
2024-07	Hyp	61	49	49	94	90	46
2024-04	Ress	54	62	49	93	39	46
2024-02	Ress	58	57	49	93	64	46
2024-01	Hyp	56	55	49	93	54	46
2023-12	Rec	58	51	49	86	75	46
2023-11	Hyp	58	52	49	86	79	46
2023-09	Exp	65	83	49	88	85	46
2023-07	Exp	61	88	49	88	55	46
2023-05	Rec	57	60	49	85	62	46
2023-03	Rec	58	63	49	85	68	46
2022-12	Ress	63	68	49	86	89	46
2022-11	Hyp	63	63	49	86	95	46
2022-10	Exp	62	58	49	86	94	46
2022-08	Exp	56	26	49	82	92	46
2022-05	Exp	60	43	49	85	96	46
2022-02	Exp	53	19	49	83	83	46
2022-01	Rec	53	23	49	83	78	46
2021-11	Rec	52	35	49	78	70	45
2021-10	Exp	53	35	49	78	76	45
2021-08	Exp	54	38	49	80	74	45
2021-05	Rec	46	43	49	80	24	45
2021-03	Rec	54	34	49	81	79	45
2021-02	Exp	55	35	49	81	81	45
2020-12	Exp	58	36	49	84	86	57
2020-11	Rec	55	28	49	84	73	57
2020-09	Rec	58	45	49	86	71	57
2020-06	Rec	58	32	49	85	86	57
2020-05	Exp	58	34	49	85	85	57
2020-03	Exp	59	38	49	85	86	57
2020-02	Rec	60	44	49	85	86	57
2019-12	Rec	61	59	49	87	83	50
2019-11	Exp	59	48	49	87	83	50
2019-09	Exp	56	24	49	87	91	50
2019-08	Rec	56	22	49	87	93	50
2019-06	Rec	56	26	49	87	85	50
2019-05	Exp	56	30	49	87	86	50
2019-03	Exp	56	26	49	86	90	50
2019-01	Exp	58	32	49	86	91	50

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022