Rankings/Duluth, MN-WI

Duluth, MN-WI

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 20260Compare

Risk Rank: #27 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -5

63score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Duluth's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 27th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Duluth experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+21% YoY) and days on market are up +4% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and permit growth, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp97

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growthp88

YoY permit change

Employmentp73

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+21% YoY) and days on market are up +4% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+21.0%p71

Days on Market YoY

+4.0%p56

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.4%p82

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.9%p40

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+39.6%p88

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.83p33

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.40p97

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.2%p73

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$12Kp46

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+39.6%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Heavy building into softening demand. The construction pipeline may outrun absorption — watch for inventory acceleration in coming months.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 25%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Duluth's counties diverge significantly — Carlton County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Douglas County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High20.4Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Duluth, MN-WI shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Carlton County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Douglas County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Carlton CountyRisk Driver	88	High Risk	13.0%	100	100	50
St. Louis County	50	Average	71.3%	50	0	100
Douglas CountyStabilizer	12	Low Risk	15.8%	0	50	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	46	11	15	96	80	46
2026-05	Hyp	48	29	11	97	85	46
2025-12	Exp	56	91	11	97	66	46
2025-10	Rec	66	99	49	97	69	46
2025-08	Rec	68	99	49	97	76	46
2025-07	Hyp	66	97	49	97	67	46
2025-05	Hyp	67	96	49	96	75	46
2025-03	Rec	64	73	49	94	84	46
2025-02	Ress	64	71	49	94	85	46
2025-01	Hyp	58	70	49	94	52	46
2024-12	Rec	57	51	49	93	67	46
2024-11	Hyp	58	53	49	93	70	46
2024-10	Rec	60	55	49	93	78	46
2024-09	Hyp	58	65	49	94	53	46
2024-07	Hyp	61	49	49	94	90	46
2024-04	Ress	54	62	49	93	39	46
2024-02	Ress	58	57	49	93	64	46
2024-01	Hyp	56	55	49	93	54	46
2023-12	Rec	58	51	49	86	75	46
2023-11	Hyp	58	52	49	86	79	46
2023-09	Exp	65	83	49	88	85	46
2023-07	Exp	61	88	49	88	55	46
2023-05	Rec	57	60	49	85	62	46
2023-03	Rec	58	63	49	85	68	46
2022-12	Ress	63	68	49	86	89	46
2022-11	Hyp	63	63	49	86	95	46
2022-10	Exp	62	58	49	86	94	46
2022-08	Exp	56	26	49	82	92	46
2022-05	Exp	60	43	49	85	96	46
2022-02	Exp	53	19	49	83	83	46
2022-01	Rec	53	23	49	83	78	46
2021-11	Rec	52	35	49	78	70	45
2021-10	Exp	53	35	49	78	76	45
2021-08	Exp	54	38	49	80	74	45
2021-05	Rec	46	43	49	80	24	45
2021-03	Rec	54	34	49	81	79	45
2021-02	Exp	55	35	49	81	81	45
2020-12	Exp	58	36	49	84	86	57
2020-11	Rec	55	28	49	84	73	57
2020-09	Rec	58	45	49	86	71	57
2020-06	Rec	58	32	49	85	86	57
2020-05	Exp	58	34	49	85	85	57
2020-03	Exp	59	38	49	85	86	57
2020-02	Rec	60	44	49	85	86	57
2019-12	Rec	61	59	49	87	83	50
2019-11	Exp	59	48	49	87	83	50
2019-09	Exp	56	24	49	87	91	50
2019-08	Rec	56	22	49	87	93	50
2019-06	Rec	56	26	49	87	85	50
2019-05	Exp	56	30	49	87	86	50
2019-03	Exp	56	26	49	86	90	50
2019-01	Exp	58	32	49	86	91	50

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023