Rankings/Duluth, MN-WI

Duluth, MN-WI

NeutralTier 1CBSA 20260Compare

Risk Rank: #175 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↓ -21

46score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Duluth's housing market shows average risk, ranking 175th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+12% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Duluth experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +12% pace with homes taking +17% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Hypersupply

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and employment, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp96

Mortgage payment / income

Employmentp80

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migrationp46

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +12% pace with homes taking +17% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+11.9%p61

Days on Market YoY

+16.7%p77

Months in status1

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+3.9%p95

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

-0.0%p11

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-22.7%p15

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.34p25

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.39p96

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.3%p80

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$12Kp46

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-22.7%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 25%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Duluth's counties diverge significantly — Carlton County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Douglas County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High20.4Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Duluth, MN-WI shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Carlton County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Douglas County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Carlton CountyRisk Driver	88	High Risk	13.0%	100	100	50
St. Louis County	50	Average	71.3%	50	0	100
Douglas CountyStabilizer	12	Low Risk	15.8%	0	50	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Hyp	48	29	11	97	85	46
2025-12	Exp	56	91	11	97	66	46
2025-10	Rec	66	99	49	97	69	46
2025-08	Rec	68	99	49	97	76	46
2025-07	Hyp	66	97	49	97	67	46
2025-05	Hyp	67	96	49	96	75	46
2025-03	Rec	64	73	49	94	84	46
2025-02	Ress	64	71	49	94	85	46
2025-01	Hyp	58	70	49	94	52	46
2024-12	Rec	57	51	49	93	67	46
2024-11	Hyp	58	53	49	93	70	46
2024-10	Rec	60	55	49	93	78	46
2024-09	Hyp	58	65	49	94	53	46
2024-07	Hyp	61	49	49	94	90	46
2024-04	Ress	54	62	49	93	39	46
2024-02	Ress	58	57	49	93	64	46
2024-01	Hyp	56	55	49	93	54	46
2023-12	Rec	58	51	49	86	75	46
2023-11	Hyp	58	52	49	86	79	46
2023-09	Exp	65	83	49	88	85	46
2023-07	Exp	61	88	49	88	55	46
2023-05	Rec	57	60	49	85	62	46
2023-03	Rec	58	63	49	85	68	46
2022-12	Ress	63	68	49	86	89	46
2022-11	Hyp	63	63	49	86	95	46
2022-10	Exp	62	58	49	86	94	46
2022-08	Exp	56	26	49	82	92	46
2022-05	Exp	60	43	49	85	96	46
2022-02	Exp	53	19	49	83	83	46
2022-01	Rec	53	23	49	83	78	46
2021-11	Rec	52	35	49	78	70	45
2021-10	Exp	53	35	49	78	76	45
2021-08	Exp	54	38	49	80	74	45
2021-05	Rec	46	43	49	80	24	45
2021-03	Rec	54	34	49	81	79	45
2021-02	Exp	55	35	49	81	81	45
2020-12	Exp	58	36	49	84	86	57
2020-11	Rec	55	28	49	84	73	57
2020-09	Rec	58	45	49	86	71	57
2020-06	Rec	58	32	49	85	86	57
2020-05	Exp	58	34	49	85	85	57
2020-03	Exp	59	38	49	85	86	57
2020-02	Rec	60	44	49	85	86	57
2019-12	Rec	61	59	49	87	83	50
2019-11	Exp	59	48	49	87	83	50
2019-09	Exp	56	24	49	87	91	50
2019-08	Rec	56	22	49	87	93	50
2019-06	Rec	56	26	49	87	85	50
2019-05	Exp	56	30	49	87	86	50
2019-03	Exp	56	26	49	86	90	50
2019-01	Exp	58	32	49	86	91	50

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023