Dover, DE

NeutralTier 1CBSA 20100Compare

Risk Rank: #212 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -2

42score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Dover's housing market shows average risk, ranking 212th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Dover experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is declining (-5% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

3 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and permit growth, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap75

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp59

YoY permit change

Price Momentump38

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-5% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-5.5%p43

Days on Market YoY

+37.0%p91

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.4%p71

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+2.3%p38

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

+3.8%p59

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

6.77p75

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.23p13

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.5%p38

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$51Kp30

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+3.8%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 27.7%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	58	100	60	20	67	33
2025-09	Hyp	59	100	60	20	68	33
2025-08	Rec	61	100	60	20	82	33
2025-07	Ress	59	99	60	20	71	33
2025-05	Hyp	44	24	60	10	66	33
2025-03	Ress	54	71	60	17	69	33
2025-01	Ress	43	23	60	17	55	33
2024-12	Hyp	44	2	60	11	85	33
2024-10	Rec	44	8	60	11	79	33
2024-09	Hyp	43	36	60	13	46	33
2024-08	Ress	39	45	60	13	12	33
2024-06	Ress	51	52	60	13	79	33
2024-03	Hyp	59	99	60	20	73	33
2024-02	Exp	59	97	60	20	72	33
2023-12	Exp	44	52	60	22	25	33
2023-09	Exp	42	20	60	21	47	33
2023-08	Rec	44	26	60	21	51	33
2023-06	Rec	40	28	60	19	31	33
2023-04	Hyp	48	37	60	19	69	33
2023-03	Ress	46	40	60	22	47	33
2023-01	Ress	46	29	60	22	58	33
2022-10	Rec	56	64	60	22	87	33
2022-09	Ress	49	57	60	20	52	33
2022-07	Rec	56	69	60	20	79	33
2022-06	Ress	52	44	60	19	81	33
2022-04	Rec	47	37	60	19	62	33
2022-03	Exp	51	62	60	21	56	33
2022-01	Exp	52	55	60	21	68	33
2021-10	Exp	56	61	60	28	77	34
2021-07	Exp	48	26	60	24	69	34
2021-04	Rec	46	46	60	25	38	34
2021-02	Rec	52	74	60	27	41	34
2021-01	Exp	52	75	60	27	40	34
2020-11	Exp	46	53	60	31	20	36
2020-10	Rec	46	53	60	31	21	36
2020-08	Rec	50	78	60	36	19	36
2020-05	Rec	52	53	60	32	61	36
2020-02	Exp	57	81	60	33	60	36
2019-12	Exp	53	78	60	31	43	32
2019-10	Rec	45	44	60	31	31	32
2019-08	Rec	48	60	60	34	28	32
2019-06	Exp	49	21	60	32	77	32
2019-04	Exp	46	19	60	32	60	32
2019-03	Rec	40	2	60	27	44	32
2019-01	Rec	40	2	60	27	48	32

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023