Dover, DE

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 20100Compare

Risk Rank: #13 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↑ +22

66score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Dover's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 13th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Dover experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +6% pace with homes taking +32% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and permit growth, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump99

12-month HPI change

Permit Growthp84

YoY permit change

Permits per Capitap82

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +6% pace with homes taking +32% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+5.6%p54

Days on Market YoY

+31.6%p89

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.5%p28

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+6.1%p99

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+26.5%p84

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

7.71p82

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.25p19

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.8%p82

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$51Kp30

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+26.5%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 27.7%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Rec	42	38	59	13	38	30
2025-10	Rec	58	100	60	20	63	33
2025-09	Hyp	59	100	60	20	68	33
2025-08	Rec	61	100	60	20	82	33
2025-07	Ress	59	99	60	20	71	33
2025-05	Hyp	44	24	60	10	66	33
2025-03	Ress	54	71	60	17	69	33
2025-01	Ress	43	23	60	17	55	33
2024-12	Hyp	44	2	60	11	85	33
2024-10	Rec	44	8	60	11	79	33
2024-09	Hyp	43	36	60	13	46	33
2024-08	Ress	39	45	60	13	12	33
2024-06	Ress	51	52	60	13	79	33
2024-03	Hyp	59	99	60	20	73	33
2024-02	Exp	59	97	60	20	72	33
2023-12	Exp	44	52	60	22	25	33
2023-09	Exp	42	20	60	21	47	33
2023-08	Rec	44	26	60	21	51	33
2023-06	Rec	40	28	60	19	31	33
2023-04	Hyp	48	37	60	19	69	33
2023-03	Ress	46	40	60	22	47	33
2023-01	Ress	46	29	60	22	58	33
2022-10	Rec	56	64	60	22	87	33
2022-09	Ress	49	57	60	20	52	33
2022-07	Rec	56	69	60	20	79	33
2022-06	Ress	52	44	60	19	81	33
2022-04	Rec	47	37	60	19	62	33
2022-03	Exp	51	62	60	21	56	33
2022-01	Exp	52	55	60	21	68	33
2021-10	Exp	56	61	60	28	77	34
2021-07	Exp	48	26	60	24	69	34
2021-04	Rec	46	46	60	25	38	34
2021-02	Rec	52	74	60	27	41	34
2021-01	Exp	52	75	60	27	40	34
2020-11	Exp	46	53	60	31	20	36
2020-10	Rec	46	53	60	31	21	36
2020-08	Rec	50	78	60	36	19	36
2020-05	Rec	52	53	60	32	61	36
2020-02	Exp	57	81	60	33	60	36
2019-12	Exp	53	78	60	31	43	32
2019-10	Rec	45	44	60	31	31	32
2019-08	Rec	48	60	60	34	28	32
2019-06	Exp	49	21	60	32	77	32
2019-04	Exp	46	19	60	32	60	32
2019-03	Rec	40	2	60	27	44	32
2019-01	Rec	40	2	60	27	48	32

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023