Dothan, AL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 20020Compare

Risk Rank: #38 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):— -3

60score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Dothan's housing market shows average risk, ranking 38th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+13% YoY) with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Dothan has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking +15% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and permit growth, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump76

12-month HPI change

Permit Growthp73

YoY permit change

Employmentp61

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking +15% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+12.7%p62

Days on Market YoY

+15.4%p75

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.4%p58

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+2.3%p76

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+16.0%p73

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.99p49

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.28p43

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

+0.2%p61

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

-$2Kp58

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+16.0%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 32.8%

7 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Dothan's counties diverge significantly — Henry County (Elevated) contrasts sharply with Geneva County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High28.6Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Dothan, AL shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Henry County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Geneva County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Henry CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	11.6%	50	100	50
Houston County	75	Elevated	70.8%	100	50	100
Geneva CountyStabilizer	0	Low Risk	17.6%	0	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Exp	56	50	68	43	73	58
2025-12	Rec	57	100	39	39	62	58
2025-11	Exp	58	98	76	37	40	55
2025-09	Exp	55	70	76	37	46	55
2025-06	Exp	63	93	76	46	64	55
2025-03	Exp	41	0	76	19	52	55
2024-12	Exp	49	4	76	33	82	55
2024-09	Exp	58	42	76	40	89	55
2024-06	Exp	51	26	76	37	66	55
2024-03	Exp	67	98	76	44	85	55
2023-12	Exp	62	90	76	42	63	55
2023-09	Exp	60	100	76	42	43	55
2023-06	Exp	54	74	76	32	39	55
2023-03	Exp	53	56	76	34	51	55
2022-12	Exp	45	31	76	23	42	55
2022-09	Exp	46	5	76	21	71	55
2022-06	Exp	46	23	76	22	56	55
2022-03	Exp	50	27	76	23	72	55
2021-12	Exp	62	39	77	52	98	62
2021-09	Exp	52	10	77	50	67	62
2021-06	Exp	56	8	77	50	93	62
2021-03	Exp	43	3	77	53	18	62
2021-02	Rec	43	6	77	53	14	62
2020-12	Rec	40	16	77	34	11	57
2020-11	Exp	39	11	77	34	11	57
2020-09	Exp	40	6	77	35	18	57
2020-07	Rec	41	17	77	35	15	57
2020-05	Rec	55	91	77	44	14	57
2020-04	Exp	54	91	77	44	12	57
2020-02	Exp	47	11	77	38	55	57
2019-11	Exp	52	69	77	43	27	51
2019-08	Exp	46	29	77	41	35	51
2019-05	Rec	42	8	77	37	32	51
2019-03	Rec	43	30	77	45	11	51
2019-01	Rec	45	10	77	45	41	51

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023