Dothan, AL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 20020Compare

Risk Rank: #65 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +8

57score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Dothan's housing market shows average risk, ranking 65th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers. Valuations are also showing some stretch.

Dothan has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Recovery.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +7% pace with homes taking +31% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Home prices are outpacing rents (-7.4% rent-price ratio change), indicating some valuation compression.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Expansion

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Valuation Lag — Liquidity is improving but rent-price ratios remain compressed.

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and employment, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump100

12-month HPI change

Employmentp62

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migrationp58

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +7% pace with homes taking +31% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+7.4%p56

Days on Market YoY

+31.0%p89

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Compressed↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

-7.5%p3

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+11.4%p100

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-7.5%p39

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.54p45

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.27p39

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

+0.0%p62

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$4Kp58

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-7.5%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 32.8%

7 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Dothan's counties diverge significantly — Henry County (Elevated) contrasts sharply with Geneva County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High28.6Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Dothan, AL shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Henry County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Geneva County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Henry CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	11.6%	100	100	50
Houston County	75	Elevated	70.8%	50	50	100
Geneva CountyStabilizer	0	Low Risk	17.6%	0	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	58	98	76	37	40	55
2025-09	Exp	55	70	76	37	46	55
2025-06	Exp	63	93	76	46	64	55
2025-03	Exp	41	0	76	19	52	55
2024-12	Exp	49	4	76	33	82	55
2024-09	Exp	58	42	76	40	89	55
2024-06	Exp	51	26	76	37	66	55
2024-03	Exp	67	98	76	44	85	55
2023-12	Exp	62	90	76	42	63	55
2023-09	Exp	60	100	76	42	43	55
2023-06	Exp	54	74	76	32	39	55
2023-03	Exp	53	56	76	34	51	55
2022-12	Exp	45	31	76	23	42	55
2022-09	Exp	46	5	76	21	71	55
2022-06	Exp	46	23	76	22	56	55
2022-03	Exp	50	27	76	23	72	55
2021-12	Exp	62	39	77	52	98	62
2021-09	Exp	52	10	77	50	67	62
2021-06	Exp	56	8	77	50	93	62
2021-03	Exp	43	3	77	53	18	62
2021-02	Rec	43	6	77	53	14	62
2020-12	Rec	40	16	77	34	11	57
2020-11	Exp	39	11	77	34	11	57
2020-09	Exp	40	6	77	35	18	57
2020-07	Rec	41	17	77	35	15	57
2020-05	Rec	55	91	77	44	14	57
2020-04	Exp	54	91	77	44	12	57
2020-02	Exp	47	11	77	38	55	57
2019-11	Exp	52	69	77	43	27	51
2019-08	Exp	46	29	77	41	35	51
2019-05	Rec	42	8	77	37	32	51
2019-03	Rec	43	30	77	45	11	51
2019-01	Rec	45	10	77	45	41	51

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022