Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
Cycle Phase
Detroit experienced a market correction from late 2022 through early 2023. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.
Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption
Detroit's housing market shows average risk, ranking 49th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.
Executive Summary
Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and permit growth. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.
Top Risk Drivers (This Month)
Market Signals
Inventory is elevated (+21% YoY) and days on market are up +8% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.
Liquidity
Valuation
Factor Details
Factor Breakdown
12-month HPI change — higher = overheating
YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure
Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk
Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
Underlying Values
| Metric | Value | Pctile |
|---|---|---|
| Price Momentum | +4.1% | p79 |
| Permit Growth | +23.2% | p84 |
| Permits/1K Pop | 2.07 | p21 |
| Affordability | 0.23 | p13 |
| Employment | +0.0% | p60 |
| Net AGI Migration | -$1M | p97 |
National ContextDoes not affect score
Credit Conditions
Credit Regime
Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.
Supply Pipeline
Supply Regime
Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.
Local SignalsDoes not affect score
Metro Permit Activity
Permit Activity
ElevatedRaw signal — not the composite percentile
Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro
Building is elevated but demand is cooling. Early warning of supply-demand imbalance — if liquidity continues to soften, this pipeline could become a problem.
Liquidity
Liquidity
Internal Structure
Detroit's 6 counties show moderate divergence — Oakland County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Livingston County anchors the lower end.
Detroit, MI shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Oakland County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by affordability), while Livingston County anchors the lower end (Below Average).
| County | Score ▼ |
|---|---|
Oakland CountyRisk Driver | 67 |
Wayne County | 60 |
St. Clair County | 53 |
Lapeer County | 47 |
Macomb County | 47 |
Livingston CountyStabilizer | 27 |
Score History
| Month | Score |
|---|---|
| 2025-11 | 58 |
| 2025-09 | 56 |
| 2025-07 | 52 |
| 2025-05 | 54 |
| 2025-03 | 53 |
| 2025-01 | 59 |
| 2024-10 | 51 |
| 2024-09 | 58 |
| 2024-08 | 58 |
| 2024-06 | 59 |
| 2024-03 | 54 |
| 2023-12 | 55 |
| 2023-09 | 50 |
| 2023-08 | 51 |
| 2023-06 | 49 |
| 2023-04 | 48 |
| 2023-02 | 46 |
| 2022-12 | 44 |
| 2022-10 | 44 |
| 2022-08 | 40 |
| 2022-06 | 39 |
| 2022-04 | 38 |
| 2022-03 | 42 |
| 2022-01 | 40 |
| 2021-12 | 39 |
| 2021-10 | 42 |
| 2021-07 | 45 |
| 2021-05 | 39 |
| 2021-03 | 52 |
| 2021-02 | 53 |
| 2020-12 | 56 |
| 2020-11 | 55 |
| 2020-09 | 55 |
| 2020-06 | 54 |
| 2020-03 | 51 |
| 2019-12 | 52 |
| 2019-10 | 54 |
| 2019-09 | 52 |
| 2019-07 | 52 |
| 2019-04 | 52 |
| 2019-03 | 52 |
| 2019-01 | 53 |