Rankings/Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA

Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 19780Compare

Risk Rank: #94 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +2

54score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Des Moines experienced a market correction from late 2022 through early 2023. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 3 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Des Moines's housing market shows average risk, ranking 94th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+14% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permits per capita and permit growth. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p86 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growth

p80 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Migration

p58 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking -1% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+14.0%p64

Days on Market YoY

-1.4%p45

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.5%p57

Months in status36

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum47

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth80

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita86

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability6

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment49

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration58

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.3%	p47
Permit Growth	+18.8%	p80
Permits/1K Pop	8.21	p86
Affordability	0.20	p6
Employment	+0.3%	p49
Net AGI Migration	+$341	p58

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+18.8%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+14.0%

Days on Market YoY-1.4%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Des Moines's 6 counties show moderate divergence — Madison County carries the most risk (High Risk) while Jasper County anchors the lower end.

Moderate17.5

6 of 6 counties scored

Des Moines, IA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Madison County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Jasper County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Madison CountyRisk Driver	80	High Risk	16.7%	100	100	40
Warren County	60	Elevated	16.7%	40	60	80
Guthrie County	53	Average	16.7%	80	80	0
Polk County	47	Average	16.7%	20	20	100
Dallas County	33	Below Average	16.7%	0	40	60
Jasper CountyStabilizer	27	Below Average	16.7%	60	0	20

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	45	39	47	5	43	58
2025-09	Hyp	43	27	47	5	46	58
2025-07	Rec	50	20	47	5	94	58
2025-06	Hyp	51	26	47	6	92	58
2025-04	Hyp	53	35	47	6	97	58
2025-01	Hyp	48	28	47	4	78	58
2024-10	Hyp	50	29	47	6	85	58
2024-09	Rec	50	43	47	6	69	58
2024-07	Rec	47	44	47	6	51	58
2024-06	Hyp	43	36	47	5	35	58
2024-04	Hyp	42	45	47	5	21	58
2024-03	Exp	41	41	47	6	17	58
2024-01	Exp	43	34	47	6	35	58
2023-11	Rec	41	42	47	6	18	58
2023-09	Rec	41	44	47	6	17	58
2023-06	Hyp	42	46	47	6	22	58
2023-04	Hyp	41	40	47	6	18	58
2023-03	Ress	46	51	47	6	38	58
2023-01	Ress	44	56	47	6	24	58
2022-10	Ress	47	53	47	7	40	58
2022-09	Hyp	47	39	47	7	53	58
2022-07	Hyp	46	31	47	7	60	58
2022-06	Exp	45	29	47	8	50	58
2022-04	Rec	45	24	47	8	58	58
2022-02	Rec	43	19	47	7	53	58
2022-01	Exp	45	20	47	7	63	58
2021-11	Exp	37	14	47	7	47	30
2021-08	Exp	34	14	47	7	27	30
2021-05	Exp	36	14	47	8	39	30
2021-04	Rec	39	14	47	8	57	30
2021-02	Rec	33	8	47	7	32	30
2021-01	Exp	34	9	47	7	32	30
2020-11	Exp	35	7	47	6	39	33
2020-10	Rec	35	7	47	6	41	33
2020-08	Rec	37	5	47	7	53	33
2020-05	Rec	36	7	47	8	47	33
2020-04	Exp	34	7	47	8	36	33
2020-02	Exp	35	6	47	8	40	33
2019-11	Exp	35	9	47	9	38	30
2019-09	Rec	37	12	47	9	47	30
2019-07	Rec	41	13	47	9	72	30
2019-06	Exp	41	18	47	9	64	30
2019-04	Exp	39	16	47	9	53	30
2019-01	Exp	44	33	47	9	65	30

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022