Rankings/Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA

Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 19780Compare

Risk Rank: #257 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↓ -19

33score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Des Moines's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 257th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Des Moines experienced a market correction from late 2022 through early 2023. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and employment, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap75

Permits per 1,000 residents

Employmentp52

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migrationp25

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+3.3%p52

Days on Market YoY

+6.0%p60

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.3%p81

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.7%p20

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-17.8%p22

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

6.67p75

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.21p4

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.1%p52

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$77Kp25

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-17.8%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 19.9%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Des Moines's counties diverge significantly — Polk County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Jasper County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High20.9Limited data

6 of 6 counties scored

Des Moines, IA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Polk County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Jasper County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Polk CountyRisk Driver	95	High Risk	68.8%	100	80	100
Warren County	60	Elevated	7.4%	40	40	80
Dallas County	50	Average	14.8%	60	20	60
Guthrie County<5%	40	Below Average	1.5%	80	60	0
Jasper CountyStabilizer	35	Below Average	5.2%	20	100	20
Madison County<5%	20	Low Risk	2.3%	0	0	40

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Rec	50	52	81	5	50	25
2025-10	Rec	44	35	47	5	43	58
2025-09	Hyp	43	27	47	5	46	58
2025-07	Rec	50	20	47	5	94	58
2025-06	Hyp	51	26	47	6	92	58
2025-04	Hyp	53	35	47	6	97	58
2025-01	Hyp	48	28	47	4	78	58
2024-10	Hyp	50	29	47	6	85	58
2024-09	Rec	50	43	47	6	69	58
2024-07	Rec	47	44	47	6	51	58
2024-06	Hyp	43	36	47	5	35	58
2024-04	Hyp	42	45	47	5	21	58
2024-03	Exp	41	41	47	6	17	58
2024-01	Exp	43	34	47	6	35	58
2023-11	Rec	41	42	47	6	18	58
2023-09	Rec	41	44	47	6	17	58
2023-06	Hyp	42	46	47	6	22	58
2023-04	Hyp	41	40	47	6	18	58
2023-03	Ress	46	51	47	6	38	58
2023-01	Ress	44	56	47	6	24	58
2022-10	Ress	47	53	47	7	40	58
2022-09	Hyp	47	39	47	7	53	58
2022-07	Hyp	46	31	47	7	60	58
2022-06	Exp	45	29	47	8	50	58
2022-04	Rec	45	24	47	8	58	58
2022-02	Rec	43	19	47	7	53	58
2022-01	Exp	45	20	47	7	63	58
2021-11	Exp	37	14	47	7	47	30
2021-08	Exp	34	14	47	7	27	30
2021-05	Exp	36	14	47	8	39	30
2021-04	Rec	39	14	47	8	57	30
2021-02	Rec	33	8	47	7	32	30
2021-01	Exp	34	9	47	7	32	30
2020-11	Exp	35	7	47	6	39	33
2020-10	Rec	35	7	47	6	41	33
2020-08	Rec	37	5	47	7	53	33
2020-05	Rec	36	7	47	8	47	33
2020-04	Exp	34	7	47	8	36	33
2020-02	Exp	35	6	47	8	40	33
2019-11	Exp	35	9	47	9	38	30
2019-09	Rec	37	12	47	9	47	30
2019-07	Rec	41	13	47	9	72	30
2019-06	Exp	41	18	47	9	64	30
2019-04	Exp	39	16	47	9	53	30
2019-01	Exp	44	33	47	9	65	30

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023