Rankings/Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA

Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 19780Compare

Risk Rank: #69 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +4

56score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Des Moines's housing market shows average risk, ranking 69th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+14% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Des Moines experienced a market correction from late 2022 through early 2023. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking -1% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

3 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and permit growth, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap85

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp81

YoY permit change

Migrationp60

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking -1% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+14.0%p64

Days on Market YoY

-1.4%p45

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.4%p43

Months in status36

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+3.2%p52

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+18.8%p81

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

8.21p85

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.21p5

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.3%p50

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$341p60

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+18.8%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 19.9%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Des Moines's 6 counties show moderate divergence — Warren County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Jasper County anchors the lower end.

Moderate8.2Limited data

6 of 6 counties scored

Des Moines, IA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Warren County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Jasper County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Madison County<5%	75	Elevated	2.3%	100	100	40
Warren CountyRisk Driver	65	Elevated	7.4%	40	60	80
Dallas County	50	Average	14.8%	0	40	60
Guthrie County<5%	45	Below Average	1.5%	80	80	0
Polk County	45	Below Average	68.8%	20	20	100
Jasper CountyStabilizer	20	Low Risk	5.2%	60	0	20

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	45	39	47	5	43	58
2025-09	Hyp	43	27	47	5	46	58
2025-07	Rec	50	20	47	5	94	58
2025-06	Hyp	51	26	47	6	92	58
2025-04	Hyp	53	35	47	6	97	58
2025-01	Hyp	48	28	47	4	78	58
2024-10	Hyp	50	29	47	6	85	58
2024-09	Rec	50	43	47	6	69	58
2024-07	Rec	47	44	47	6	51	58
2024-06	Hyp	43	36	47	5	35	58
2024-04	Hyp	42	45	47	5	21	58
2024-03	Exp	41	41	47	6	17	58
2024-01	Exp	43	34	47	6	35	58
2023-11	Rec	41	42	47	6	18	58
2023-09	Rec	41	44	47	6	17	58
2023-06	Hyp	42	46	47	6	22	58
2023-04	Hyp	41	40	47	6	18	58
2023-03	Ress	46	51	47	6	38	58
2023-01	Ress	44	56	47	6	24	58
2022-10	Ress	47	53	47	7	40	58
2022-09	Hyp	47	39	47	7	53	58
2022-07	Hyp	46	31	47	7	60	58
2022-06	Exp	45	29	47	8	50	58
2022-04	Rec	45	24	47	8	58	58
2022-02	Rec	43	19	47	7	53	58
2022-01	Exp	45	20	47	7	63	58
2021-11	Exp	37	14	47	7	47	30
2021-08	Exp	34	14	47	7	27	30
2021-05	Exp	36	14	47	8	39	30
2021-04	Rec	39	14	47	8	57	30
2021-02	Rec	33	8	47	7	32	30
2021-01	Exp	34	9	47	7	32	30
2020-11	Exp	35	7	47	6	39	33
2020-10	Rec	35	7	47	6	41	33
2020-08	Rec	37	5	47	7	53	33
2020-05	Rec	36	7	47	8	47	33
2020-04	Exp	34	7	47	8	36	33
2020-02	Exp	35	6	47	8	40	33
2019-11	Exp	35	9	47	9	38	30
2019-09	Rec	37	12	47	9	47	30
2019-07	Rec	41	13	47	9	72	30
2019-06	Exp	41	18	47	9	64	30
2019-04	Exp	39	16	47	9	53	30
2019-01	Exp	44	33	47	9	65	30

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022