Rankings/Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA

Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 19780Compare

Risk Rank: #210 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -6

42score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Des Moines's housing market shows average risk, ranking 210th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Des Moines experienced a market correction from late 2022 through early 2023. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking +7% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and permits per capita, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp78

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap76

Permits per 1,000 residents

Price Momentump40

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking +7% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+9.6%p59

Days on Market YoY

+6.6%p61

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.1%p62

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.9%p40

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-11.4%p27

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

7.04p76

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.22p5

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.5%p78

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$77Kp25

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-11.4%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 19.9%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Des Moines's counties diverge significantly — Polk County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Jasper County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High20.9Limited data

6 of 6 counties scored

Des Moines, IA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Polk County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Jasper County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Polk CountyRisk Driver	95	High Risk	68.8%	100	80	100
Warren County	60	Elevated	7.4%	40	40	80
Dallas County	50	Average	14.8%	60	20	60
Guthrie County<5%	40	Below Average	1.5%	80	60	0
Jasper CountyStabilizer	35	Below Average	5.2%	20	100	20
Madison County<5%	20	Low Risk	2.3%	0	0	40

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	31	19	10	4	54	25
2025-12	Rec	50	52	81	5	50	25
2025-09	Hyp	43	27	47	5	46	58
2025-07	Rec	50	20	47	5	94	58
2025-06	Hyp	51	26	47	6	92	58
2025-04	Hyp	53	35	47	6	97	58
2025-01	Hyp	48	28	47	4	78	58
2024-10	Hyp	50	29	47	6	85	58
2024-09	Rec	50	43	47	6	69	58
2024-07	Rec	47	44	47	6	51	58
2024-06	Hyp	43	36	47	5	35	58
2024-04	Hyp	42	45	47	5	21	58
2024-03	Exp	41	41	47	6	17	58
2024-01	Exp	43	34	47	6	35	58
2023-11	Rec	41	42	47	6	18	58
2023-09	Rec	41	44	47	6	17	58
2023-06	Hyp	42	46	47	6	22	58
2023-04	Hyp	41	40	47	6	18	58
2023-03	Ress	46	51	47	6	38	58
2023-01	Ress	44	56	47	6	24	58
2022-10	Ress	47	53	47	7	40	58
2022-09	Hyp	47	39	47	7	53	58
2022-07	Hyp	46	31	47	7	60	58
2022-06	Exp	45	29	47	8	50	58
2022-04	Rec	45	24	47	8	58	58
2022-02	Rec	43	19	47	7	53	58
2022-01	Exp	45	20	47	7	63	58
2021-11	Exp	37	14	47	7	47	30
2021-08	Exp	34	14	47	7	27	30
2021-05	Exp	36	14	47	8	39	30
2021-04	Rec	39	14	47	8	57	30
2021-02	Rec	33	8	47	7	32	30
2021-01	Exp	34	9	47	7	32	30
2020-11	Exp	35	7	47	6	39	33
2020-10	Rec	35	7	47	6	41	33
2020-08	Rec	37	5	47	7	53	33
2020-05	Rec	36	7	47	8	47	33
2020-04	Exp	34	7	47	8	36	33
2020-02	Exp	35	6	47	8	40	33
2019-11	Exp	35	9	47	9	38	30
2019-09	Rec	37	12	47	9	47	30
2019-07	Rec	41	13	47	9	72	30
2019-06	Exp	41	18	47	9	64	30
2019-04	Exp	39	16	47	9	53	30
2019-01	Exp	44	33	47	9	65	30

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023