Rankings/Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO

Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 19740Compare

Risk Rank: #229 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +4

40score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Denver's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 229th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Denver experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+16% YoY) and days on market are up +7% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Recovery

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and employment, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap62

Permits per 1,000 residents

Employmentp57

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp54

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+16% YoY) and days on market are up +7% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY

+15.9%p66

Days on Market YoY

+6.8%p61

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.9%p35

Months in status39

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.6%p14

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

+0.0%p54

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

5.25p62

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.27p45

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.1%p57

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$276Kp11

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+0.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 35.6%

5 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Denver's 10 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low6.9

10 of 10 counties scored

Denver, CO shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. Jefferson County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Denver County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Elbert County<5%	66	Elevated	0.9%	33	100	33
Jefferson CountyRisk Driver	61	Elevated	19.3%	67	89	89
Douglas County	56	Elevated	12.6%	11	78	44
Park County<5%	53	Average	0.6%	78	33	22
Arapahoe County	53	Average	22.0%	44	22	78
Adams County	47	Average	17.7%	22	67	67
Denver CountyStabilizer	42	Below Average	23.9%	0	11	100
Clear Creek County<5%	42	Below Average	0.3%	100	44	11
Gilpin County<5%	42	Below Average	0.2%	89	56	0
Broomfield County<5%	39	Below Average	2.5%	56	0	56

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	35	13	13	45	70	8
2025-10	Hyp	34	14	13	45	62	8
2025-08	Hyp	38	14	13	45	84	8
2025-05	Hyp	35	10	13	48	72	8
2025-03	Ress	38	13	13	52	82	8
2025-01	Ress	35	14	13	52	63	8
2024-12	Hyp	36	12	13	52	67	8
2024-10	Hyp	35	19	13	52	57	8
2024-07	Ress	35	8	13	54	65	8
2024-05	Ress	39	15	13	57	78	8
2024-02	Ress	36	17	13	60	56	8
2024-01	Exp	38	18	13	60	69	8
2023-11	Exp	38	14	13	56	74	8
2023-08	Rec	32	19	13	58	36	8
2023-06	Rec	32	16	13	59	36	8
2023-05	Hyp	32	12	13	59	41	8
2023-03	Hyp	32	9	13	63	38	8
2023-01	Ress	34	12	13	63	45	8
2022-11	Ress	30	11	13	62	26	8
2022-08	Ress	32	24	13	64	21	8
2022-05	Ress	40	70	13	74	16	8
2022-04	Exp	40	70	13	74	14	8
2022-02	Exp	40	65	13	71	21	8
2022-01	Rec	40	69	13	71	18	8
2021-11	Rec	38	63	12	70	16	10
2021-10	Exp	40	65	12	70	24	10
2021-08	Exp	42	71	12	73	25	10
2021-06	Rec	43	75	12	74	27	10
2021-04	Rec	47	73	12	74	55	10
2021-03	Exp	42	46	12	69	53	10
2021-01	Exp	43	51	12	69	57	10
2020-12	Rec	41	36	12	67	63	6
2020-10	Rec	39	34	12	67	56	6
2020-07	Rec	40	35	12	68	61	6
2020-06	Exp	38	32	12	67	54	6
2020-04	Exp	34	24	12	67	37	6
2020-02	Rec	30	19	12	67	17	6
2019-12	Rec	29	19	12	68	12	3
2019-09	Rec	30	22	12	69	16	3
2019-08	Hyp	30	20	12	69	16	3
2019-06	Hyp	33	34	12	69	19	3
2019-03	Hyp	39	52	12	70	35	3
2019-01	Hyp	40	64	12	70	33	3

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023