Rankings/Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO

Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 19740Compare

Risk Rank: #240 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +4

40score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Denver experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Denver's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 240th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by permits per capita and employment. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p62 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Employment

p56 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p54 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+16% YoY) and days on market are up +7% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY

+15.9%p66

Days on Market YoY

+6.8%p61

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.3%p44

Months in status39

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum15

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth54

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita62

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability47

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment56

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration7

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+0.1%	p15
Permit Growth	+0.0%	p54
Permits/1K Pop	5.25	p62
Affordability	0.27	p47
Employment	+0.1%	p56
Net AGI Migration	+$646K	p7

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+0.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY+15.9%

Days on Market YoY+6.8%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Denver's 10 counties show moderate divergence — Jefferson County carries the most risk (High Risk) while Broomfield County anchors the lower end.

Moderate12.1

10 of 10 counties scored

Denver, CO shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Jefferson County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Broomfield County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Jefferson CountyRisk Driver	82	High Risk	10.0%	67	89	89
Elbert County	55	Average	10.0%	33	100	33
Adams County	52	Average	10.0%	22	67	67
Clear Creek County	52	Average	10.0%	100	44	11
Gilpin County	48	Average	10.0%	89	56	0
Arapahoe County	48	Average	10.0%	44	22	78
Park County	44	Below Average	10.0%	78	33	22
Douglas County	44	Below Average	10.0%	11	78	44
Denver County	37	Below Average	10.0%	0	11	100
Broomfield CountyStabilizer	37	Below Average	10.0%	56	0	56

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	35	13	13	45	70	8
2025-10	Hyp	34	14	13	45	62	8
2025-08	Hyp	38	14	13	45	84	8
2025-05	Hyp	35	10	13	48	72	8
2025-03	Ress	38	13	13	52	82	8
2025-01	Ress	35	14	13	52	63	8
2024-12	Hyp	36	12	13	52	67	8
2024-10	Hyp	35	19	13	52	57	8
2024-07	Ress	35	8	13	54	65	8
2024-05	Ress	39	15	13	57	78	8
2024-02	Ress	36	17	13	60	56	8
2024-01	Exp	38	18	13	60	69	8
2023-11	Exp	38	14	13	56	74	8
2023-08	Rec	32	19	13	58	36	8
2023-06	Rec	32	16	13	59	36	8
2023-05	Hyp	32	12	13	59	41	8
2023-03	Hyp	32	9	13	63	38	8
2023-01	Ress	34	12	13	63	45	8
2022-11	Ress	30	11	13	62	26	8
2022-08	Ress	32	24	13	64	21	8
2022-05	Ress	40	70	13	74	16	8
2022-04	Exp	40	70	13	74	14	8
2022-02	Exp	40	65	13	71	21	8
2022-01	Rec	40	69	13	71	18	8
2021-11	Rec	38	63	12	70	16	10
2021-10	Exp	40	65	12	70	24	10
2021-08	Exp	42	71	12	73	25	10
2021-06	Rec	43	75	12	74	27	10
2021-04	Rec	47	73	12	74	55	10
2021-03	Exp	42	46	12	69	53	10
2021-01	Exp	43	51	12	69	57	10
2020-12	Rec	41	36	12	67	63	6
2020-10	Rec	39	34	12	67	56	6
2020-07	Rec	40	35	12	68	61	6
2020-06	Exp	38	32	12	67	54	6
2020-04	Exp	34	24	12	67	37	6
2020-02	Rec	30	19	12	67	17	6
2019-12	Rec	29	19	12	68	12	3
2019-09	Rec	30	22	12	69	16	3
2019-08	Hyp	30	20	12	69	16	3
2019-06	Hyp	33	34	12	69	19	3
2019-03	Hyp	39	52	12	70	35	3
2019-01	Hyp	40	64	12	70	33	3

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022