Rankings/Decatur, AL

Decatur, AL

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 19460Compare

Risk Rank: #258 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +4

34score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Decatur's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 258th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Decatur experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +9% pace with homes taking +5% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

3 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and migration, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permit Growthp72

YoY permit change

Migrationp49

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp32

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +9% pace with homes taking +5% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+9.3%p58

Days on Market YoY

+5.3%p59

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+3.0%p93

Months in status34

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.4%p10

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+11.9%p72

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.67p14

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.26p32

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.8%p29

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$5Kp49

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+11.9%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorManufacturing 31.2%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	26	20	10	34	26	55
2025-09	Ress	26	20	10	34	29	55
2025-07	Hyp	28	47	10	34	15	55
2025-05	Hyp	36	88	10	43	9	55
2025-04	Ress	34	78	10	43	8	55
2025-02	Ress	22	12	10	37	9	55
2024-12	Hyp	30	58	10	42	6	55
2024-11	Ress	31	63	10	42	4	55
2024-09	Ress	24	21	10	36	9	55
2024-08	Hyp	24	23	10	36	7	55
2024-06	Ress	30	44	10	41	20	55
2024-04	Ress	30	22	10	41	39	55
2024-01	Ress	40	65	10	42	59	55
2023-11	Hyp	30	28	10	21	54	55
2023-10	Exp	28	24	10	21	51	55
2023-08	Exp	30	23	10	22	57	55
2023-07	Rec	26	23	10	22	35	55
2023-05	Rec	37	85	10	26	34	55
2023-04	Hyp	37	95	10	26	24	55
2023-03	Ress	32	75	10	23	19	55
2023-01	Ress	32	63	10	23	28	55
2022-12	Hyp	42	83	10	54	39	55
2022-10	Hyp	40	77	10	54	35	55
2022-07	Ress	49	86	10	55	79	55
2022-05	Ress	42	65	10	44	67	55
2022-04	Exp	45	69	10	44	84	55
2022-03	Rec	49	76	10	48	95	55
2022-01	Rec	47	68	10	48	91	55
2021-12	Exp	50	79	10	45	92	61
2021-10	Exp	51	83	10	45	97	61
2021-07	Exp	50	76	10	43	97	61
2021-04	Exp	49	79	10	39	97	61
2021-03	Rec	40	94	10	40	25	61
2021-01	Rec	38	92	10	40	17	61
2020-12	Exp	37	88	10	42	10	60
2020-10	Exp	36	86	10	41	9	60
2020-09	Rec	34	78	10	40	8	60
2020-07	Rec	32	68	10	40	4	60
2020-06	Exp	28	51	10	34	5	60
2020-04	Exp	32	80	10	34	1	60
2020-03	Rec	36	81	10	36	17	60
2020-01	Rec	34	66	10	36	25	60
2019-11	Exp	27	32	10	35	25	50
2019-09	Exp	31	49	10	36	30	50
2019-06	Rec	28	49	10	32	20	50
2019-04	Rec	28	59	10	32	7	50
2019-03	Exp	29	67	10	34	3	50
2019-01	Exp	27	57	10	34	3	50

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023