Rankings/Dayton-Kettering-Beavercreek, OH

Dayton-Kettering-Beavercreek, OH

NeutralTier 1CBSA 19430Compare

Risk Rank: #161 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↓ -7

48score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Dayton's housing market shows average risk, ranking 161st of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Dayton has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Expansion.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permit growth, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp92

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp57

YoY permit change

Price Momentump56

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Supplementary market indicators.

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.1%p79

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+1.8%p56

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

+2.0%p57

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.62p30

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.22p7

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.1%p49

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$115Kp92

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 18.3%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Dayton's 3 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low7.0Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Dayton, OH shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. Miami County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by affordability), while Greene County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Miami CountyRisk Driver	62	Elevated	13.5%	50	50	100
Montgomery County	50	Average	65.7%	100	100	0
Greene CountyStabilizer	38	Below Average	20.8%	0	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Exp	54	91	46	8	62	92
2025-10	Exp	58	88	71	6	72	85
2025-07	Exp	52	74	71	6	49	85
2025-04	Exp	56	63	71	6	83	85
2025-01	Exp	58	72	71	6	84	85
2024-10	Exp	53	66	71	5	64	85
2024-07	Exp	50	81	71	6	28	85
2024-04	Exp	51	72	71	6	42	85
2024-01	Exp	52	72	71	5	52	85
2023-10	Exp	52	66	71	7	51	85
2023-07	Exp	60	87	71	7	78	85
2023-04	Exp	54	80	71	7	49	85
2023-01	Exp	51	55	71	7	58	85
2022-10	Exp	51	47	71	5	69	85
2022-07	Exp	47	22	71	5	68	85
2022-04	Exp	51	27	71	5	88	85
2022-01	Exp	52	33	71	5	88	85
2021-10	Exp	53	34	71	4	97	84
2021-07	Exp	53	38	71	4	94	84
2021-04	Exp	46	50	71	4	39	84
2021-01	Exp	52	67	71	3	57	84
2020-10	Exp	52	70	71	4	50	87
2020-07	Exp	54	79	71	4	53	87
2020-04	Exp	57	75	71	3	75	87
2020-01	Exp	56	80	71	3	66	87
2019-10	Exp	58	87	71	3	67	90
2019-07	Exp	58	84	71	3	73	90
2019-04	Exp	59	78	71	3	84	90
2019-01	Exp	55	53	71	3	83	90

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023