Rankings/Dayton-Kettering-Beavercreek, OH

Dayton-Kettering-Beavercreek, OH

NeutralTier 1CBSA 19430Compare

Risk Rank: #190 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↓ -6

45score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Dayton's housing market shows average risk, ranking 190th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Dayton has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Expansion.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permit growth, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp92

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp60

YoY permit change

Price Momentump52

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Supplementary market indicators.

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.3%p81

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+1.5%p52

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

+4.1%p60

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.64p30

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.22p7

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+1.1%p27

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$115Kp92

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 18.3%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Dayton's 3 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low7.0Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Dayton, OH shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. Miami County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by affordability), while Greene County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Miami CountyRisk Driver	62	Elevated	13.5%	50	50	100
Montgomery County	50	Average	65.7%	100	100	0
Greene CountyStabilizer	38	Below Average	20.8%	0	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Exp	48	56	57	7	49	92
2025-11	Exp	58	88	71	6	71	85
2025-08	Exp	53	82	71	6	43	85
2025-05	Exp	55	66	71	6	71	85
2025-02	Exp	55	67	71	6	71	85
2024-11	Exp	54	67	71	5	67	85
2024-08	Exp	53	86	71	6	42	85
2024-05	Exp	52	75	71	6	48	85
2024-02	Exp	50	64	71	5	46	85
2023-11	Exp	51	70	71	7	42	85
2023-08	Exp	56	85	71	7	61	85
2023-05	Exp	56	83	71	7	60	85
2023-02	Exp	51	56	71	7	57	85
2022-11	Exp	52	49	71	5	71	85
2022-08	Exp	48	22	71	5	78	85
2022-05	Exp	49	26	71	5	76	85
2022-02	Exp	52	33	71	5	89	85
2021-11	Exp	53	34	71	4	96	84
2021-08	Exp	52	39	71	4	87	84
2021-05	Exp	49	47	71	4	60	84
2021-02	Exp	52	64	71	3	62	84
2020-11	Exp	52	76	71	4	47	87
2020-08	Exp	55	81	71	4	58	87
2020-05	Exp	55	71	71	3	70	87
2020-02	Exp	53	73	71	3	56	87
2019-11	Exp	58	90	71	3	69	90
2019-08	Exp	59	87	71	3	75	90
2019-05	Exp	56	79	71	3	63	90
2019-02	Exp	56	54	71	3	89	90
2019-01	Exp	55	53	71	3	83	90

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023