Rankings/Dayton-Kettering-Beavercreek, OH

Dayton-Kettering-Beavercreek, OH

NeutralTier 1CBSA 19430Compare

Risk Rank: #120 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -5

52score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Dayton has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 84 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Dayton's housing market shows average risk, ranking 120th of 287 metros. The market has been in Expansion for 84 months.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and migration. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is not yet assessed and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p87 (elevated risk)

12-month HPI change

Migration

p85 (elevated risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employment

p62 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Supplementary market indicators.

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.3%p45

Months in status29

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum87

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth46

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita28

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability7

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment62

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration85

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+4.9%	p87
Permit Growth	-3.4%	p46
Permits/1K Pop	2.37	p28
Affordability	0.21	p7
Employment	+0.0%	p62
Net AGI Migration	-$92K	p85

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Internal Structure

Dayton's counties diverge significantly — Miami County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Montgomery County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High36.0Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Dayton, OH shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Miami County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Montgomery County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Miami CountyRisk Driver	83	High Risk	33.3%	100	50	100
Greene County	67	Elevated	33.3%	50	100	50
Montgomery CountyStabilizer	0	Low Risk	33.3%	0	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	58	88	71	6	71	85
2025-09	Exp	57	87	71	6	63	85
2025-06	Exp	51	62	71	6	51	85
2025-03	Exp	55	59	71	6	79	85
2024-12	Exp	57	66	71	5	84	85
2024-09	Exp	53	87	71	6	39	85
2024-06	Exp	50	77	71	6	30	85
2024-03	Exp	50	56	71	5	52	85
2023-12	Exp	51	68	71	7	44	85
2023-09	Exp	56	82	71	7	62	85
2023-06	Exp	60	88	71	7	77	85
2023-03	Exp	50	58	71	7	52	85
2022-12	Exp	52	51	71	5	70	85
2022-09	Exp	49	22	71	5	79	85
2022-06	Exp	48	26	71	5	69	85
2022-03	Exp	51	33	71	5	83	85
2021-12	Exp	52	35	71	4	91	84
2021-09	Exp	53	38	71	4	92	84
2021-06	Exp	54	43	71	4	94	84
2021-03	Exp	52	60	71	3	66	84
2020-12	Exp	54	80	71	4	51	87
2020-09	Exp	54	80	71	4	56	87
2020-06	Exp	50	67	71	3	45	87
2020-03	Exp	53	66	71	3	61	87
2019-12	Exp	58	92	71	3	66	90
2019-09	Exp	59	90	71	3	70	90
2019-06	Exp	56	78	71	3	66	90
2019-03	Exp	56	55	71	3	86	90
2019-01	Exp	55	53	71	3	83	90

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022