Rankings/Dayton-Kettering-Beavercreek, OH

Dayton-Kettering-Beavercreek, OH

NeutralTier 1CBSA 19430Compare

Risk Rank: #86 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -3

54score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Dayton's housing market shows average risk, ranking 86th of 287 metros. The market has been in Expansion for 84 months. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Dayton has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Expansion.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

84 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and price momentum, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp92

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentump91

12-month HPI change

Employmentp62

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Supplementary market indicators.

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.8%p36

Months in status29

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+5.6%p91

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-3.4%p46

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.37p27

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.21p8

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

+0.0%p62

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$115Kp92

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 18.3%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Dayton's counties diverge significantly — Miami County (Elevated) contrasts sharply with Montgomery County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High35.6Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Dayton, OH shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Miami County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Montgomery County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Greene County	75	Elevated	20.8%	50	100	50
Miami CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	13.5%	100	50	100
Montgomery CountyStabilizer	0	Low Risk	65.7%	0	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	58	88	71	6	71	85
2025-09	Exp	57	87	71	6	63	85
2025-06	Exp	51	62	71	6	51	85
2025-03	Exp	55	59	71	6	79	85
2024-12	Exp	57	66	71	5	84	85
2024-09	Exp	53	87	71	6	39	85
2024-06	Exp	50	77	71	6	30	85
2024-03	Exp	50	56	71	5	52	85
2023-12	Exp	51	68	71	7	44	85
2023-09	Exp	56	82	71	7	62	85
2023-06	Exp	60	88	71	7	77	85
2023-03	Exp	50	58	71	7	52	85
2022-12	Exp	52	51	71	5	70	85
2022-09	Exp	49	22	71	5	79	85
2022-06	Exp	48	26	71	5	69	85
2022-03	Exp	51	33	71	5	83	85
2021-12	Exp	52	35	71	4	91	84
2021-09	Exp	53	38	71	4	92	84
2021-06	Exp	54	43	71	4	94	84
2021-03	Exp	52	60	71	3	66	84
2020-12	Exp	54	80	71	4	51	87
2020-09	Exp	54	80	71	4	56	87
2020-06	Exp	50	67	71	3	45	87
2020-03	Exp	53	66	71	3	61	87
2019-12	Exp	58	92	71	3	66	90
2019-09	Exp	59	90	71	3	70	90
2019-06	Exp	56	78	71	3	66	90
2019-03	Exp	56	55	71	3	86	90
2019-01	Exp	55	53	71	3	83	90

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023