Rankings/Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL

Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 19340Compare

Risk Rank: #109 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -5

52score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Davenport's housing market shows average risk, ranking 109th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 9 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers. Valuations are also showing some stretch.

Davenport experienced a market correction from late 2024 through late 2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (+1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Home prices are outpacing rents (-3.4% rent-price ratio change), indicating some valuation compression.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

9 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Valuation Lag — Liquidity is improving but rent-price ratios remain compressed.

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and employment, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump92

12-month HPI change

Employmentp90

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migrationp69

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+0.7%p50

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p46

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Compressed—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-3.4%p20

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+5.7%p92

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-12.9%p30

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.63p13

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.24p20

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.9%p90

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$16Kp69

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-12.9%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorManufacturing 19.1%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Davenport's 4 counties show moderate divergence — Scott County carries the most risk (High Risk) while Henry County anchors the lower end.

Moderate16.3Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Davenport, IA-IL shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Scott County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Henry County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Scott CountyRisk Driver	83	High Risk	45.8%	33	100	100
Rock Island County	67	Elevated	37.4%	100	67	67
Henry CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	12.8%	67	33	33
Mercer County<5%	17	Low Risk	4.1%	0	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	62	69	90	17	95	73
2025-09	Rec	60	57	90	17	95	73
2025-06	Rec	58	51	90	18	89	73
2025-03	Hyp	56	32	90	16	98	73
2025-01	Hyp	55	29	90	16	92	73
2024-10	Ress	58	42	90	17	97	73
2024-08	Ress	60	55	90	20	91	73
2024-07	Hyp	59	51	90	19	93	73
2024-06	Exp	58	40	90	18	97	73
2024-04	Exp	62	66	90	18	95	73
2024-01	Rec	63	67	90	19	97	73
2023-11	Rec	60	69	90	14	87	73
2023-10	Exp	60	69	90	14	87	73
2023-08	Exp	63	83	90	15	89	73
2023-07	Rec	64	83	90	15	97	73
2023-05	Rec	54	34	90	12	85	73
2023-04	Ress	52	27	90	12	78	73
2023-03	Hyp	55	35	90	14	88	73
2023-02	Exp	56	38	90	14	92	73
2022-12	Exp	54	22	90	18	91	73
2022-10	Rec	52	12	90	18	90	73
2022-08	Rec	51	3	90	19	91	73
2022-07	Exp	50	2	90	19	89	73
2022-05	Exp	50	3	90	20	82	73
2022-04	Rec	48	3	90	20	75	73
2022-02	Rec	45	3	90	19	54	73
2022-01	Exp	45	5	90	19	54	73
2021-11	Exp	48	7	90	22	64	74
2021-10	Hyp	48	7	90	22	68	74
2021-09	Exp	48	8	90	25	65	74
2021-07	Exp	47	8	90	25	55	74
2021-04	Rec	50	10	90	26	71	74
2021-02	Rec	49	5	90	27	71	74
2021-01	Exp	49	5	90	27	70	74
2020-11	Exp	48	8	90	18	70	77
2020-10	Rec	48	10	90	18	65	77
2020-08	Rec	49	5	90	19	77	77
2020-05	Rec	50	12	90	19	72	77
2020-02	Exp	51	17	90	20	76	77
2019-12	Exp	51	13	90	20	84	73
2019-09	Exp	58	45	90	22	87	73
2019-06	Exp	50	8	90	21	82	73
2019-03	Exp	51	11	90	22	82	73
2019-01	Exp	51	11	90	22	80	73

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023