Rankings/Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL

Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 19340Compare

Risk Rank: #185 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -14

45score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Davenport's housing market shows average risk, ranking 185th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Davenport experienced a market correction from late 2024 through late 2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +6% pace with homes taking +0% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and price momentum, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp93

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentump69

12-month HPI change

Migrationp69

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +6% pace with homes taking +0% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+6.4%p55

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p45

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.6%p84

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+3.2%p69

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-23.4%p11

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.48p10

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.26p20

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-1.0%p93

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$16Kp69

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-23.4%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorManufacturing 19.1%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Davenport's 4 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low5.4Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Davenport, IA-IL shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. Rock Island County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Henry County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Rock Island CountyRisk Driver	58	Elevated	37.4%	0	100	67
Scott County	58	Elevated	45.8%	33	0	100
Henry CountyStabilizer	42	Below Average	12.8%	100	33	33
Mercer County<5%	42	Below Average	4.1%	67	67	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Exp	49	80	27	18	90	69
2025-12	Rec	52	92	30	20	90	69
2025-10	Rec	62	66	90	17	94	73
2025-07	Rec	58	40	90	17	97	73
2025-04	Rec	62	67	90	18	95	73
2025-03	Hyp	56	32	90	16	98	73
2025-01	Hyp	55	29	90	16	92	73
2024-10	Ress	58	42	90	17	97	73
2024-08	Ress	60	55	90	20	91	73
2024-07	Hyp	59	51	90	19	93	73
2024-06	Exp	58	40	90	18	97	73
2024-04	Exp	62	66	90	18	95	73
2024-01	Rec	63	67	90	19	97	73
2023-11	Rec	60	69	90	14	87	73
2023-10	Exp	60	69	90	14	87	73
2023-08	Exp	63	83	90	15	89	73
2023-07	Rec	64	83	90	15	97	73
2023-05	Rec	54	34	90	12	85	73
2023-04	Ress	52	27	90	12	78	73
2023-03	Hyp	55	35	90	14	88	73
2023-02	Exp	56	38	90	14	92	73
2022-12	Exp	54	22	90	18	91	73
2022-10	Rec	52	12	90	18	90	73
2022-08	Rec	51	3	90	19	91	73
2022-07	Exp	50	2	90	19	89	73
2022-05	Exp	50	3	90	20	82	73
2022-04	Rec	48	3	90	20	75	73
2022-02	Rec	45	3	90	19	54	73
2022-01	Exp	45	5	90	19	54	73
2021-11	Exp	48	7	90	22	64	74
2021-10	Hyp	48	7	90	22	68	74
2021-09	Exp	48	8	90	25	65	74
2021-07	Exp	47	8	90	25	55	74
2021-04	Rec	50	10	90	26	71	74
2021-02	Rec	49	5	90	27	71	74
2021-01	Exp	49	5	90	27	70	74
2020-11	Exp	48	8	90	18	70	77
2020-10	Rec	48	10	90	18	65	77
2020-08	Rec	49	5	90	19	77	77
2020-05	Rec	50	12	90	19	72	77
2020-02	Exp	51	17	90	20	76	77
2019-12	Exp	51	13	90	20	84	73
2019-09	Exp	58	45	90	22	87	73
2019-06	Exp	50	8	90	21	82	73
2019-03	Exp	51	11	90	22	82	73
2019-01	Exp	51	11	90	22	80	73

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023