Rankings/Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 19100Compare

Risk Rank: #259 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -5

37score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Dallas's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 259th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+11% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Dallas experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking +8% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

3 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and employment, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap86

Permits per 1,000 residents

Employmentp47

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp42

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking +8% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+10.8%p60

Days on Market YoY

+7.6%p63

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.0%p65

Months in status12

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.3%p9

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-6.8%p42

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

8.21p86

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.26p36

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.3%p47

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$3Mp0

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-6.8%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorHealth Care 13.4%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Dallas's 11 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low7.6Limited data

11 of 11 counties scored

Dallas, TX shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. Collin County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Denton County anchors the lower end (Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Collin CountyRisk Driver	72	Elevated	14.6%	60	40	90
Hunt County<5%	68	Elevated	1.4%	100	80	20
Tarrant County	55	Average	27.1%	40	70	80
Dallas County	52	Average	32.8%	70	30	100
Ellis County<5%	52	Average	2.7%	20	60	50
Parker County<5%	50	Average	2.1%	90	50	60
Denton CountyStabilizer	48	Average	12.3%	50	20	70
Johnson County<5%	45	Below Average	2.5%	80	0	40
Wise County<5%	40	Below Average	0.9%	30	100	10
Rockwall County<5%	35	Below Average	1.6%	10	10	30
Kaufman County<5%	32	Below Average	2.2%	0	90	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	40	11	56	36	49	0
2025-09	Hyp	39	10	56	36	46	0
2025-07	Hyp	42	12	56	36	58	0
2025-05	Ress	38	13	56	38	37	0
2025-03	Ress	39	17	56	42	32	0
2025-01	Hyp	42	17	56	42	50	0
2024-11	Hyp	42	24	56	45	42	0
2024-08	Hyp	40	13	56	43	38	0
2024-06	Ress	42	17	56	48	42	0
2024-04	Ress	43	18	56	48	49	0
2024-02	Hyp	41	15	56	51	39	0
2024-01	Exp	41	13	56	51	41	0
2023-11	Exp	42	13	56	53	40	0
2023-09	Rec	41	18	56	54	32	0
2023-07	Rec	39	17	56	54	21	0
2023-06	Hyp	39	18	56	56	18	0
2023-04	Hyp	38	21	56	56	9	0
2023-02	Ress	42	42	56	60	8	0
2022-12	Ress	46	65	56	60	6	0
2022-09	Ress	50	88	56	62	5	0
2022-06	Ress	50	91	56	62	5	0
2022-04	Exp	50	90	56	62	5	0
2022-03	Rec	50	86	56	59	10	0
2022-01	Rec	50	83	56	59	16	0
2021-12	Exp	49	76	56	57	15	1
2021-10	Exp	48	73	56	57	11	1
2021-07	Exp	48	70	56	55	20	1
2021-04	Rec	51	59	56	52	53	1
2021-02	Rec	44	40	56	50	31	1
2020-11	Rec	41	23	56	50	28	2
2020-08	Rec	41	17	56	50	33	2
2020-05	Exp	38	16	56	49	16	2
2020-03	Exp	38	27	56	49	8	2
2020-02	Rec	39	30	56	49	8	2
2019-12	Rec	41	44	56	51	8	2
2019-09	Rec	40	38	56	50	10	2
2019-06	Hyp	43	48	56	52	12	2
2019-04	Hyp	43	50	56	52	14	2
2019-03	Ress	43	48	56	51	16	2
2019-01	Ress	45	54	56	51	21	2

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023