Rankings/Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 19100Compare

Risk Rank: #252 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -4

38score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Dallas experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 3 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Dallas's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 252nd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+11% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by permits per capita and employment. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p86 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Employment

p47 (below average risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p42 (below average risk)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking +8% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+10.8%p60

Days on Market YoY

+7.6%p63

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.2%p68

Months in status12

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum15

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth42

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita86

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability37

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment47

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration0

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+0.1%	p15
Permit Growth	-6.8%	p42
Permits/1K Pop	8.21	p86
Affordability	0.26	p37
Employment	+0.3%	p47
Net AGI Migration	+$3M	p0

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-6.8%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+10.8%

Days on Market YoY+7.6%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 3 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Dallas's 11 counties show moderate divergence — Parker County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Rockwall County anchors the lower end.

Moderate16.1

11 of 11 counties scored

Dallas, TX shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Parker County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Rockwall County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Parker CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	9.1%	90	50	60
Dallas County	67	Elevated	9.1%	70	30	100
Hunt County	67	Elevated	9.1%	100	80	20
Tarrant County	63	Elevated	9.1%	40	70	80
Collin County	63	Elevated	9.1%	60	40	90
Wise County	47	Average	9.1%	30	100	10
Denton County	47	Average	9.1%	50	20	70
Ellis County	43	Below Average	9.1%	20	60	50
Johnson County	40	Below Average	9.1%	80	0	40
Kaufman County	30	Below Average	9.1%	0	90	0
Rockwall CountyStabilizer	17	Low Risk	9.1%	10	10	30

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	40	11	56	36	49	0
2025-09	Hyp	39	10	56	36	46	0
2025-07	Hyp	42	12	56	36	58	0
2025-05	Ress	38	13	56	38	37	0
2025-03	Ress	39	17	56	42	32	0
2025-01	Hyp	42	17	56	42	50	0
2024-11	Hyp	42	24	56	45	42	0
2024-08	Hyp	40	13	56	43	38	0
2024-06	Ress	42	17	56	48	42	0
2024-04	Ress	43	18	56	48	49	0
2024-02	Hyp	41	15	56	51	39	0
2024-01	Exp	41	13	56	51	41	0
2023-11	Exp	42	13	56	53	40	0
2023-09	Rec	41	18	56	54	32	0
2023-07	Rec	39	17	56	54	21	0
2023-06	Hyp	39	18	56	56	18	0
2023-04	Hyp	38	21	56	56	9	0
2023-02	Ress	42	42	56	60	8	0
2022-12	Ress	46	65	56	60	6	0
2022-09	Ress	50	88	56	62	5	0
2022-06	Ress	50	91	56	62	5	0
2022-04	Exp	50	90	56	62	5	0
2022-03	Rec	50	86	56	59	10	0
2022-01	Rec	50	83	56	59	16	0
2021-12	Exp	49	76	56	57	15	1
2021-10	Exp	48	73	56	57	11	1
2021-07	Exp	48	70	56	55	20	1
2021-04	Rec	51	59	56	52	53	1
2021-02	Rec	44	40	56	50	31	1
2020-11	Rec	41	23	56	50	28	2
2020-08	Rec	41	17	56	50	33	2
2020-05	Exp	38	16	56	49	16	2
2020-03	Exp	38	27	56	49	8	2
2020-02	Rec	39	30	56	49	8	2
2019-12	Rec	41	44	56	51	8	2
2019-09	Rec	40	38	56	50	10	2
2019-06	Hyp	43	48	56	52	12	2
2019-04	Hyp	43	50	56	52	14	2
2019-03	Ress	43	48	56	51	16	2
2019-01	Ress	45	54	56	51	21	2

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022