Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
Executive Summary
Crestview's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 13th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers. Valuations are also showing some stretch.
Crestview experienced a market correction from late 2023 through mid-2024. The market is currently recovering.
Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.
Home prices are outpacing rents (-4.5% rent-price ratio change), indicating some valuation compression.
Cycle Phase
Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period
Valuation Lag — Liquidity is improving but rent-price ratios remain compressed.
Key Dynamics
Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and price momentum, while permit growth provides the most support.
Top Drivers
Market Signals
Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.
Liquidity
Valuation
Factor Details
12-month HPI change — higher = overheating
YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure
Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk
Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
National Context
Credit Conditions
Credit Regime
Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.
Supply Pipeline
Supply Regime
Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.
Local Signals
Metro Permit Activity
Permit Activity
Sharp CoolingRaw signal — not the composite percentile
Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro
Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.
Employment Concentration
Employment
ModerateInternal Structure
County-level structural analysis.
County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.
Score History
| Month | Score |
|---|---|
| 2025-11 | 52 |
| 2025-09 | 50 |
| 2025-08 | 50 |
| 2025-06 | 52 |
| 2025-03 | 41 |
| 2025-01 | 35 |
| 2024-12 | 36 |
| 2024-10 | 46 |
| 2024-07 | 45 |
| 2024-05 | 40 |
| 2024-03 | 47 |
| 2023-12 | 43 |
| 2023-09 | 46 |
| 2023-08 | 45 |
| 2023-06 | 49 |
| 2023-03 | 46 |
| 2023-01 | 48 |
| 2022-10 | 50 |
| 2022-09 | 50 |
| 2022-07 | 53 |
| 2022-05 | 54 |
| 2022-03 | 56 |
| 2022-02 | 55 |
| 2021-12 | 59 |
| 2021-11 | 56 |
| 2021-09 | 53 |
| 2021-06 | 52 |
| 2021-05 | 51 |
| 2021-03 | 50 |
| 2020-12 | 51 |
| 2020-09 | 52 |
| 2020-06 | 53 |
| 2020-04 | 60 |
| 2020-03 | 50 |
| 2020-01 | 47 |
| 2019-12 | 53 |
| 2019-10 | 52 |
| 2019-09 | 54 |
| 2019-07 | 53 |
| 2019-06 | 52 |
| 2019-04 | 53 |
| 2019-03 | 54 |
| 2019-01 | 51 |