Rankings/Corpus Christi, TX

Corpus Christi, TX

NeutralTier 1CBSA 18580Compare

Risk Rank: #148 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -16

49score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Corpus Christi's housing market shows average risk, ranking 148th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+14% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Corpus Christi experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking +11% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

3 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permit growth, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp76

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp70

YoY permit change

Affordabilityp61

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking +11% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+14.0%p64

Days on Market YoY

+11.0%p69

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.9%p78

Months in status14

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

-0.5%p4

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+10.3%p70

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.91p59

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.29p61

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.8%p26

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$30Kp76

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+10.3%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 23.1%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Corpus Christi's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Aransas County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Nueces County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.8Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Corpus Christi, TX shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Aransas County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Nueces County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Aransas CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	5.5%	100	0	100
San Patricio County	50	Average	15.7%	50	100	0
Nueces CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	78.8%	0	50	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	52	4	78	59	29	82
2025-09	Hyp	53	6	78	59	35	82
2025-07	Hyp	52	10	78	59	21	82
2025-05	Ress	54	24	78	63	18	82
2025-03	Ress	71	81	78	68	59	82
2025-02	Hyp	72	63	78	68	79	82
2024-12	Hyp	65	28	78	68	72	82
2024-09	Hyp	62	16	78	65	68	82
2024-06	Hyp	66	16	78	64	94	82
2024-05	Ress	66	24	78	64	91	82
2024-03	Ress	68	60	78	70	58	82
2023-12	Hyp	54	19	78	74	10	82
2023-11	Rec	55	20	78	74	14	82
2023-10	Ress	54	20	78	74	11	82
2023-08	Hyp	58	37	78	76	13	82
2023-06	Hyp	54	20	78	73	8	82
2023-03	Ress	58	34	78	77	17	82
2023-01	Ress	64	54	78	77	34	82
2022-10	Hyp	70	58	78	76	67	82
2022-08	Ress	62	37	78	72	46	82
2022-06	Ress	70	64	78	77	57	82
2022-04	Exp	69	56	78	77	59	82
2022-02	Rec	60	21	78	73	47	82
2021-12	Rec	62	23	78	63	76	76
2021-11	Exp	60	25	78	63	61	76
2021-09	Exp	60	30	78	63	57	76
2021-06	Exp	71	46	78	68	98	76
2021-05	Rec	70	44	78	68	96	76
2021-03	Rec	70	70	78	69	68	76
2020-12	Exp	65	63	78	66	69	56
2020-10	Exp	67	63	78	66	78	56
2020-09	Rec	60	28	78	65	77	56
2020-07	Rec	59	23	78	65	71	56
2020-04	Rec	61	59	78	65	48	56
2020-02	Exp	66	46	78	65	93	56
2019-12	Exp	66	30	78	64	86	80
2019-11	Rec	66	37	78	64	77	80
2019-09	Rec	67	60	78	66	60	80
2019-06	Exp	63	18	78	65	80	80
2019-04	Exp	61	15	78	66	70	80
2019-01	Exp	63	27	78	66	68	80

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023