Rankings/Corpus Christi, TX

Corpus Christi, TX

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 18580Compare

Risk Rank: #20 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↑ +9

63score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Corpus Christi's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 20th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers. Valuations are also showing some stretch.

Corpus Christi experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Home prices are outpacing rents (-4.6% rent-price ratio change), indicating some valuation compression.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Valuation Lag — Liquidity is improving but rent-price ratios remain compressed.

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and migration, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump97

12-month HPI change

Migrationp76

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp67

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+2.9%p52

Days on Market YoY

+4.2%p57

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Compressed—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-4.6%p12

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+5.1%p97

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-3.6%p46

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.59p55

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.30p67

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.4%p35

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$30Kp76

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

-3.6%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 23.1%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Corpus Christi's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Aransas County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Nueces County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.8Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Corpus Christi, TX shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Aransas County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Nueces County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Aransas CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	5.5%	0	100	100
San Patricio County	50	Average	15.7%	100	50	0
Nueces CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	78.8%	50	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Rec	49	4	70	61	26	76
2025-10	Rec	54	6	78	59	39	82
2025-09	Hyp	53	6	78	59	35	82
2025-07	Hyp	52	10	78	59	21	82
2025-05	Ress	54	24	78	63	18	82
2025-03	Ress	71	81	78	68	59	82
2025-02	Hyp	72	63	78	68	79	82
2024-12	Hyp	65	28	78	68	72	82
2024-09	Hyp	62	16	78	65	68	82
2024-06	Hyp	66	16	78	64	94	82
2024-05	Ress	66	24	78	64	91	82
2024-03	Ress	68	60	78	70	58	82
2023-12	Hyp	54	19	78	74	10	82
2023-11	Rec	55	20	78	74	14	82
2023-10	Ress	54	20	78	74	11	82
2023-08	Hyp	58	37	78	76	13	82
2023-06	Hyp	54	20	78	73	8	82
2023-03	Ress	58	34	78	77	17	82
2023-01	Ress	64	54	78	77	34	82
2022-10	Hyp	70	58	78	76	67	82
2022-08	Ress	62	37	78	72	46	82
2022-06	Ress	70	64	78	77	57	82
2022-04	Exp	69	56	78	77	59	82
2022-02	Rec	60	21	78	73	47	82
2021-12	Rec	62	23	78	63	76	76
2021-11	Exp	60	25	78	63	61	76
2021-09	Exp	60	30	78	63	57	76
2021-06	Exp	71	46	78	68	98	76
2021-05	Rec	70	44	78	68	96	76
2021-03	Rec	70	70	78	69	68	76
2020-12	Exp	65	63	78	66	69	56
2020-10	Exp	67	63	78	66	78	56
2020-09	Rec	60	28	78	65	77	56
2020-07	Rec	59	23	78	65	71	56
2020-04	Rec	61	59	78	65	48	56
2020-02	Exp	66	46	78	65	93	56
2019-12	Exp	66	30	78	64	86	80
2019-11	Rec	66	37	78	64	77	80
2019-09	Rec	67	60	78	66	60	80
2019-06	Exp	63	18	78	65	80	80
2019-04	Exp	61	15	78	66	70	80
2019-01	Exp	63	27	78	66	68	80

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023