Rankings/Columbus, OH

Columbus, OH

NeutralTier 1CBSA 18140Compare

Risk Rank: #76 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -10

56score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Columbus experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 2 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Columbus's housing market shows average risk, ranking 76th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and permit growth. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p92 (highest risk decile)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p80 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Permits per Capita

p80 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+19% YoY) and days on market are up +9% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+19.4%p69

Days on Market YoY

+8.9%p65

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.1%p67

Months in status26

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum45

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth80

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita80

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability23

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment16

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration92

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.1%	p45
Permit Growth	+18.5%	p80
Permits/1K Pop	7.30	p80
Affordability	0.24	p23
Employment	+1.2%	p16
Net AGI Migration	-$294K	p92

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+18.5%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Heavy building into softening demand. The construction pipeline may outrun absorption — watch for inventory acceleration in coming months.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY+19.4%

Days on Market YoY+8.9%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Columbus's 10 counties show moderate divergence — Union County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Hocking County anchors the lower end.

Moderate11.7

10 of 10 counties scored

Columbus, OH shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Union County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Hocking County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Union CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	10.0%	78	78	44
Franklin County	63	Elevated	10.0%	44	44	100
Madison County	63	Elevated	10.0%	22	100	67
Delaware County	59	Elevated	10.0%	33	56	89
Fairfield County	52	Average	10.0%	56	22	78
Licking County	45	Below Average	10.0%	67	11	56
Morrow County	41	Below Average	10.0%	100	0	22
Perry County	41	Below Average	10.0%	89	33	0
Pickaway County	37	Below Average	10.0%	11	67	33
Hocking CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	10.0%	0	89	11

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	55	49	76	21	22	92
2025-10	Ress	56	53	76	21	21	92
2025-08	Hyp	57	56	76	22	26	92
2025-07	Rec	58	58	76	21	30	92
2025-06	Ress	58	64	76	23	23	92
2025-04	Ress	57	56	76	22	26	92
2025-01	Hyp	71	81	76	24	81	92
2024-11	Hyp	64	70	76	22	53	92
2024-08	Ress	60	63	76	22	36	92
2024-06	Ress	60	65	76	22	33	92
2024-05	Hyp	62	62	76	22	45	92
2024-03	Hyp	59	40	76	20	56	92
2024-01	Exp	63	60	76	20	56	92
2023-11	Exp	62	71	76	24	38	92
2023-08	Rec	62	63	76	24	44	92
2023-06	Rec	64	73	76	26	48	92
2023-04	Hyp	68	69	76	26	71	92
2023-02	Hyp	66	48	76	24	87	92
2023-01	Ress	68	52	76	24	89	92
2022-11	Ress	66	49	76	19	87	92
2022-10	Hyp	66	52	76	19	83	92
2022-09	Exp	66	67	76	21	68	92
2022-07	Ress	66	59	76	22	74	92
2022-06	Exp	63	57	76	21	61	92
2022-04	Exp	60	54	76	21	47	92
2022-01	Rec	60	49	76	21	50	92
2021-11	Rec	57	38	76	17	46	93
2021-09	Exp	60	46	76	18	55	93
2021-07	Exp	59	46	76	18	50	93
2021-04	Exp	58	61	76	17	34	93
2021-03	Rec	57	58	76	16	30	93
2021-01	Rec	57	58	76	16	31	93
2020-12	Exp	62	74	76	18	41	93
2020-10	Exp	63	77	76	18	42	93
2020-09	Rec	63	85	76	17	37	93
2020-07	Rec	62	80	76	17	37	93
2020-04	Rec	63	67	76	16	55	93
2020-01	Exp	63	83	76	15	43	93
2019-11	Exp	61	76	76	15	41	89
2019-09	Rec	64	80	76	15	56	89
2019-07	Rec	62	73	76	15	49	89
2019-04	Rec	62	72	76	15	49	89
2019-03	Exp	60	59	76	14	53	89
2019-01	Exp	62	70	76	14	53	89

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022