Rankings/Columbus, OH

Columbus, OH

NeutralTier 1CBSA 18140Compare

Risk Rank: #116 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↓ -6

52score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Columbus's housing market shows average risk, ranking 116th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+10% YoY) with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Columbus experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking -6% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permits per capita, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp96

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap72

Permits per 1,000 residents

Price Momentump47

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking -6% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+10.4%p60

Days on Market YoY

-5.7%p36

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.0%p64

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+1.5%p47

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-12.9%p30

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

6.30p72

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.25p24

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.2%p44

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$246Kp96

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-12.9%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 28%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Columbus's 10 counties show moderate divergence — Fairfield County carries the most risk (High Risk) while Licking County anchors the lower end.

Moderate9.7Limited data

10 of 10 counties scored

Columbus, OH shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Fairfield County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Licking County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Fairfield CountyRisk Driver	78	High Risk	7.5%	78	100	78
Delaware County	70	Elevated	10.4%	100	11	89
Franklin County	61	Elevated	61.3%	11	67	100
Madison County<5%	58	Elevated	2.0%	56	22	67
Pickaway County<5%	56	Elevated	2.8%	67	78	33
Morrow County<5%	47	Average	1.6%	89	44	22
Union County<5%	42	Below Average	3.1%	22	0	44
Licking CountyStabilizer	36	Below Average	8.4%	44	33	56
Perry County<5%	30	Below Average	1.6%	33	56	11
Hocking County<5%	22	Low Risk	1.3%	0	89	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Rec	58	50	80	23	17	96
2025-10	Ress	56	53	76	21	21	92
2025-08	Hyp	57	56	76	22	26	92
2025-07	Rec	58	58	76	21	30	92
2025-06	Ress	58	64	76	23	23	92
2025-04	Ress	57	56	76	22	26	92
2025-01	Hyp	71	81	76	24	81	92
2024-11	Hyp	64	70	76	22	53	92
2024-08	Ress	60	63	76	22	36	92
2024-06	Ress	60	65	76	22	33	92
2024-05	Hyp	62	62	76	22	45	92
2024-03	Hyp	59	40	76	20	56	92
2024-01	Exp	63	60	76	20	56	92
2023-11	Exp	62	71	76	24	38	92
2023-08	Rec	62	63	76	24	44	92
2023-06	Rec	64	73	76	26	48	92
2023-04	Hyp	68	69	76	26	71	92
2023-02	Hyp	66	48	76	24	87	92
2023-01	Ress	68	52	76	24	89	92
2022-11	Ress	66	49	76	19	87	92
2022-10	Hyp	66	52	76	19	83	92
2022-09	Exp	66	67	76	21	68	92
2022-07	Ress	66	59	76	22	74	92
2022-06	Exp	63	57	76	21	61	92
2022-04	Exp	60	54	76	21	47	92
2022-01	Rec	60	49	76	21	50	92
2021-11	Rec	57	38	76	17	46	93
2021-09	Exp	60	46	76	18	55	93
2021-07	Exp	59	46	76	18	50	93
2021-04	Exp	58	61	76	17	34	93
2021-03	Rec	57	58	76	16	30	93
2021-01	Rec	57	58	76	16	31	93
2020-12	Exp	62	74	76	18	41	93
2020-10	Exp	63	77	76	18	42	93
2020-09	Rec	63	85	76	17	37	93
2020-07	Rec	62	80	76	17	37	93
2020-04	Rec	63	67	76	16	55	93
2020-01	Exp	63	83	76	15	43	93
2019-11	Exp	61	76	76	15	41	89
2019-09	Rec	64	80	76	15	56	89
2019-07	Rec	62	73	76	15	49	89
2019-04	Rec	62	72	76	15	49	89
2019-03	Exp	60	59	76	14	53	89
2019-01	Exp	62	70	76	14	53	89

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023